in Pitt Football 749 Words

Welcome to Miami

In 2019 Pitt was on a four game winning streak when Miami came to town. After losing a heartbreaker in Happy Valley, Pitt had knocked off #15 UCF at home, squeaked by Delaware with backup redshirt Freshman Nick Patti under center, won a 33-30 shootout with Duke on the road, and then went on to beat Syracuse by a touchdown in the Carrier Dome. That 4-0 run had Panther nation feeling pretty good. Pretty good indeed.

Next up was a home game against a three-win Miami team whose weaknesses seemed to play right into Pitt’s strengths: The ‘Canes had one of the worst offensive lines in college football, and no quarterback to speak of. Pitt led the nation in sacks and the offense seemed to have gotten on track, scoring 35, 33 and 27 points in its last three games with Pickett under center. Said another way, five wins in a row and a national ranking was seemingly right around the corner.

Well we all know how that ended. Miami came up to Heinz field, held Pitt to 12 points and no TD’s (Pitt for the second time that season failed to score a touchdown first and goal inside the five) and Miami’s backup QB came off the bench to throw the game winning touchdown with 58 seconds left on the clock. Same old Pitt had reared its ugly head again.

And to be clear, Same Old Pitt rears its ugly head pretty often against Miami. In fact, Pitt has won just three times against the Hurricanes since 1984. Let that sink in for a moment. Three times in the last twenty-four tries. Three times. For those of you with an analytical mindset, that’s a 12.5% winning percentage. Same Old Pitt indeed.

Kenny Pickett, of course, owns one of those wins. It was his historic full-game debut in 2017 that knocked the hated ‘Canes out of playoff contention. The following year, Pitt played Miami on the road after locking up the Coastal Division championship. You’ll recall Pickett wasn’t much of a passer that year, and the beleaguered Pitt offense mustered three points (losing all-ACC Center Jimmy Morrissey to a knee injury in the previous game didn’t help, but I’m still not convinced it would have changed the outcome). Then came the aforementioned 16-12 debacle at Heinz in 2019. Last year Joey Yellen subbed for an injured Pickett in Miami Gardens, and Pitt lost 31-19.

But this year is different. Pickett is a much improved passer, and Pitt is routinely outscoring its opponents by 20 points or more. For the record, the Panthers outscored their opponents by a mere 4.5 points per game last year, and Pitt was outscored by their opponents by about a point per game both in 2019 and 2018. Meanwhile Pitt’s defense has tightened up after the Western Michigan game. They’ve given up an average of 15 points per game in their last three. (Although it’s fair to say that playing the likes of Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and this-years-version-of-Clemson is hardly a test for a defense. But…on the other hand it’s also fair to point out that WMU lost to Ball State and Toledo, scoring a combined 25 points in the process, so believe what you want to believe.)

Still, Randy Bates’ squad is confident if nothing else, and they are making plays, and Miami comes into the game starting a true Freshman quarterback and sporting a 20% chance of winning, per ESPN. Their quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke, seems to have found his sea legs against then-number-eighteen NC State, shredding what was a pretty competent defense to the tune of 325 yards and four TD’s last week. It was Van Dyke’s third complete game against power 5 competition, and you could consider it a breakout.

(Image courtesy of ESPN)

And so… assuming the young Van Dyke doesn’t regress, Pitt will have its hands full on Saturday, as it always does, against the hated ‘Canes. The hope of course is that Van Dyke does regress, or that the road game knocks him out of his rhythm, or at the very least Pitt’s blitz package does. Or that Miami has a hangover from an emotional win against a ranked team. Or that a team that is starting 12 true and redshirt freshman experiences the ups and downs of starting 12 true and redshirt freshman. But the bigger hope is that Pitt simply plays to potential. Stars and recruiting aside, it’s not a stretch to say that the Panthers are the better team this year, if they can just avoid the Same Old Pitfalls.

Hail to Pitt

Michaelangelo Monteleone

72 thoughts on “Welcome to Miami”

  2. Great job, MM. As usual. Mark Twain wrote that faith. to paraphrase, is believing in something that isn’t so. The same kind of thinking can apply to hope, wishing for something that can’t be. Maybe this year that kind of cynicism regarding Pitt football can be dispelled with another big time effort. Mark Twain was very sharp, but he wasn’t always right. Go, Pitt!

