Don’t forget we have Fran’s POV Tailgate going on in parking Lot Red5A – between the Red parking garage and the Residence Inn on General Robinson Street.  Tailgate starts 10:30 am when the gates open…Fran now drives a silver 4Runner SUV.  POV and Pitt script flags will be flying. Red lot 5A and I’ll limp over from downtown around noon or a bit after.

OK – season’s opener and who are we playing?  Well that would be Head Coach Greg Gattuso and his D1 FCS Albany Great Danes of the  Colonial Athletic Association.  Here is an overview of the team from ESPN.

The ‘Danes were 4-8 last season but I would have loved to watch some of their games.  If you like defense you would have enjoyed their match against Elon where they came up short on a 6-0 score.  Or how about this?  In their game against Maine the final score was 12-10 with the ‘Danes sniffing the Black Bears’ butts.  Fun!!

Albany wasn’t a that good last season – here are their stats as compared to the rest of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS).  Burt they did excel in overall defense (9th nationally) in giving up only 282 yards per game and good at scoring Defense (17th) giving up only 17.7 ppg.  Not too shabby for a 4-7 team but you might expect that from a defensive minded Gattuso.

Obviously their offense was poor where they did a 180 from their good defense with being 104th in Scoring Offense (17.4 ppg) and 108th in Total Offense at only 273 ypg.

But where they made their mark was with 19 Turnovers gained including 15 opponent’s fumbles recovered…so let’s hope the staff saw that and pushed ball security hard in this last week of practice.  Because if Albany is going to keep this game close or – even possibly win – it will be because of Pitt turnovers.

This should be a good game to watch.  Vegas hasn’t a line on it that I can find but ESPN came out this week with Pitt giving 24 points.  I’ll take Albany getting 24 and do think it will be a closer game than some fans have written.  I believe we’ll win but, as I did before the YSU game last opener, I’ll also say let’s not overlook this team.  The Great Danes’ bite just might be as bad as its bark.

Reeds Pick: Pitt 27 – Albany 13

Editor’s Note: I’ll grab some of this games predictions by our readers off of the “Predictions” article published on Thursday and list them.  But if you haven’t done so yet put your own predictions for the Panthers vs Great Danes match in a comment for the world to see.

Also – this will serve as the game thread for saturday.  Looking forward to see all at Frans tailgate…

Thanks and…

HTP!!

 

 

 

It’s that time of year again – a couple of days before the season opener and our favorite team has broken camp and are in game week preparation.  That means it’s time for The Pitt POV , its readers and its commenters to put their thoughts about the 2018 version of the team, players and coaching staff out in public for all to read.  First off here is the “Predictions Card” I passed out at the 2nd Annual POV Gold Tournament.

As you can see it hits a lot of issues and I put it in this format so you can copy and past into your comment if you wish.

GOOD LUCK AND HAIL TO PITT!!!

☻What will be Pitt’s season record?

☻ What will be Pitt’s ACC record?

☻Will Pitt win a Bowl Game?

☻Will Pitt’s QB2 throw a TD pass?

☻Pitt’s Leading Rusher, Yards Made and How Many TDs?

☻Pitt’s Leading Receive, # of Catches, Yards & How Many TDs?

☻Pitt’s Leading Tackler? How Many?

☻ Pitt’s Sacks Leader?  How Many?

☻Pitt’s Interceptions Leader? How Many?

☻Pitt’s Offensive Points Per Game Average?

☻Pitt’s Defensive Points Per Game Average?

☻Opponent’s Rushing Yards Per Game?

☻Opponent’s Passing Yards Per Game?

☻Who Will Be Pitt’s Offensive MVP?

☻Who Will Be Pitt’s Defensive MVP?

☻Will Pat Narduzzi Scream at a Coach on the sideline?

☻How Many times Will He Do It?

☻What will be the score of the Pitt Panthers vs Albany Great Danes game?

So with that here are some of the tallied results of the prediction cards I got back from the golfers – pretty interest stuff actually and you will be able to see the difference between how our fans felt in April as opposed to now after fall camp is over – they will be much more optimistic in their comments on this thread then earlier I think.

I filled the table out not with every actual answer but to give readers a flavor of what the combined answers were (the “Semi-Totals” on last row of each table). For instance under “Season Record” 9-4 got 1 vote and 6-6 got 7 votes as the votes are in parentheses.

The answers in red are what Reed thinks will happen.

Hope you all can read that.  Let us all know what you think about the upcoming season and we’ll look back at this in January to see how well we knew, or thought we knew, the 2018 version of the Panthers.

So for my season W/L total I feel we will win five games and possible six.  I don’t see us winning more than that or less than that.  I base that on the Offensive Line being poor (maybe terrible) and the defensive front seven getting the same or less pressure on the QB which will keep our opponent’s passing yardage high like it was last season.

Two things of note happened since spring ball that I think helps the team.  WR Taysir Mack being eligible and us getting QB Jeff George, JR on roster.  I am firmly convinced George will be pushed up to the QB2 spot as soon as possible and that makes me feel a whole lot better than Town going in if Pickett gets injured.

