Next up on Pitt’s ACC schedule are the Virginia Cavaliers.

But first a POV public service announcement. Do not forget the FrankCan POV golf gathering. Link for article with details below.

FrankCam Cup Golf Announcement (pittpov.com)

Still spelled wrong in the linked title.

Virginia has a new head coach. After the abrupt and unexpected resignation of Bronco Mendenhall, the Wahoos hired ex Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott. This will be his first season as a head coach. He has hired Desmond Kitchens (Atlanta Falcons) as his offensive coordinator and John Rudzinski (Air Force Falcons) as his defensive coordinator. What, no Bowling Green Falcons coaches available?

At Air Force, Rudzinski lead a defense that finished as the 2021 # 4 FBS team in total defense allowing on average 296.5 yards per game.

Kitchens has mainly been a position coach. He was the offensive coordinator at both Vanderbilt and NC State but only for one season at each team. Since Elliot called plays at Clemson, I believe Kitchens is what his title is and is not responsible for play calling.

Virginia’s 2021 results and the 2022 schedule.

Nothing unusual on the schedule except for having the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers during the annual SoCon weekend. Do they not realize that is the weekend you schedule your FCS opponent or at least Old Dominion before a Thanksgiving rivalry game?

Here are the Rivals 5.6 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

Virginia under Mendenhall was not a recruiting powerhouse. Mendenhall’s best class was the 2021 class. It featured three 5.8, 4-stars and two 5.7, 3-stars. The 2021 class was the second recruiting class after the 2019 Coastal division championship. One of the ’21 5.7’s entered the TP (to LSU) this year.

As an aside, Mendenhall’s highest ranked commitment was a 6.0, 4-star OT in the 2020 class. He never signed as he took a two year hiatus to do a missionary stint. Upon learning of Mendenhall’s resignation, he ended up committing to Michigan.

Maize&BlueReview – The improbable story of how Michigan landed 4-star OT Andrew Gentry (rivals.com)

Speaking of the TP, the Cav’s lost 19 players to the TP – eleven from the offense, eight on the defense. The latest TP entry was 6/10/22. Look for a lot of light blue (eligibility) and pink (TP entry) in the charts.

Head Coach Tony Elliot, during the ACC media days, admits he did not do an excellent job of selling his vision to the departed. He was able to talk two players into returning.

Virginia, to staunch those losses, added eight from the TP. Four each on offense (WR, RB and two OLinemen), and defense ( All DL). Three of the pickups were from FCS schools. Only one is in the final year of eligibility.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the 2021 All ACC teams. I have added a new stat –  Athlon’s 2022 preseason All ACC Conference’s (four teams). I only found two players on the Phil Steele All ACC team by reading the Virginia athletic department site (for Non-Phil Steele watch list articles).

Most of the Hoos star players are back, but if you look you can see the start of lost production.

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart. I also added Kenny Pickett’s stats for comparison.

Armstrong is one of the top returning QB’s in the ACC and FBS football.

Wahoo running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production summary for Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Louisville, UNC, Syracuse, and Virginia.

Virginia only lost around a third of their skilled players production. The starting WR group is intact. They will miss starting TE Jelani Woods. His backup will have to produce.

WR Wicks is one of the three best returning receivers in the ACC. Even if the media covering the ACC media days did not vote for him. (Flowers BC, A.T Perry Wake, and Josh Downs UNC).

The RB group leading returning rushers are QB Armstrong and “Football Player” Keyteon Thompson. Virginia does have experienced backups. I expect new HC Tony Elliott will want a more robust rush game. The prior offensive coordinator makes Whipple look likes he actually believed and used a robust rush attack.

After all that, it seems like the Virginia offense will keep rocking. But we need to review the third leg of the stool – the Oline.

What does the Oline stats tell us? I added Pitt allowed sacks and tackles for loss.