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Half way through my morning routine of reading college football sites with Packer & Durham on the TV,

    This is an article from ESPN by a writer identified as an “analysis”. He explains why Pitt is ranked #6 in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). I don’t know much about how FPI is constructed but this does get give some good hints. I thought it was a good read.

    https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/weeklyscenario102921/why-pittsburgh-panthers-legitimate-college-football-playoff-chance

    Liked by 5 people

    1. excellent article P-cF

      getting amped for another sleepless one tonight

      I’m maybe the exception but prefer the noon game when I have a high level of anticipation for it

      hard to believe we’re here considering how I felt exiting Heinz Sept 18th,,, was that this year? 🙂

      Liked by 2 people

    2. Most surprising from the article is this: “Pitt ranks eighth in offensive efficiency, fifth in defensive efficiency and 105th in special teams efficiency, for a rank of fifth overall.”

      DEFENSE ranked ahead of this Pitt offense in efficiency?,,,, maybe someone should recheck that math 🙂

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      1. In Columbia, SC now to watch grandson last regular season game. Thought about your reply on the way down. I have come to the conclusion that ESPN uses more than basic stats (the kind of stats I use and we understand). Maybe stuff like 3’rd & 4’th down defensive efficiency & where on the field, Red zone defense efficiency and type of points allowed. Probably a lot of other stuff in the makeup of their rankings.

        I enjoy reading stats by Pro Football Focus (PFF) and the S&P+ people. But since I can’t duplicate their results, I have an ingrained bias against taking any of them seriously as they do.

        So fun to read, pick up hints of what they use and try to relate that limited knowledge to my own perspective.

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      3. I think the FPI formula is supposed to be predictive, as opposed to just a way of interpreting what has already happened. So, there’s a recency bias where games from earlier in the season are weighted less heavily than later contests. If Pitt’s defense continues its recent solid play, the WMU debacle should have less impact on the FPI ranking than on conventional stats where it will always be part of a 12-game average.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. I don’t necessarily consider this game as much as a trap game but just another Miami game .. meaning they have more talent (and has had since 84), and it depends how focused they are. Note that the 3 Pitt wins in the past 24 years all came when Pitt was a decided underdog

    Pitt has already beaten 2 teams this year that had the better talent because Pitt was the better team.

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Thanks for the great write up Maestro. It made me feel better to be reminded that last years loss was with Joey Yellen under center. K8 starting should be good for 14 more points.
    On a personal note, I woke up with a sore throat and headache so looks like I ‘m a scratch for tomorrow’s game.

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  7. No one should be shocked by Pitt’s record versus Miami since 1984.

    No chance Pitt was beating the Canes from 1984-2003. Miami had much better teams, QBs and coaches and Pitt got that one win in 1997 because the Canes were hit with probation. Kudos to Walt and that team for stepping up that Thursday night.

    A tougher pill for some Pitt fans to swallow: Miami may have had better graduation rates than Pitt, too. I have no proof, but Jimmy Johnson raised the rate to 77 percent. Was Pitt attaining that level? With all the attrition in the 90s with those losing Pitt teams (thanks BOT) I’m guessing Miami stayed ahead of Pitt that decade as well.

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  8. Another great post MM. Thanks. Someday you have to do one of your “Press Conference” posts—what did the Nuzz say and what did he really mean? They were classics.
    pmdH2P

    Liked by 5 people

  9. So much hype about Pitt this week! So many interviews with Pickett and Narduzzi! Pitt’s abysmal record against Miami. This is another opportunity for this year’s Pitt football team to say none of that matters anymore! Pitt needs to continue to overcome the demons of the past as they continue their march to the ACC Championship game. Listen to Narduzzzi: The next game is the most important one of the season!

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    1. Hah. And, even if you know for certain what the weather will be, then you have to figure out who benefits and who suffers from that weather. Takes way too much energy.
      pmdH2P

      Liked by 1 person

  11. I posted a few days ago about the ACC Network being on YouTube TV. If you have a good internet connection, it is worth trying. Includes local TV stations, etc. You can sign up for a free trial. That would get you the game on Saturday. Then you can cancel.
    pmdH2P

    Liked by 2 people

    2. I have YTTV and love it. Use it with Roku on one tv and a Chromecast on another. 200mb speed is plenty fast enough.

      Like

  14. This isn’t a trap game. Trap games happen against teams you underestimate. Miami has beaten Pitt, this should be a revenge game for Pitt.

