I have finished the ACC non-Pitt opponents. That means the first Pitt opponent of the 2022 season – West Virginia.

Neal Brown, the former head coach of Troy University, enters his fourth season as HC of the Mountaineers. During his three seasons, he is 17- 18 (11-15 Conference, 5-2 OOC and 1-1 Bowls).

That leads us to last year results and the upcoming 2022 schedule (or at least the only games that matter.)

My Oh My, a blowout win over an FCS team.

In OOC scheduling, WVU has been scheduling two P5 teams and an FCS team for the last five or six years (excluding the Covid 2020 season). P5 teams included Home/Away games with NC State, Maryland, Tennessee, Virginia Tech and now Pitt. The 2023/24 seasons will have Pitt and Psu games. But the two P5 ends in 2025 with only Pitt on the schedule and Alabama lined up for 26/27.

Here are the Rivals 5.6 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

Before JT Daniels transferred in, the WVU fan base thought 5.8, 4-star QB Nicco Marchiol would have a shot/be the starting QB.

Lee Kpogba, the 5.8, 4-star LB has an interesting story. He was a 5.8, 4-star in Syracuse’s 2020 class. Played one season with one tackle and transferred to a JUCO. He is now seen as key figure in rebuilding the LB group.

Currently three offensive, seven defensive and one kicker from the portal. Obviously QB JT Daniels is the star pickup. The transfer kicker probably will not be the starting field goal kicker. The current one, Casey Legg has a leg up on him.

WVU has lost 20 players to the TP

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the All Big 10 teams.

Lot’s of color like Wake Forest’s chart. The difference is that Wake was blue (eligibility). WVU is red (TP).

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart.

Doege to the TP, opening the door for a new QB. Greene had more rushing attempts and yardage then passing. Crowder and Marchiol are untested. Enter JT Daniels. Here are his career passing stats along with Slovis and Patti’s.

If I were really good, I would add rushing yards. That would help in determining the best QB of the three. In fact, if I were really good at this, I would try to add stats on some of the TP additions.

WVU running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production summary for Pitt and West Virginia.

Lots of production lost mainly due to the TP. WVU did pickup a Clemson running back with experience. The TE pickup is now on his third team.

QB Greene was WVU third leading rusher with a net 297 yards on 48 carriers.

Both Pitt and WVU shed a lot of production.

Can the Oline stats help the lost production based on returning starters and experience. I added Pitt allowed sacks and tackles for loss.

The Mountaineers, like Pitt, return all their starters.

While WVU allowed less tackles for loss, as a percentage of total plays Pitt’s Oline is more solid.

That wraps up the West Virginia offense. On to the defensive review.

WVU had 41 players make a defensive stat. But five of them were offense players. One was a special teams players. That leaves 36 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and fifteen players who did not make at least double digit tackles.

The below chart includes nine DB’s, five DL’s and six LB’s making up (and I mean made up) “ten tackles two deep.”

The WVU defense has been decimated by eligibility and the TP. The defensive backs are down to three players left from the shown chart. Of the five DB’s not on the chart, one is also in the TP. So not much help there.

WVU did get help from the TP – three incoming DB’s. They also have a 5.8. 4-star JUCO transfer recruit Hershey McLaurin.

The LB position is also an area of concern. While not as devastated as Pitt’s, it is a position of concern. Besides Kpogba (mentioned above) they did pick up a LB TP entry from Miam and have two 5.7, 3-stars recruits in the incoming class.

The DL appears to be solid though even with the loss of their leading tackler.

I have no idea where WVU stands on scholarships. I did find a site that had a scholarship tracker early in my research, but it has not been updated since mid- February. Even if scholarships are available, immediate TP impact players are few and far between. If this were just any P5 OOC game, I would expect Pitt to win. But it is a huge rivalry game for the players and fans especially for the younger fans amongst us. At this time, Pitt wins.

2021 Production Loss – Wake Forest

I am doing the ACC non-Pitt opponents in alphabetical order. That means Wake Forest. The next article starts the Pitt 2022 opponents.

Dave Clawson took over the head coaching duties prior to the 2014 season. His record over time is 51 – 48 (26 – 37 Conference, 21 – 8 OOC, 0 – 1 conference championships, and 4 – 2 Bowls.

I do give the Wake admin credit for sticking with him. It paid off with a division title and a 11 win season. Only the second in Wake Forest history (2006).

Wake is one of three teams most likely to take the Atlantic. Will they repeat?

All that leads us to last year results and the upcoming 2022 schedule.

Another team that knows how to schedule OOC games. Besides the NCAA rule change that allows a conference to decide who plays in the conference championship, the 2019 and 2021 out of conference matchups between Wake and UNC were made to shorten the 6/7 year wait between conference games.

Does Wake dropping 70 on Army count as running up the points per game average? Or does beating an FCS team only count? And with Army scoring 56, should we adjust Wake’s points allowed per game down? I want to know the rules.

Here are the Rivals 5.6 and above 2022 commits. Also included is the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

As you know, I like to use color coding to highlight certain items – light blue for eligibility, reddish pink for TP entries and a bright green for medical, grades or disciplinary reasons. Wake has a commit who would be a bright green for still being a verbal if I showed Rivals 5.2 2-stars.

A Richmond Spider TP signee. Does our resident authority on Spider basketball follow or know about the Spider football team?

Wake has lost 10 scholarship players to the TP this year – Three from the offense, seven from the defense.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the All ACC teams.

That is a lot of color. Can we be having a taste of production loss.

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart.

Another team with limited backup QB snaps. I believe Kelly is a walk on. Wake did sign a QB in the 2022 class – Brett Griffis. Same last name as the Griffis in above chart. Brother? Cousin? Coincidence?

NC State running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production for the first four teams reviewed.

