in Pitt Football 692 Words

Peach Bowl Prediction Thread

Pitt’s bowl game is tomorrow, and seems almost anticlimactic doesn’t it? It shouldn’t though. 12 wins is the number everyone keeps talking about, and Pitt has a legit shot at at top-10 finish if they win, which in the grand scheme of things is a pretty nice cherry on top of the ACC-championship cake.

The question of course, is will they win? And if Kenny Pickett were playing I think we’d all feel pretty good about that. He’s not, however, and that horse has been pretty much beaten to death, so save your commentary. Instead, the relatively untried-and-untested Nick Patti will get the start. In my opinion that’s worth about a 15 point swing versus our season average. (Although 15 is a weird number in football, so I’ll just round it up to two touchdowns and a field goal). For those if you with accounting backgrounds, we average 43 points per game right now, so replacing Pickett with Patti, and subtracting 17 gets us to…26 points? Talk about your weird football numbers. I’ll round that right back up to 28. And that doesn’t even factor in the fact that you’ve got Tim Salem calling the plays. (For the record Pitt scored exactly 28 in the Military Bowl, when Salem last stepped in for a departed OC, so there you go. A data point.)

28 points? Yes. 28 points. Those of you with Pitt-colored glasses will point out that Michigan State’s pass defense is among the worst in the country, and that Pitt, regardless of who is under center, sports the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner, and as long as the ball can be put in the general vicinity of said Biletnikoff winner, fireworks should ensue. All of that that is a very fair commentary, and if you look at Nick Patti’s spring game highlights you will see that he’s fairly adept at hitting an open receiver (as long as it’s his first read).

Aside from Patti’s deftly thrown balls to Taysir Mack and Lucas Krull, you’ll also see some other things, good and bad. But not being one to spoil all the fun, I’ll let you call them out for yourselves.

Of course Michigan State has already broken down this film and studied it far more closely than any of us dilettantes ever could, and I’m sure put a game plan around Patti’s tendencies.

If it were me? I’d double Addison and make sure the short routes were covered, and make the inexperienced Patti beat me by getting the ball to his second and third guy. Of course if Patti’s “second or third guy” is actually his first guy then you’ll have a situation where Krull and Wayne are running free in the secondary and well, that’s a recipe for way more than 28 points. But again, I’m just a casual fan playing sportswriter, so what the heck do I know?

The second question of course is can Pitt’s defense stop Michigan State from scoring. On the surface the answer would seem to be “yes!”. After all our bread and butter is stopping the run and they are down to their second-string running back who by the numbers isn’t all that great. But, by our own Richard Hefner’s analysis, the Spartan passing game is actually not all that…um…Spartan. It’s actually pretty good.

Sophomore quarterback Payton Thorne sports a robust 150.3 passer rating, 8.5 YPA, and has thrown 24 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. That’s all with the benefit of a Heisman-candidate running back keeping defenses off-balance though. The optimist here will point out that there ain’t no way that the Spartans are going to be able to run the ball against this Pitt D. The pessimist will add that well, maybe they don’t have to…

Stats taken from SportsReference.com

As for me? I’ve used up all my gloom-and-doom for this season (which I’ll admit is usually a recipe for disaster…) I’ll hold out hope that Pat has ’em ready to go, Kenny Pickett is actually whispering plays in Tim Salem’s ear all evening long, and the Panther pass rush eats a hearty Eve-of-New-Year’s-Eve Dinner. Pitt 35, Sparty 17.

Hail to Pitt and Happy New Year!

Michaelangelo Monteleone

151 thoughts on “Peach Bowl Prediction Thread”

  1. I don’t do predictions—since I managed to jinx Pitt every time that I did one.

    I do have a question. Is it an indoor or outdoor stadium? And, if outdoor, what is the weather forecast in Peachland?

    pmdH2P

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  2. Patti will make Kedon Slovis pause for a minute and wonder if he picked the right team to transfer to. Pitt 44- MSU 31

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  4. I’ve never been there….according to Wikipedia it has a retractable roof. Sort of like the old Civic Arena.

    So it’s ironic kinda that we’re playing there as I believe the Civic Arena had the worlds first retractable roof sporting arena.

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    1. A little fun fact about the Civic Arena roof- my dad was a sheet metal worker and, with the assistance of an apprentice, cut out nearly every piece of metal for that roof. I have a couple Christmas ornaments made from the roof to remember it by.

      Liked by 13 people

      1. That’s so cool Annie. I thought the Civic Arena should have not been torn down, It has/had a place in this history of Pittsburgh and was part of engineering history as well.