    Does Miami have better talent? Who said? Rivals, which is basically people that never coached and I would guess never played college football. Miami’s reputation has always been they have no discipline, they aren’t team players. Maybe that is why their imaginary talent never translates to the field.

    “Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work.” 😀

    Liked by 3 people

    2. I agree, NRS. As Goethe put it: “Talent develops in quiet places, character in the full current of human life.” Talent without character is for loners, not football players.

      Liked by 2 people

  15. Pitt is going to have to learn to play as the favorite, which is much more difficult motivation wise than playing as an underdog. This is uncharted territory for this team until this year. Thankfully, Pickett seems to be always motivated and is capable of firing up his team.

    With all of the talk about offense, I think this team is going to need to rely on the defense at some point to pull out a win. If Izzy and Addison can’t play, that may take a TD or more off the board. Pitt needs to have a big game by the defense ant to force a couple of turnovers from this young QB.

    Liked by 3 people

  16. If we lose because of the weather and Kenny hand size I will be very upset…
    Oh wait…if Kenny’s hands are small that means……………………………yep, his feet are probably small too and can’t run well in slippery conditions due to diminished overall traction.😎
    BTW, Mel Kiper has Kenny as #1 QB and #15 player overall.
    Hope he’s correct…
    H2KP

    Liked by 6 people

      2. Someone commented on the audio quality of Pitt produced interviews being bad. Add fox interviews to the list. Notice the low audio sound during the interview and commercial sound the last seconds or so.

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  17. I could not figure out a way to disagree with anything you wrote Michael. Spot on. But, despite the fact that this is Miami, my confidence remains high.
    As a side note, for better or for worse, in addition to probably making himself a lot more money next year for sticking around for year 5, Pickett may have saved Whipple’s and Borbely’s jobs (assuming, of course, the rest of the year goes well).

    Liked by 3 people

  18. Excellent article, MM! Thank you for helping out – hats off to Richard, Erie and you for your contributions to the POV, and thoughts and prayers for Reed and his son.

    For some reason, I don’t seem to relate to the term “hated” Canes. I guess I just pretty much expect them to have the better roster and so I pretty much always expect them to beat Pitt.

    We get some nice players from Florida, so imagine the players Miami gets. And add to that the allure of Miami to top northern players…

    Against all that, we have Kenneth Shane Pickett, an improved OLine, some good WRs (when healthy), some decent backs and TEs, and an improving defense (though lacking as many splash-play sacks this season).

    I’m expecting a dog-fight (Panther-fight?). A real nerve-rattling, high-blood-pressure inducing down-to-the-wire competition.

    Somehow I can see Kenneth Shane doing enough to pull it out, but oh my….🤔

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Since a large number of Pitt roster is from Florida, is it possible that the Pitt players have something to prove in not receiving offers from Miami (Kancey & Brendon Hill)?

      Liked by 4 people

    1. The current Miami QB gets the ball out early because he almost always throws to the receiver the play calls for. Thus he is not sitting back in the pocket surveying the field much. Under that scenario the pass rush may be ineffective in most cases. Stopping the rush and getting their hands up may actually be more effective for our DL in tomorrows game. Not something Pitt is used to doing on their many blitz rushes. Hope I’m wrong but the Pitt blitz may not work tomorrow and we will have to hope Van Dyke is inaccurate in his throws throughout the game.

      Like

  23. I read somewhere that Pitt has 7 players from Florida who has started on defense this year, and Keshon Camp was the only one who received an offer from Miami

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

    Liked by 2 people

  24. What you describe, jrnpitt, is a good scenario for pick offs by the LBs and DBs. If Van Dyke gets happy feet, or feels he must have a quick release, then the corners in man coverage should get a couple of interceptions.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Nervous Nelly predicts Miami 21 – Pitt 13.

    In beautiful Sunny 80 degree weather…. Ok maybe some wind! I’ll go take my pill now!

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  26. One of the recent articles on Miami sounded like Diaz is cutting back on high school recruits and targeting the transfer portal. Seems like an act of desperation to keep his job.

    Liked by 1 person

  27. Dan, be sure to get a good night’s rest tonight. We need you on the clock at game time! And no pacing…not good for the knee.