I hope you see the problem. The Wahoos need to totally rebuild their Oline. I believe it was the Oline that HCTE was referring to in not selling his vision.

Only one player with two starts return and limited game experience of the balance. They did pickup two FCS OLinemen from the TP. The Dartmouth player was All Ivy. The Lehigh player started and was a Rivals 5.6, 3-star.

Last year Virginia’s Oline allowed 71 TFL’s (NCAA #73). They gave up 40 sacks (#119). There is a comparison to Pitt near the bottom of the above chart.

At the bottom of the chart is a Pass/Run/(Sacks) percentage of plays.

Pitt will have this problem next year but that is a next year known problem. This year it could be a lot harder for Armstrong to put up the stats he did during the ’21 season.

On to the defensive review.

Virginia had 49 players make a defensive stat. But twelve of them were offensive players. Three were special teams player. That leaves 34 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and eleven players who did not make at least four or more tackles.

The below chart includes 24 players- ten DB’s, six DL’s and eight LB’s making up (and I mean made up) a “4 tackles two deep.” I did lower my goal of ten tackles to four to make a “two deep.”

Using the column “Tot”(al Tackles) Virginia’s returning defensive production was at 56.9%. Of the ten P5 Pitt opponents, the Virginia returning production is the fourth lowest. Only Louisville (55.5%), GT (43.2%) and WVCC (34.7%) are lower.

To help put all of the defensive data into perspective, here are the Virginia 2021 NCAA defensive stats.

I give Virginia’s 2021 defense a “D”.

Virginia will have a solid passing attack. Will the Oline be serviceable enough to protect Armstrong and improve the rushing offense? Will the defense make a leap forward? They may but I have this game as a Pitt win.

Next up on Pitt’s ACC schedule are the Syracuse Orange.

Dino Babers leads the Orange for his seventh consecutive year. In the previous six years, he is 29 – 43 (15-35 conference, 13-8 OOC, 1-0 bowls). He had one shining moment, the truly unexpected 2018 10-3 season.

Syracuse’s 2021 results and the 2022 schedule.

After a bye, Cuse plays NC State, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Pitt. Will this stretch of games be the last nail in Babers career at Syracuse?

Here are the Rivals 5.6 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

I think we are all aware of the recruiting difficulties Syracuse faces. I expected a recruiting bump after the 2018 season. I was naïve in believing the bump occurred immediately. It does not. The bump occurs in the second recruiting class. In Syracuse’s case, it should have occurred for the 2020 class. Pitt’s bump should occur with the 2024 class. But that is if the team does not revert to past means. Syracuse did by following up their breakout year with a 5-7 season. If Pitt wins seven or less in 2022, they will not have that bump.

Eight TP entries. Three on defense. All DB’s. Five offense players. One RB. Two WR’s and Two QB’s. Except for the Rutgers’s CB transfer, all TP entries have two or more years of eligibility.

Syracuse has lost 17 players to the TP. That includes one player who entered the TP on 6/16/2022. Last day for 2022 eligibility was 5/1.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the 2021 All ACC teams. I have added a new stat –  Athlon’s 2022 preseason All ACC Conference’s (four teams). I do not have Phil Steele’s All ACC selections. But a Cuse site named the nine players selected.

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart.

What can I say about the Orange QB play? The passing game needs improvement. If you cannot get a QB by recruiting, you turn to the TP. Both TP QB’s have eligibility through the 2025 season. One of them will be the backup this year.

I am sad that I will no longer be able to refer to Tommy DeVito as being Danny DeVito’s grandson. He was a gamer. Took a beating but always came back for more.

The Orange running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production summary for Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Louisville, UNC, and Syracuse.

Cuse has claimed the highest returning production of any reviewed ACC Pitt opponents.

The running game was Syracuse’s offense. The rushing attack was led by a nationally unappreciated Sean Tucker and QB Garrett Schrader.

Syracuse did have a passing game but I believe it was an afterthought.