        Liked by 1 person

  6. Was trying to post a link, that shows the Retractable Roof on this stadium. It’s quite remarkable, but this site isn’t allowing me to post links now. Somebody didn’t like my CDC links from yesterday I guess.

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  8. with KP, big win for Pitt, without experience at QB I just don’t see it

    far easier to plug in a RB than QB

    MSU 31
    Pitt 20

    frustrating end to a very good season(outside the terrible WMU game)

    hope I’m very wrong

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    1. Yep it’s asking much for a kid to come in, without much playing time and beat a ‘most favored nation’
      Big Joke team.

      We’ll see if Pickett was the Heart & Soul of this team for sure.

      Liked by 1 person

  9. To all those traveling I-85 south, use caution from the NC/SC stateline south through to Greenville, SC. My daughter lives in Greenville and says the stretch that is under construction has seen many an accident.

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  11. Doubling Addison was not possible with Whipple. He moved Addison around. He lines up at all WR positions. The trick is calling the right play. Whipple was masterful at it. Can Salem be?

    Liked by 2 people

  12. Your votes had an impact ladies and gentlemen. One last (and in some ways most impressive) accolade for Pitt’s Peach Bowl signal caller:

    “Pickett was selected as the 2021 Senior CLASS Award winner Wednesday, the award presented to the most outstanding senior FBS student-athlete as chosen by a panel of FBS coaches, national media and fans.
    Pickett’s on- and off-the-field impact for Pitt this season embodied what the CLASS (Celebrating Loyalty and Achievement for Staying in School) Award stands for.”

    Liked by 7 people

  13. I hope the Big 12 is truly the Big Joke and MSU is overhyped but……

    I look at Michigan States Athletic huge O and D lines and see a huge mismatch! Also, it’s much easier replacing a running back than a Heisman nominated QB.

    Patti will have to play like Pickett to keep it close. Don’t think it happens

    MSU 35- Pitt 10

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  14. Spartans will overplay Addison leaving opportunities for Patti to hit our tight ends and our running backs on short routes. Speaking of running backs it will extremely interesting to see how Salem uses them.
    Pitt 31 MSU 21

    Liked by 1 person

  15. I believe Pitt’s defensive front 7 is legit with several rotating options. That should help on the side of the ball, especially bringing more and more pressure as the game goes on.

    As for the offense, give some extra kudos for the O-Line coming back as a unit. I predict a good run game and passes to our talented TE duo to move the ball.

    I say Pitt 33 / MSU 24.

    H2P!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. KP8 saved Drexel numerous times. He’s coming back for another year…

      Tomorrow night he needs replaced after the 1st bad snap – he has the yipes and rarely is there a cure for the yipes. We do have two centers who are better.

      NIL – pay him to graduate

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  17. Mrs. Erie’s big disappointment at the moment is that her Michael Kors back pack never arrived and we needed to request a refund.

    She tells me to tell yinz that tomorrow night, that better still be her biggest disappointment.

    Tremendous pressure on Patti, Salem and Duzz.

    Liked by 5 people

  19. MSU beat Michigan….without KP I think we’re going to get waxed. Just another bowl feeling though….

    Looks like Clemson and Iowa St. are having a Sun Bowl kinda game tonight.

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  22. Michigan State is a Wake Forest clone playing in the Big 10. Pitt’s defense handled Wake after a slow start. Pitt won’t put up as many points. Pitt 27 – MSU 17.

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  24. Finally got into Atlanta. Waze had us arriving at 5:21 (we left at 7 am). Pulled into our hotel just before 8 pm. Tried to go to Hudson Grille for a Pitt meet up. It was packed with a lot of people waiting so we finallybfound a Diner that was open. This town rolled up the sidewalks early. Not much is open. Glad we brought beer for the hotel…..
    H2P!

    Liked by 4 people

  25. I don’t do predictions, but for those who do you should probably know that my track record attending bowl games is 1-6. And I’m in Atlanta for the game. FWIW.

    The single win was the 77 Sugar Bowl.

    Liked by 1 person

  26. It’s a tough projection with Patti getting his first spin versus this level of competition but Michigan State has given up gobs of yards to almost everyone they’ve faced. I think Patti rises to the occasion and Pitt escapes with a 31-30 victory.

    Liked by 2 people

  27. I think this will be a relatively low scoring game. Pitt will manage to score 21 points, but MSU may score a bit more. Unless Pitt gets a couple of turnovers, I’m predicting MSU wins 24-21. I hope I’m wrong..