So 5-7 on the season feels right to me – 6-6 at the best.  Let’s hope I’m off base with this but I called for five wins last year at this time and that came true.

As far as the opening match against Albany I’m calling it: Pitt 28 – Albany 21.  I am absolutely not overlooking this game.  I stated last season that YSU was going to give us problems and I won’t be surprised if we have score points late in the game to win this Albany match also.

HTP!!

Reed’s Picks

☻What will be Pitt’s season record? 

5-7

☻ What will be Pitt’s ACC record?

4-4

☻Will Pitt win a Bowl Game? 

No

☻Will Pitt’s QB2 throw a TD pass? 

Yes

☻Pitt’s Leading Rusher, Yards Made and How Many TDs?

Ollison, 900, 10 TDs

☻Pitt’s Leading Receive, # of Catches, Yards & How Many TDs?

Araujo-Lopes, 55, 550 yds

☻Pitt’s Leading Tackler? How Many? 

Idowu, 93

☻ Pitt’s Sacks Leader?  How Many? 

Idowu, 6

☻Pitt’s Interceptions Leader? How Many?

Ford 3

☻Pitt’s Offensive Points Per Game Average?

26.5

☻Pitt’s Defensive Points Per Game Average?

28.6

☻Opponent’s Rushing Yards Per Game?

135

☻Opponent’s Passing Yards Per Game?

245

☻Who Will Be Pitt’s Offensive MVP?

Pickett

☻Who Will Be Pitt’s Defensive MVP?

Idowu

☻Will Pat Narduzzi Scream at a Coach on the sideline?

Yes

☻How Many times Will He Do It?

Lots

 

 

Here is a good article by Jay (6&34) who is a reader and commenter on the POV…

With the first game of the season less than a week away, the tension and apprehension, optimism and pessimism mounts. At this point it’s all about The Team. How good are they? Everyone – all the Negativos and Optimistos are about to find out if not this coming weekend the weekend after.

The Negativos have every right to think they are right to be negative. Pitt is coming off a rough 5 and 7 season with a terrible SOP 2nd half against Nothh Carolina in game ten. I was by myself watching the game on my computer using my Hot Spot connection that had insufficient bandwidth. It was one of my worst sports viewing experiences ever because it seemed to confirm the growing conviction that our optimism for the Pat Narduzzi Era was misplaced.

I am big on sports statistics but in football statistics require more context to best understand what the data means than for example baseball. This is not to say that statistics in football are meaningless. If your team does not have a lot of rushing yards that is meaningful information but it may not mean whatsoever that your running backs are no good because the problem may be the offensive line.

Or your primary running back may be good but the statistics lead you to think he is the greatest running back ever ala Ron Dayne some years back for Wisconsin. Or for that matter with Melvin Gordon just a few years ago.  Or with Darrin Hall for a few consecutive games for Pitt just last year where the other teams run stopping skills were poor.

But there is one statistic in football that does matter and it’s called the “season record”. Our Commander likes to say the “game is played on the field” and I am pretty sure to some extent what he means is that there are 12 games to a season and you may win some against “better” teams and you will lose some against weaker teams but the idea is to win more games you should lose, lose fewer games than you should win and most importantly win as many games that are toss ups as you can.

Certainly Pitt’s schedule is tough this year. But a decent team can beat a very good team on any given Saturday. Pitt Nation knows that from its experience these past two seasons.

What Pitt Nation has not experienced in quite some time is Pitt winning just about all the games that are toss-ups or which Pitt is a touchdown or less underdog.

I don’t know what the odds would be today for the Pitt-UCF game but irrespective of what those odds would be Pitt had better win that game if this mildly optimistic Optimisto is going to keep thinking that Pat Narduzzi knows what he is doing. I am a big believer that many of the Negativos fail to either recognize the structural problems that work against our head coach or just fail to give these problems the weight they deserve. I do.

And I judge him with these problems in mind. But UCF has structural problems too – significant ones and it managed to win those games last year. . And barring major injuries to Pitt between now and that game, to my mind if I am going to continue to think that Pat Narduzzi knows what it’s doing, Pitt better win that game.

And Pitt better beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest and every team that it will be favored to win (not saying it will be favored to win these games). If Pat Narduzzi knows what he is doing Pitt better win those games.

Right now I am thinking that Pitt will win those games. I think that because to my mind in college football how many returning starters and senior starters (especially 5th year seniors) are on the team is a hugely important statistic. I believe this not just because it is a generally recognized significant predictor of success or failure but because of the underlying reason why it is. College football is played by man-boys.

I remember a few years back a Pitt coach had said that the biggest jump in sports is from high school to Power 5 football. In making that case I think he said that in high school you may be playing against a tough kid weighing 150 lbs at center but in Power 5 football there’s no kid at center – there’s a 300 lb man.