No matter what, they are returning their top producers.

What does the Oline stats tell us? I added Pitt allowed sacks and tackles for loss.

In the UNC review, I described the Tar Heel Oline as being “just horrendous” in allowing 10.5% of all offensive plays resulting in lost yardage. The Orange Oline is slightly less horrendous with only 9.6% of plays result in loss yardage.

The good news is that the Cuse only lost one starter to eligibility. They also have six players returning with at least five starts. They will have experience. Injuries during the season may be a problem as actual game experience beyond the starters is limited.

On to the defensive review.

Syracuse had 40 players make a defensive stat. But ten of them were offense players. One was special teams player. That leaves 29 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and eleven players who did not make at least six or more tackles.

The below chart includes 23 players- ten DB’s, nine DL’s and four LB’s making up (and I mean made up) a “10 tackles two deep.” I did lower my goal of ten tackles to six to make a “two deep.”

Defense is the heart and soul of the Syracuse team.

The total overall returning production is normal but the DL is decimated. Five of the top six tacklers are gone. Depth is such a problem that Jeff Hough (2021 RB recruit from Beaver Falls) is supposedly making the switch to the defensive line.

Get to Know Your Syracuse Orange Man: #29, DL Josh Hough – Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician (nunesmagician.com)

Plenty of solid players returning on the other units. Williams and Chestnut have pro potential as does Jones, Thompson, and Wax in the LB unit.

Babers is an offensive minded coach but Syracuse struggles in his specialty. But he is able to recruit lower ranked defensive players and coach them up. Kudos to him and his defensive staff.

To help put all of the defensive data into perspective, here are the Syracuse 2021 NCAA defensive stats.

Syracuse did not have a bad defense. I gave them a C+ but they were only one point away from a B –. I really need to spend some time refining my down and dirty formula.

At the beginning of this article, I questioned if the rough stretch of late season games would seal Babers fate. Last season, he had three cracks at winning one game to be bowl eligible. Even with a bye preceding that final stretch, Cuse lost all three. Babers may have another year if his team is bowl eligible. Pitt will not be one of those teams leading to bowl eligibility.

I am now at 8-1 in predicting games based on these reviews. The Vegas line is 8.5 wins. Besides celebrating my birthday, I will be laying some money on the over when I am at my favorite local casino for 3 days/nights starting 7/31.

Next up on Pitt’s ACC schedule are the North Carolina (UNC) Tar Heels.

Like the head coach of last week’s review, Mack Brown enters his fourth season at the helm of the Tar Heels. In his second stint at UNC, he is 21 – 17 (14-12 conference, 6-3 OOC, and 1-2 in bowls). His best season was in 2020 where they went 8-4.

What is unusual about North Carolina is that they have two coaches on staff who won national championships. Mack Brown won his in 2005. Gene Chizik, hired this year as the assistant head coach of defense (defensive coordinator), won his in 2010 at Auburn.

UNC’s 2021 results and the 2022 schedule.

North Carolina opens the season in Week “zero” against the Florida State Rattlers. By that schedule arrangement, UNC opens up a second Bye week. That second Bye is preceding the home game against Notre Dame.

Speaking of Notre Dame, they are scheduled to play only four ACC games in 2022. They will play six in 2023. In the Covid year of 2020, ND was originally scheduled to play six ACC teams. The 2024 ND schedule only includes four ACC teams.

Besides UNC, ND will play Syracuse, Clemson, and Boston College. Clemson will also have a bye week. Is it a coincidence or on purpose that the two strongest teams have a bye before ND?

Pitt is not the only team playing a Group of 5 (G5) away game. UNC is playing Appalachian State in Boone, NC. Charming small town in the mountains. Also known as the closest ski resort area near Charlotte.

Here are the Rivals 5.7 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

Brown is known as a recruiter. UNC’s Rivals ranking in his first three true classes #12, #15, #11.

