in 2022 UpNext, Pitt Football 742 Words

2022 Season Up Next: Pitt at Miami

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, I will be doing a condensed version of the Up Next articles. I will only be showing Miami stats and data. Yes, there will be some Pitt – Miami comparisons but no Pitt names and stats.

Last week, on Senior’s Day, Pitt beat the Duke Blue Devils 28 – 26. Pitt is now 7 – 4 (4-3 Conf, 3-1 OOC) and is tied with Duke for second place in the Coastal.

Miami played at Clemson and were crushed 40 – 10. The Canes had a total of 98 yards of offense. Speaking of offense, the Canes fans are offended by OC Josh Gattis.

Miami is now 5 – 6 (3-4 Conf, 2-2 OOC) and occupies fifth place in the Coastal. Saturday is Miami’s Senior Day. Miami is hoping for a win to both celebrate the Senior’s and become bowl eligible.

Below is the schedule for both teams. I have added offensive/defense scoring stats for the five common Coastal Division opponents.

Here are the NCAA offensive stats comparison after week 12 action:

The offense revolves around QB play. I am showing the Miami QB stats I update weekly. I use ESPN game stats for my individual team stats but always verify with NCAA stats.

The question is who will start at QB – Van Dyke, Garcia, or Brown?

Van Dyke was injured against Duke, missed the Virginia game, started against FSU, but was reinjured and missed the last two games. It has been a revolving door at QB since the Duke game. As you will see, Jacurri Brown is the more mobile QB.

Miami RB’s and WR’s.

Miami’s leading rusher is Henry Parrish Jr. a 2020 Pitt decommitment. Their third leading rusher is QB Jacurri Brown. Either Brown feels pressure and runs or that the OC rather not have him pass.

The leading receiver is TE Will Mallory who leads in catches (33) and second in yards per catch (13.2). The TE’s account for 22% of the catches and 25% of total yards.

In reading about Miami, commentors, besides complaining about their OC, talked about Miami injuries. I decided to gather all the NCAA stats on game started and played. That data turned out to be incomplete with not one playing or starting eleven games. I gave up on that attempt to quantify the injuries.

On to the Miami offensive line. Chart includes players with (incomplete) game experience, TFL’s and sacks allowed statistics and a breakdown of pass/run/sacks ratios, average offense plays per games, True TFL’s Allowed as a percentage of Adjusted run plays and average offensive plays per game for both teams.

I had already finished this chart before I realized the data, I used was incomplete. There should be 55 starts not 49. While incomplete, it does show either the impact of injuries or finding adequate replacement for linemen not performing to expectations.

The data does indicate that Pitt is better in protecting the QB from sacks. Miami is better at opening holes for the RB’s.

That ends the Offensive review. On to the defense. I am starting with the NCAA defensive stats comparison.

No doubt in my mind concerning who has the better defense except for turnovers gained.

Let us take a look at the individual defense stats for Miami. I am only showing those defensive players with five or more total tackles and my attempt at duplicating a S&P+ statistic – Havoc Defense.

Miami has 35 players making a defensive stat but only 24 made my 5 plus tackles two-deep. The missing eleven names had a total of 24 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 interception and the missing interception TD. Pitt will not have to worry about the person with the missing interception and TD. He has already entered his name in the transfer portal.

The leader (Akheem Mesidor) in tackles and sacks on the defensive line is a West Virginia transfer.

I just now noticed that none of the DB’s has a sack. The LB’s collectively only have 5.5 sacks. The balance all comes from the defensive line.

Miscellaneous NCAA stats:

A few takeaways:

Pitt certainly needs to improve its special team performance.

Pitt penalties seem to have plateaued but not in a good place.

It would be nice if Pitt were plus three in turnovers against Miami.

Finally, Pitt cannot allow Miami to dominate Time of Possession. Duke won the TOP 33:50 to Pitt’s 26:10. That control caused Pitt to fall out of the top 10 to number 13.

Happy Thanksgiving to all. Enjoy your long weekend with family and friends.

70 thoughts on “2022 Season Up Next: Pitt at Miami”

  2. Cignetti’s offense is atrocious.

    Pitt D scores, Pitt wins.
    Pitt D doesn’t score, Pitt loses.
    Slovis gets hurt, Pitt loses no matter what the D does.

    Like

  3. Duke scored 45 points on Miami. a lot depends on how healthy Izzy is, and of course Kancy and Haba. If Slovis can avoid interceptions etc.

    Miami should be physically spent after Clemson.

    Do they really want to go to a bowl after this season, its not much of a reward if they have to go North to the Pinstripe.