Just based on returning production of the five Atlantic teams, Wake looks as a potential third place team. But Boston College is nipping at their heels.

Can the Oline stats shake the Eagles and move Wake back into contention?

Lost just one starter – Zack Tom. First team All ACC and a fourth round pick in the NFL draft. But they may have replacements just based on games played.

This is where I really need snap counts to judge potential starters. It is one thing to say a player had action in 13 game. But were they all on special teams?

As an aside, the one player who had one start is identified as a freshman. I get my data from the NCAA Wake Forest roster. The problem is that this particular player could be a TRUE freshman, a redshirt freshman or a Covid year freshman. (Petitbon was a 2020 recruit). Pickett was identified as a senior.

Actually, Wake had a solid Oline allowing 25 sacks (2.3%) and 33 TFL’s (3.0%) on 1,084 offensive plays.

Another aside. Pitt had 5 sacks in the championship game. That is 20% of the total times Hartman was sacked. Clemson had 7 (28%). NC State had 3 (12%).

That wraps up the NC State Offense. On to the defensive review.

Wake had 50 players make a defensive stat. But eleven of them were offense players. One was a special teams players. That leaves 38 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and twelve players who did not make at least double digit tackles. (By now you have learned I use a lot of copy and paste and change a few stats. That is what happens when you have boilerplate.)

I struggled with Wake’s defense (and the other five team reviewed. What to say? What is important? It has been trial and error. Started with anyone who had a defensive stat. Winnowed out the offensive /special team players. Color coded the eligibility and TP players. Sorted by defensive group (DB, DL, and LB). Only then did I summarize totals and defensive groups.

I then decided. I had to cull the number in the chart. I decided ten total tackles was the number to use. Why, you ask? That goes back to the “two-deep” roster – twenty two. (I have lowered below ten tackles to reach at least twenty players.)

I then added a total line just for those players on the chart. I have now added a line breaking down the players listed between returning and those who have left.

Based on total tackles, Wake has the lowest returning percentage of those teams reviewed. But they have 18 players returning with considerable experience.

As I said earlier, Wake looks like the third-place team in the Atlantic. That wraps it up. Next, West Virginia.

I am doing the ACC non-Pitt opponents in alphabetical order. That means NC State.

Dave Doeren enters his tenth year as HC of the NC State Wolfpack. Overall. He is 64 – 49 (34-40 Conf, 27-6 Ooc, and a 3-3 Bowl record). He has hit his stride in the last 5 years 39 – 23 (25-17 C, 13-4 O, 1-2 B). He has had two losing seasons and the 2021 bowl game was cancelled.

All that leads us to last year results and the upcoming 2022 schedule.

NC State has mastered the art of out of conference scheduling.

Here are the Rivals 5.7 and above 2022 commits. Also included is the current Transfer Portal (TP) addition.

As you know, I like to use color coding to highlight certain items – light blue for eligibility, reddish pink for TP entries and a bright green for medical, grades or disciplinary reasons. NC State has a commit who would be a bright green for still being a verbal.

NC State has lost 8 scholarship players to the TP this year – Five from the offense, two from the defense and  a kicker.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the All ACC teams.

The offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart.

Behind Leary and Finley, the only scholarship QB on roster is 2022 signee M.J. Morris a Rivals 5.8  4 Star. To shore up their QB depth, the Wolfpack picked up past FCS Charleston Southern long time starter Jack Chambers as a graduate walk-on. Chambers is not currently listed on the 24/7 transfer port NC State page.

As I was drafting this article, it dawned on me that there could be a huge shakeup in Atlantic division starting QB’s in 2023. Cunningham (Louisville class of 2017) and 2018 class Leary, Jurkovec (BC) and Hartman (Wake).

NC State running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production for the first four teams reviewed.

We got a new leader in lowest returning production. Actually, I was surprised when I realized that NC State’s stat. I had to recheck my figures to see if I made a math/link error. I did not.

In my opinion, I do not think NC State expected Zonovan Knight to go pro.

NC State’s OLine stats:

Sacks as a percentage of total plays were 3.1%. That could change the Pass/Run ratio from 54%/46%  to 57% to 43%.

While NC State lost one starter (the 6’th overall NFL draft pick), they are still very solid. At one point, Zavala, a starter (injured in the 5’th game last season) was denied a medical extra year. But in another appeal won his case. In 2017, Zavala started as a true freshmen at Fairmont State (WV). He  played 3 games before being injured and sitting out the balance of the year. He transferred to NC State in 2021.

The Wolfpack returns 5 players with solid starting credentials. With that inexperienced returning RB roster, they will need that OLine to do their job. Only around 7% of plays resulted in negative plays.

That wraps up the NC State Offense. On to the defensive review.

NC State had a whopping 51 players make a defensive stat. But fourteen of them were offense players. An additional two were special teams players. That leaves 35 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and thirteen players who did not make at least double digit tackles. I did leave a player who only made 5 tackles. He is high-lighted in yellow and more on him later.

I did add a total line for the 22 players on the chart. You can compare those numbers to the summary totals for all defensive stats.

NC State is returning basically all of their defense. The only slight weakness is in their LB group. And that is where the player high-lighted in yellow comes in to play.

Payton Wilson was injured in the first game (South Florida(USF)) of the 2021 season. In 2020, he was a first team All ACC selection. Here is his stats from 2020.

That is a significant gain offsetting the one LB the Wolfpack lost.

I am impressed with NC State. They have a solid football team returning except for the running back position. Somehow, NC State needs to find a running game that improves on their 2021 99’th rated rushing offense. If that happens, the October 1’st game against Clemson may decide the Atlantic division championship. That wraps it up. Next is Wake Forest, the team who won the Atlantic last year and has a shot at winning the division again.