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      1. Game should be a good measuring stick of how the best in the ACC stands against one of the best in the BIGwhateverhowmany…..Can Jolly St Nick lead the “We not Me” team and deliver that final Christmas present??? Now! Bart, now Krull, now Addi and and Izzy…On! Carter, on Kradel, on Minor, on Houy…now blow’em away…blow’em away ..blow’em away all…

        Liked by 7 people

  29. My heart says an inexperienced Patti vs a legit Big 10 team is a recipe for disaster. My heart says what Tyler Palko said after his big victory over Notre Dame. I’m going with my heart….Pitt wins 33-28.

    Liked by 2 people

  30. Ohio State 56 MSU 7 this year. I say Pitt 30 MSU 17 if they are lucky to score 17. And PSU should have never lost their game against MSU and I still think Pitt is better than PSU even with Patti at QB.—–Keep in mind Patti will be auditioning for the transfer portal in this game. He graduates and has two remaining years of eligibility to play. I don’t think he will want to stick around to be second fiddle to Slovis.

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  32. Show the Panthers the western Michigan game film for a lunch movie today—get them pissed and fired up . Take care of business tonight.

    Liked by 4 people

  33. Paul Zeise radio show from Hudson Grille last night was fun to listen to…
    He said Pitt fans exceeded his expectations, that they had 250 t shirts for give away and were gone in 15 minutes.
    Stated they could have given away a thousand…

    Waiting for the attendants to open the gates at my driveway so the tailgate can begin at 2:00.
    I’m a creature of habit.😎

    Liked by 7 people

  34. Pitt’s Top 7 OL average 317 lbs. Pitt’s rotation of DL average 281.

    MSU starting OL average 317 lbs. MSU’s starting DL averages 285.

    It’s a wash. There is no mythical Big10 line advantage.

    I’ll take Pitt’s DL athleticism over MSU.

    As far as the O lines. Hard to compare totally different styles of offense. Pitt’s a passing team, MSU a run team. Obviously you could say they run block better, Pitt pass blocks better but that’s just stating the obvious based on style.

    Liked by 2 people

  35. Unfortunately, Pitt is at a huge disadvantage with a back up QB and no OC. F Whipple. Pitt would dominate with Picket.

    I hope I am wrong, but I expect Pitt to struggle on offense.

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    1. It wasn’t long ago my friend that POVers were saying PITT would be better off with a 100% absent football staff, if that’s what you want to call it?

      Liked by 2 people

  40. Pitt lovefest today on Packer and Durham. If you did not watch it live, it ususally comes on immediatley after. ACCN will have a good pregame as well, although sounds like 93.7 TheFan will also do that.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Not so much of a love fest in XM84 college sports radio – they continue to question the two Kenny’s decision to opt-out.

      Childers the Show Pony said he wants to Pickett the Peach Bowl in protest to the opt-outs.

      Every one has an opinion – these guys keep hitting the Peach Bowl hard.

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  41. losing Mathis is a big deal IMO….our pass D is the weak link, again, that’s my opinion. D has to be able to get off the field and PITT has to exercise some ball control with ZERO stupid mental errors on both sides of the ball…..PITT has to play it’s normal game on O..

    Liked by 3 people

    1. I was thinking the same. Our best cover corner in our style of D is pretty big. I’m hoping we have enough depth there; ourlads is slating AJ Woods in for Mathis’ spot.

      I am pleased we are getting Stovall back. I felt like Addison & Wayne were our best 2 receivers all year, but Stovall runs good routes and seems to fill in as a kind of slot guy; in fact, I’d take Stovall back over Mack just because of the type of element he adds.

      My biggest concerns are how are Lines will match up vs Mich St. Not saying we will not match up, just don’t know what to think; we did not fare well in this area vs Miami.

      Liked by 1 person

  42. I am as excited this morning as I was in 77 for the Pitt – GA game.
    Makes me feel young again! I just want Pitt to play well and win! I don’t care how. H2P

    Liked by 4 people

  43. Pingback: ES Preview: Peach Bowl vs Narduzzis – Enlightened Spartan

  44. If Pitt can put the kind of pressure on the Spartans QB that they did in Charlotte, I think the Panthers win the game. Patti will not need to put on a Pickett-like display if so, but the offense needs to play mistake-free…. avoid the pre-snap penalties and turnovers. Think Patti may get happy feet more than 2021 Kenny, but his mobility can help keep drives alive.

    And really important that Pitt does not fall behind by two or more scores, placing pressure on the passing game (i.e. Patti) to play catch-up.

    I think this game will be won/lost in the trenches.