    All that being said Pitt usually finds a way to disappoint at the end of the year.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Also it will be interesting to see how many Pitt Fans attend, loads have relocated to Florida.
    Tickets will be easily available and I don’t expect a huge turnout of Miami Fans and students because of the Holiday. We may hear some Let’s go Pitt on the telecast. Wouldn’t that be great.

    Liked by 3 people

  5. HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

    Pitt and Miami both share one thing in common…inferior coaching.
    Miami has had great success in recruiting…beautiful campus, gorgeous women, good academics for those few who are interested and of course a past history of winning…..but,
    the U has grossly underperformed the Rivals Star ratings for incoming classes.

    Class of 2020 Miami 0 5***** 13 4****
    Class of 2021 Miami 1 5***** 11 4 ***
    ———————
    1 5***** 24 4****

    24 4**** ///don’t even think about Pitt. So, with talent growing on trees in the sunny South
    the Canes have harvested what should be a winning, bone crushing team, but alas much like our lowly Panthers they find ways to lose. COACHING COACHING COACHING need I say more?

    Cristobal returned to Hurricane land to somehow lose control of the team…?????

    Pitt usually finds ways to screw up in situations where we end up shaking our collective POV heads saying, WTF just happened? As messed up as this season has been I for reasons unknown (isnore is losing it) think that we will win this ERROR FILLED FEST and up playing a school like Perdue in a meaningless bowl.

    Pitt 31 Canes 17

    Liked by 1 person

    1. wait, what? I could swear I recall Cristobal is one of the great ones

      thought I read it here , yes I’m certain of that

      maybe I’m disrespecting someone here, not sure

      maybe he just needs booster or admin support and isn’t getting that?

      I agree if Slow is his recent usual, we lose

      I have NO IDEA why Yarnell would remain at Pitt, none, but if he’s actually worse than Slow, I don’t care if he leaves, anyone trust the Duzz on this?

      Like

    2. Let’s review last year….. the week before the Miami game, Pitt players (as if their on field discipline lack wasn’t enough) got into a nasty Twitter War with Miami players. Then a scuffle pregame and six penaltys that Miami baited Pitt into. Loss ensued. Will Pitt have the discipline to win this game.
      Based on last week and the year, I don’t think so.

      Like

  10. Happy Thanksgiving to all of the TURKEYS who make up the POV! You know who you are! (But especially Iek)!

    Pitt related, this year I am thankful for Kenny Pickett. After watching the debacle of the 2022 season, it has become quite apparent that our ACC Championship last year was primarily a result of his skill and moxie. It’s also apparent that an another ACC Championship isn’t happening any time soon.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. OT — Wanted to bring this comment up from the last article:

    If anyone is interested, Panther Deslin Alexandre is raising money to help kids — in his hometown in Haiti — with food and education. It’s called the “5th Down Campaign.” A good day to make a contribution.

    The goal is to raise $50,000 and with a recent donation from PGT Trucking, Deslin is now within $10,000 of his goal…. Congrats to Deslin.

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 2 people

  13. Thanks for the article, Richard.

    Looked like Clemson had good success running the ball when their QB faked a handoff and ran the ball. Unfortunately, Miami won’t have to worry about that this week.

    Will Cig come up with something to add some deception? Probably not… ☹️

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Yeah, Cig has this flea flicker play that will knock your socks off. Slovis hands the ball to #22 Davis (flea) who pitches the ball to WR Wayne, who then fires a bullet down the sideline to a sprinting Slovis for a 9 yard gain.

      Wait, something seems wrong with that play, but I just can’t put my finger on it.

      Thoughts?

      Liked by 3 people

    2. I’m envisioning our QB making a diving TD catch on the Pitt Special! 😊

      BTW, at a Pitt event I thanked Whip for running the Pitt Special, told him that’s a memory I will keep. He said: “Yeah, I should have run it the game before.” (PSU)

      Go Pitt.

      Liked by 1 person

    3. John, might be something along the lines of a 3 Stooges/ Marx Brothers “hidden ball” play where someone has the ball under his jersey and scores a touchdown.

      Kidding aside I think if mistakes are minimized we have a shot.
      Love you back Uncle Iek.

      Liked by 2 people

    1. I’ll be on the sidelines wearing neutral colors…..i think the goalposts will be coming down afterwards. The full osu offense shows up and scores, a lot. Not sure of the spread, but i think 17 sounds about right to me if the weather cooperates. If raining, I will not be on sidelines. If cold and rainy, I won’t go at all.

      Like

  16. Pulled this gem from a Pantherlair.com Duzz interview for the Miami game:

    Narduzzi said “We have a punt blocked (Duke game), which again, is disappointing. We’ve talked to our punt team and all that.