That 300 lb. man may have weighed 300 lbs when his first Power 5 game began and he stood on the sidelines as a true freshman but we all know that five years later that 300 lbs. of freshman body was a very different 300 lbs. five years later. I don’t have a clue what the qualitative boy to man improvement rate is but I do know that whether it’s four or five years later those 300 lbs have been transformed.

Nor do I know how to measure the incremental improvement in a player’s ability that is derived from knowledge gained from experience. But I do know that such knowledge is critically important and a very real factor in a player’s capability especially with certain skill positions and limiting mistakes.

And although some players develop more slowly than others – and I guess some players can regress, but it’s the players that do improve from physical and knowledge development that play, so they are the ones that matter.

Then there is an individual player and team’s desire to win. Whether we call that “getting a team ready to play” or character, we all know that in college football this is real. Pitt had that in the Miami, Clemson and 2016 PSU games. If the team can be up for those games why can’t it be up for twelve games? And if it’s not whose fault is that?

So does Pat Narduzzi know what he’s doing?

We are about to find out because whether we think the schedule is too tough or this is not fully his team yet because he has only recruited for 2.5 years for this team ((Editor’s Note: Should read 3.5. Narduzzi has 3 full recruiting classes and 7 of 15 recruits in the class of 2015 committed to play for Narduzzi), enough of the players are his either because he recruited them or he has had enough time to mold them. And as we can all agree, the game is played on the field and it’s almost game time.

HTP!!

Here is a very well researched and well written article by our frequent commenter “Michelangelo”

“I think I could describe the perfect quarterback. Take a little piece of everybody. Take John Elway’s arm, Dan Marino’s release, maybe Troy Aikman’s drop-back, Brett Favre’s scrambling ability, Joe Montana’s two-minute poise and, naturally, my speed.” –  Peyton Manning

There has been a lot of hype this spring around Kenny Pickett, and we all know why.  After ten games of mostly inept quarterback play last season (with the exception of Rice…) Pickett came in and gave us a tantalizingly short glimpse of what competent quarterback play looked like.  And thus the hype train began.

The question is, as a sophomore and a first year starter, what is Kenny Pickett’s ceiling?  Sure, everyone is saying the right things on the Southside.  Teddy Bridgewater comparisons have been made.  But I am a believer in facts, not coachspeak, and right now the only facts we have are history.   So let’s look back at the stats of young first-year Pitt quarterbacks and see if we can get a sense for what Pickett might do in 2018.

But before we dive into these stats, I would like to point out a couple of things:

1. Dan Marino played in a different era. We all know he’s a legend and the best quarterback on the page, so I don’t want to hear anything about that.
2. On the opposite side of the coin we all know that Tyler Palko played under Walt Harris who is a noted passing game guru, and so it’s probably unfair to think that Kenny will replicate these numbers in what appears to be shaping up as a run-first offense in 2018.

Let’s move on to the observations.

• First of all it’s clear that the two sophomore quarterbacks on the page were statistically better than the freshman. That is a good sign.
• Second, it’s a pretty good bet that Pickett will throw no more than 16 touchdowns. The only person to do that was Palko and I’ve already pointed out that he played in pass-first system. Still 16 TD’s is nearly a 50% improvement over last year, and equates to about +3 PPG, so I would take that.
  • There is a *chance* that KP throws 20+ TD’s. Wouldn’t that be nice?  The Data suggests there is about a 20% chance that happens.
• Pickett will probably throw 8-9 interceptions. With the exception of Alex “Gunslinger” Van Pelt, 8-9 int’s is a pretty consistent average here.    Yes, Yes I know that Narduzzi said that Pickett hasn’t thrown an interception all camp, but lets be real here.  That’s camp, and that’s Pat talking.  Besides nobody has thrown less than 7 int’s in the last 39 years.
• Yards Per Attempt (Y/A) will probably finish around 7.4 – 7.5. Lot of consistency here throughout history.  However Kenny’s Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A on the chart.  This stat takes TD’s and INT’s into account) will probably be a tick higher.  Notice how the Sophomore Adjusted Yards per Attempt is higher than the Freshman number by more than half a yard.  Another good sign.
• Lastly (and this is somewhat dependent on system and playcalling) the data predicts Pickett will throw for somewhere between 2600 – 2900 yards. If he can finish at the higher end of this range, that would be a slight uptick from last year.  Of course if you factor the Rice game out of 2017 Kenny’s yardage total would be a nice increase.

So based on all of that I’d say it’s a pretty good bet that Kenny posts a stat line of 2700 yds, 16 TD’s and 7 ints, with a rating of around 136.  That’s not a bad line for a first year quarterback, and it’s an improvement over 2017.  If the defense plays well, and the running game is working, it should be enough for 7 wins, maybe 8.

Of course there is always the chance that Kenny is a generational quarterback.  It’s a slim chance (like less than 1%), but lightning strikes do happen. And to that end, I’ll leave you with Teddy Bridgewater’s freshman and sophomore seasons… enjoy.

Editor’s Note:  Here are the passing stats for us last season…  just about anything is an improvement.