    Liked by 2 people

  28. Hate to disagree VOR, but Dan has to pace. I’ve bad both knees replaced and walking/pacing was encouraged. Now at my age, those two new (10 yrs. old) knees are the only parts of my body that still work well!!

    And Dan, if you’re taking that pill, maybe you’ll need to pace to stay awake?😁

    Liked by 2 people

    1. That is really bad & sad news. Played against Tom in HS and around the County during the summer leagues.
      We will certainly miss his leadership on the BoT. RiP !

      Like

  31. Pitt volleyball defeats Wake Forest in a three set sweep. Coach Fisher used some different players in the match. He replaced Leketor Member-Meneh with Valeria Vazquez Gomez in the 3rd set. Vazquez Gomez showed she has regained full strength in her right arm with some cannon kills. Glad she is once again 100%.

    In the first set our freshman setter, Rachel Fairbanks, was put into the game as a setter when it looked as if Pitt had the set pretty well sewn up. That did not work out so well as the set ended with Wake Forest closing the gap to 24-20 before Pitt won the set 25-20. In the second set Cat Flood played in the front row as an outside hitter which is her natural position.

    By far the strangest move by Coach Fisher was Pitt using Rachel Fairbanks as a outside hitter on the front line. During this portion of the set there was always another Pitt setter on the court. I prefer not to even speculate on what was going on with this move.

    Pitt plays Virginia Tech at the Fitz on Sunday at 1:00 PM. If you are in town, it would be worth your while to go see the #4 team in the nation!

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Rachel is a serving specialist for Coach Fisher. Watch that whenever she goes in she immediately serves, then comes out at the next opportunity.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. I am aware of that. This time she stayed on the floor and continued to play on the front line as an outside hitter. Pitt had someone else serving while Rachel was on the front line.

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  33. I’m saddened and shocked. While I had my issues with him, I am just sad. This is just awful. Man, crap!

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  35. Losing Tom Richards was a lightning bolt out of the blue. A bad one. At my age, I’m getting used to these “surprises”. I pray for five friends who have various stages of cancer. Yet, it’s these deaths out of the blue that hurt the most. I never met Tom but was good friends and grew up with teammate Mickey Martin who spoke highly of him.
    Certainly puts the big game tomorrow in perspective!

    RIP Tom

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Good win by the men’s soccer team, and a very meaningful one at that. With this win, the team wins the Coastal Division and earns the #1 seed for the ACC tournament.

      Go Pitt!

      Liked by 2 people

    1. What’s with the picture in the article. Jerry DePaola opened a book and took a picture of a page with his phone? Too lazy to scan it or get one from Pitt. Show some respect Jerry! Geez.

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  40. Last week it was the Clemson monkee off our back, this week it is the Miami gorilla on our back.
    Let’s continue to bury SOP, and beat on that gorilla.
    Miami is loaded with freshmen, hopefully our experience wins out.
    Good chance the weather holds if KDKA is right.
    Looking forward to seeing Fran, Wolfe and JoeL, our magnificent POV hosts extraordinaire in a
    couple hours.
    Be there!

    Liked by 1 person

  41. It’s game day – anyone know who the honorary captain is today?

    How about the status of Addison or Izzy?

    Team colors for the day? The U announced white with green letters. Guessing Pitt will be in blue or steel grey.

    I’m ready for some FB – hoping the team is ready too.

    Lastly, this 2021 was punched in the mouth three times so far this season and won 2 of the 3. The only blemish is the WMU game – the national pundits continue to say that game is a head scratcher. Do you think?

    Let’s Go Pitt!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Don’t care what Pitt wears, just win!

      No prediction, but I think Pitt puts up at least 35 today. This is no Clemson D. Big day for Hot Rod running the ball and the TEs.

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  42. Tweet from the ACCN: (there is a cool video too, but I did not want to blow up the blog by post a space eating file.

    He is one of the best QBs in
    @Pitt_FB
    history and his story is still being written.

    No. 8️⃣
    @kennypickett10
    🎯

    Liked by 2 people

  43. Assuming Miami’s defense isn’t as good as Clemson’s but their offense is better, I will go with a Pitt win at 35-24 today!

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  45. Don’t know if this is good or bad, but Johnny McGonigal, who covers Pitt for the PG, has nailed his predictions for the last several Pitt games.

    And this week he has Pitt by two TDs. Go Johnny Football!

    Go Pitt.

    Like

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