    But, again, seven points off that. They get seven points off another punt issue. So I told the offense, we’re going to go for it on fourth down a lot, so that’s what we should be ready for.

    PL question: Fourth and 15? Fourth and 1? Any fourth down?
    NARDUZZI: Might as well, right? Let’s go for it on fourth down. We have it right there, just, right there at least have a chance to get a first down.

    I think we had a fourth and 18 or third and 18 the other day. We completed it and did a nice job. So just throw it or run it.“

    Comment by poster: I don’t remember a 4th and 18 in the Duke game and I was on the edge of my seat, intently watching every play. I checked the game stats and Pitt was 0-1 on 4th downs. Had to be 3rd and 18, probably after a sack or penalty or both.

    Like

  17. Busy at work the next two days so I’ll post my prediction now:

    Pitt loses a close one 24-19. TVD lights up our D with three breakaway plays and leads the canes to a late game winning FG.

    Slovis leads Pitt to four FG’s and the D manages a TD itself to keep the game close.

    Duzz and Slovis embrace after the game, the King pats Kedon on the backside and says, “we’ll get ‘‘em next year.”

    Like

    1. from the article – That year away did nothing to diminish Cignetti’s love for football.
      “It’s a chess match,” he said. “As coaches, we love game-planning, the X’s and O’s of the game.”

      .
      unfortunately Cig’s playing bingo and the dude pulling and calling the ping pong balls doesn’t know all the alphabet after letter C judging the games we’ve seen

      hoping Slow and WR’s studying ALL the alphabet today!
      don’t expect Duzz to tutor

      must be sad for Patti or Yarnell

      Liked by 1 person

  24. Picked this up from PSN yesterday:

    Pitt football has extended an offer to another player that recently entered the transfer portal. Shorter University tight end Kyle Morlock announced that he’s received an offer from Pitt. Morlock (6’7″, 245-pounds) entered the portal on Tuesday.

    The other offer was to Colgate DT Coleman Coco (Mt Lebanon).

    Anyone ever hear of Shorter University? Serious question…

    Like

  25. Oh boy, Shorter University. I looked it up a very small school (less than 1200 students in Rome Georgia) Shorter obviously plays against other small colleges where the level of competition is questionable, to say the least. When we are extending offers to Shorter University players it tells me that we are desperate to acquire warm bodies to fill the locker room. Yes, there have been a number of players who have played in out of the way places that have gone on to successful football careers…..they are generally the exception instead of the rule….2023 is a complete train wreck waiting to happen.

    Like

  27. Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving and thanks again Richard for the great pre-game key points.
    Interesting, last year I was a bit surprised that Miami fired Manny Diaz and now with Cristobal the team has clearly regressed. I spoke with a PSU fan this week who said that the Happy Valley faithful are worried about whether they will be able to keep Diaz as D coordinator with the upcoming coaching carousel at the end of the season.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. It will come down to if Diaz wants to be a head coach again. If he does, he is gone. There are too many big-time schools looking for a new head coach. Diaz can recruit in Florida and was more than adequate at Miami. Miami’s alumni have delusional expectations and that is why they continue to have a coaching carousel there.

      Like

  28. Do you think Roethlisberger wouldn’t have entered the portal in this era? The NFL used to find plenty of guys in the small schools, now with the portal, P-5 schools can pick them off.
    Would Joe Greene finished at N Texas State in this era.

    Back in the day many guys went to the smaller schools because they couldn’t meet the academic standards of the larger schools. That no longer seems to be an issue. When was the last time you heard of someone being declared academically ineligible?

    Kids must be so much smarter these days, lol.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Shorter is a MINI SCHOOL! The NFL is loaded with players from programs that barely have enough money for uniforms and padding (Can I sell you the Brooklyn Bridge)?) North Texas State and almost all of the directional schools have much better programs and play stiffer competition than the Shorter Hawks. Maybe, we can find future talent at W&J, Thiel, St. Vincent and Waynesburg>>>>all schools that are larger than Shorter (Hey, the school is appropriately named). Sorry, how do you attempt to evaluate a player who is competing at the lowest level of college football?

      Like

      1. I tend to trust our coaches when it comes to evaluating talent. The problem has been getting elite talent to come to Pitt. Also now it seems getting the good ones to stay.
        Kids mature at different rates some through hard work some through genetics.
        It certainly isn’t a perfect science and when you are not an elite school very difficult and you will have some misses.
        Slovis was very highly sought after, Mumpfield was great at a lesser school but doesn’t have the physical makeup to break or allude tackles yet. But Pitt isn’t going to get the five star guys so they have to work harder to get guys that will develop and then hope they stay.

        Like

  29. Penn state 🚿 will always be no better than the third best team in the big ten. They always or almost always get beat by the suckeyes 👀 and wolverines.

