Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, I will be doing a condensed version of the Up Next articles. I will only be showing Miami stats and data. Yes, there will be some Pitt – Miami comparisons but no Pitt names and stats.
Last week, on Senior’s Day, Pitt beat the Duke Blue Devils 28 – 26. Pitt is now 7 – 4 (4-3 Conf, 3-1 OOC) and is tied with Duke for second place in the Coastal.
Miami played at Clemson and were crushed 40 – 10. The Canes had a total of 98 yards of offense. Speaking of offense, the Canes fans are offended by OC Josh Gattis.
Miami is now 5 – 6 (3-4 Conf, 2-2 OOC) and occupies fifth place in the Coastal. Saturday is Miami’s Senior Day. Miami is hoping for a win to both celebrate the Senior’s and become bowl eligible.
Below is the schedule for both teams. I have added offensive/defense scoring stats for the five common Coastal Division opponents.
Here are the NCAA offensive stats comparison after week 12 action:
The offense revolves around QB play. I am showing the Miami QB stats I update weekly. I use ESPN game stats for my individual team stats but always verify with NCAA stats.
The question is who will start at QB – Van Dyke, Garcia, or Brown?
Van Dyke was injured against Duke, missed the Virginia game, started against FSU, but was reinjured and missed the last two games. It has been a revolving door at QB since the Duke game. As you will see, Jacurri Brown is the more mobile QB.
Miami RB’s and WR’s.
Miami’s leading rusher is Henry Parrish Jr. a 2020 Pitt decommitment. Their third leading rusher is QB Jacurri Brown. Either Brown feels pressure and runs or that the OC rather not have him pass.
The leading receiver is TE Will Mallory who leads in catches (33) and second in yards per catch (13.2). The TE’s account for 22% of the catches and 25% of total yards.
In reading about Miami, commentors, besides complaining about their OC, talked about Miami injuries. I decided to gather all the NCAA stats on game started and played. That data turned out to be incomplete with not one playing or starting eleven games. I gave up on that attempt to quantify the injuries.
On to the Miami offensive line. Chart includes players with (incomplete) game experience, TFL’s and sacks allowed statistics and a breakdown of pass/run/sacks ratios, average offense plays per games, True TFL’s Allowed as a percentage of Adjusted run plays and average offensive plays per game for both teams.
I had already finished this chart before I realized the data, I used was incomplete. There should be 55 starts not 49. While incomplete, it does show either the impact of injuries or finding adequate replacement for linemen not performing to expectations.
The data does indicate that Pitt is better in protecting the QB from sacks. Miami is better at opening holes for the RB’s.
That ends the Offensive review. On to the defense. I am starting with the NCAA defensive stats comparison.
No doubt in my mind concerning who has the better defense except for turnovers gained.
Let us take a look at the individual defense stats for Miami. I am only showing those defensive players with five or more total tackles and my attempt at duplicating a S&P+ statistic – Havoc Defense.
Miami has 35 players making a defensive stat but only 24 made my 5 plus tackles two-deep. The missing eleven names had a total of 24 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 interception and the missing interception TD. Pitt will not have to worry about the person with the missing interception and TD. He has already entered his name in the transfer portal.
The leader (Akheem Mesidor) in tackles and sacks on the defensive line is a West Virginia transfer.
I just now noticed that none of the DB’s has a sack. The LB’s collectively only have 5.5 sacks. The balance all comes from the defensive line.
Miscellaneous NCAA stats:
A few takeaways:
Pitt certainly needs to improve its special team performance.
Pitt penalties seem to have plateaued but not in a good place.
It would be nice if Pitt were plus three in turnovers against Miami.
Finally, Pitt cannot allow Miami to dominate Time of Possession. Duke won the TOP 33:50 to Pitt’s 26:10. That control caused Pitt to fall out of the top 10 to number 13.
Happy Thanksgiving to all. Enjoy your long weekend with family and friends.