Another two TP entries on Phil Steele’s preseason ACC list. Not surprised with Noah Taylor as he was a second team 2021 All ACC Selection. Gaynor played and started in three games last year. I am assuming he was injured.

UNC has lost 14 players to the TP this cycle. Speaking of the TP, I assumed that the portal entries would slow to a trickle. It has not. To me, it seems like the period between February and the onslaught of spring practices.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the 2021 All ACC teams. I have added a new stat –  Athlon’s 2022 preseason All ACC Conference’s four teams. I do not have Phil Steele’s ALL ACC selections. But a UNC site named the nine players selected.

I doubled checked and both Athlon and Phil Steele do not think as highly of LB Noah Taylor as the voters in the 2021 All ACC selections.

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart.

The Tar Heels QB position has not been settled. Criswell is a Rivals 5.8, 4-star in the class of 2020. Maye is a 5.9, 4-star in 2021. We will find out who starts around the same time we find out if it is Patti or Slovis.

UNC does have a third QB. A 2022 recruit who was not a Rivals rated 5.7 or above.

UNC running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production summary for Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and UNC.

The Tar Heels lost a lot of production especially in the run game. They are high on their three returning RB’s especially British Brooks (9.5 yards/attempt).

I expect whoever becomes the starting QB, he will be a running QB. One of the surprises of the 2021 season was Sam Howell’s rushing yardage. In 2020, he ran for 146 net yards. He had 828 in 2021.

The returning WR’s are solid. Josh Downs is in the running for best WR in the ACC.

What does the Oline stats tell us? I added Pitt allowed sacks and tackles for loss.

Last year, UNC was just horrendous in protecting the QB and opening holes for the RB’s. And they lost three starters. No wonder Howell ran so much. Over ten percent of UNC’s total offensive plays resulted in negative yardage.

They do have two returning starters and four with starting experience, I did not make a note but I believe Tunall ( one start, one game played) was injured and missed most of the season. He is back for this year.

We discussed Louisville QB Malik Cunningham last week. As you are aware, I have been referring to QB rushing yards as “Net rushing yards.” Really, all rushing yards are net of lost yardage. The difference is that there are easily found stats for sacks on a QB while TFL’s on an individual running back are hard to find.

If we compare gross yardage (net yards plus sack yards) and “true” rush carriers (carriers minus sacked), Cunningham only gained 30 more yards than Howell on 18 more carriers. FYI, Pitt held Howell to a net 28 yards on 17 carries. (Gross 59 yards, 5 sacks for minus 31 yards)

That ends my fun with stats lesson for the day. Besides my wordcount needed beefing up.

On to the defensive review.

North Carolina had 40 players make a defensive stat. But five of them were offense players. Three were special teams players. That leaves 32 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and eleven players who did not make at least 10 or more tackles.

The below chart includes 21 players- eight DB’s, five DL’s and eight LB’s making up (and I mean made up) a “10 tackles two deep.” I did not have to lower my goal of ten tackles to make a near “two deep.”

Tomari Fox (DL) is highlighted in bright green. He is/was not injured and out for the season. He has a different problem. He is currently under a NCAA one-year suspension for using a banned substance. I am not sure if he has one more appeal before ii is officially official. His 2021 stats are not included in returning production.

NCAA denies Tar Heel DE Tomari Fox’s appeal of season-long suspension for banned substance use (espn.com)

Returning production looks above ACC normal with only the LB position below average. No wonder UNC snapped up LB Noah Taylor from the TP.

To help put all of the defensive data into perspective, here are the UNC 2021 NCAA defensive stats.

Overall, in my down and dirty grading, UNC’s 2021 defense had a solid D grade. No wonder UNC hired Gene Chizik. Chizik made his bones as a defensive coordinator.

Brown’s recruiting prowess needs to start paying off. The defense needs to make a giant leap forward. I can see seven regular season wins and Pitt is not one of them.