    They have no rivals despite what those delusional nitters 🐄 think.

    Like

    1. I don’t agree, Franklin is the worst game day coach ever. If they could have held on to O’Brien they would have been competitive with the Big 2. Franklin is a fantastic recruiter,
      easily has the players to compete. They need a new coach much more than Pitt, but apparently their Board has lost it’s will to win, unlike Pitt’s that never had one to begin with.

      The difference being that PSU has the money, the facilities and the fans that Pitt does not.

      Like

      2. Pitt can find the money if they allow booster clubs and do a far better job at fundraising. Pitt has the facilities. Pitt fans want a winner. They aren’t stupid brainless zombies like Nitter fans.

        Like

  30. My county’s home University (Limestone) played them a few years ago. A true Division II school (not the oldies on here that call FCS schools D-II) like Edinboro, Cal, IUP.

    The reason for offers for TP entries to FCS/DII schools is that those schools have ended their regular season and the TP is open to them. FBS teams are still playing.

    Like

  31. As I was flipping through the channels last night, I noticed a Pitt soph. was one of the contestants. He won handily. Made you proud to be a Pitt Man? ah ha

    Liked by 1 person

  32. Mighty William & Mary enters The Pete tonight to challenge the Capel Cats at 7PM.
    W&M has outstanding academics, however, having a very tough time on the hardwood. Noah Collier former Pitt bench warmer is now playing for The Tribe.

    Like

  33. —Speaking of the lower level schools, I saw the other day where a WR from Duquesne entered the portal. He picked up a number of offers including one from VT and one from another ACC school not named Pitt, might have been UVA, can’t remember now…

    —And on an unpleasant note – PSU can now brag about having an alum as the best defensive player in the NFL. Actually there are several PSU players doing well in the NFL…. Ugh.

    Go Pitt.

    Like

    1. Really….better than Donald (or TJ Watt for that matter)? Best year does not = best player.

      Meanwhile Revis is in line for a first ballot lock into the HOF.

      Liked by 1 person

  34. Pitt is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Might as well go division two with this recruiting effort. If narduzzi can’t sell a legit upper three star recruit with P5 offers or a transfer from a real D One school on Pitt, he needs to go back to Youngstown and open a hoagie shop specializing in meatballs.

    Like

  35. I’m going to be pretty busy tomorrow so I want to get this out:
    1) If VanDyke plays I really like the U. The way you beat the Duzz d is what they did last year. Quick throws parallel to los to wideouts. We play 10 yards off so quick, accurate throw gets 7-8 easy yards. Then after it works 5-6 times the db comes up and they run the wr’s deep and cross te over middle. Then they can run rkb on wide open wheel when wr’s clear area and we pinch on te. Watch last years game. Easy peasy.
    2) All that is predicated on VD playing. If it’s either of the others qb’s I really like our chances.
    3) As always when playing the U we need to jump on them early. I question weather this o can do that. This o keeps other teams in the game, rarely getting out to a big lead.
    4) So, that leaves the score 29-17 U if VD plays. 26-16 us if it’s anyone else.

    Liked by 1 person

  36. JoeK, seems like your offensive game plan of Maimi is similar of that used by UNC against PITT, it worked well too.

    Like

  38. For those of your that bet, keep in mind Miami has many 4 and 5 Star players on both lines. They usually bully Pitt’s 3 stars for the win!

    Like

  39. Pitt Woman’s BB getting schooled by Towson 29-24 at the half. Towson VB starting front four (that beat Pitt) plays basketball and is dominating Pitt underneath. John was right. Without a center this team will struggle.

    Like

  42. Never mind again. Pitt ladies outscore Towson 30-15 in fourth Q.
    and win 72-62. AP and ESPN reported a Towson win. So sorry.

    Like

  46. The Pitt women basketballers indeed won 72-62. Somewhere I saw the score inadvertently reversed, which was what Dan saw.

    Here is Pitt’s scoring by quarter:
    11/13/18/30.
    Pretty amazing for Pitt to score 30 in a quarter – they often struggle to get into double figures. But they have been shooting better – they shot 43% from 3 and 43% overall. Amazing for them. Maybe Dan has been giving Coach White some shooting tips.

    Aislin Malcolm is a freshman local recruit. She was 3 for 3 from 3. Not bad, Aislin.

    Marley Washenitz is also a true freshman – and she’s not very tall. But she comes off the bench and scores 11 points and grabs 5 rebounds. (BTW, overall, Pitt was out-rebounded by 8, not a good sign…).

    Tough game today against DePaul, who just beat Maryland in this tourney. Pitt gets Maryland tomorrow. Hoping we can win one of these two…

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

Comments are closed.