    Liked by 2 people

  45. Agree with JoeL above…replay of Packer and Durham on now.
    Jimbo Covert soon, Dooz and Heather later in the show.
    I need to see what color blouse Heather wears 😩
    Joking..
    Joking.

    Liked by 5 people

    1. I have to say for as much disdain as I’ve held for Tobacco Road provincialists (which has included the ACC HQ), when you win the championship, they treat you very well. Very clear that Mark Packer has affection for Pitt and the folks there. Nice to see that this past season, topped off by today.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Packer was big on the PITT band wagon in 2020…his favorite ACC player was Paris Ford…like the rest of us Packer expected the D to lead PITT to a big year in 2020…then Twyman quiopted (howmany words can you make out of those letters) and his favorite player opquited to get ready for the NFL….whatever happened to Paris??? I’m seriously asking.

        Liked by 1 person

        2. NFL teams don’t like quitters with a lack of loyalty and lack of love for the game. They don’t mind a business decision like skipping a bowl game though. Hopefully this is a wakeup call for players and their agents.

          Liked by 1 person

  46. MM – a most excellent article. I especially appreciated you including the spring-game clips. I remembered the Troy Nunes-ish TD pass from Patti to Krull, but not the rest…

    My head says MSU 27, Pitt 24. My heart says the team is going to win one for ike, Fran, Scooter, BigB, ErieExpress, Wolfe and the rest of Panther Nation by a score of 31-27.

    I want to see Nick Patti play the big game like that other No. 12, Matt Kavanugh, played the big game.

    And I understand from listening to Ron Cook that Pitt has never won 12 games, so this would be a unique achievement!! 🎅

    Hail to Pitt!

    Liked by 4 people

  48. ACCN is doing an awesome job.
    Comcast came in just in time.

    Clemson wins their 15th straight bowl game, think it doesn’t matter to them? Eleven 10 win years in a row, but we are the Champions!!!!

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  50. Mike Golic Jr doing the Duke’s Mayo bowl just ate an Oreo cookie dunked in mayo…
    Yucckkky!
    Although I once had chop suey with Oreos so what do I know…

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Zeise was saying last night that Pitt doesn’t test players with no symptoms. UCLA went the other route….so no, all good here.

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  56. OT but good:
    On Thursday, Ithiel Horton’s four charges – Aggravated Assault, Resisting Arrest, Disorderly Conduct, and Public Drunkenness – were all dismissed

    Liked by 6 people

  59. On Covid issues who knows but Camp was missing from the DL photo yesterday and Pine was missing from the LB photo also. There could be a good reason for both but I’m just guessing it may be Covid related.

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    1. Maybe a hard night of partying…. That’s what the 76 team did on the eve of winning the NC…. lottsa tequila will give a person flu-like symptoms the morning after!!!at least that’s what I’ve heard…

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  60. JoeL ^^ Pickett didn’t play a Pickett game against Wake then again he didn’t have to. The defense drove Hartman over the edge that game. By the end he looked like he belonged in an insane-asylum.

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      1. This is true. I think they did that guy a grave disservice constantly talking about it to the point of harping on it. Then, they kept showing him on the sideline looking all disheveled as if to prove the point of all of the time the spent talking about his mental issues. I was honestly embarrassed for Hartman

        Liked by 1 person

  61. Our running game as not so hot.
    So if Patti struggles, gonna be a long night.
    Pitt – 13
    The other Michigan team – 31

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    2. Like JoeL, I think there’s untapped potential in our running attack and there were several opportunities this year where we could have leaned on it more heavily to close out games. I expect a big day out of the running back corps — more than 200 yards on the ground.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. That would make it a lot easier on Patti wouldn’t it. We avg around 152 yards per game,,,,,so 200 is doable.

        Usually our passing attack opens up the Running later in the game. Will the passing attack be good enough today ? The deep throws kept opponents Safeties out of the Box….can Patty throw deep ?

        We shall see. You don’t have to connect on the Deep throws, (although that would be great), but you have to show them the Deep throw. To keep their Safeties out of the box.

        Liked by 1 person

  62. Dear Pitt…
    Don’t fall apart on me tonight
    I just don’t think that I could handle it
    Don’t fall apart on me tonight
    Yesterday’s just a memory
    Tomorrow is never what it’s supposed to be
    And I need you, yeah

    Liked by 5 people

    2. PittPov!!! No where else can you:

      get your football fix from intelligent, articulate, informed writers whose lives you actually care about

      AND

      get it with an on-the-money reference to a Bob Dylan song I had never heard.

      Thanks, Jackagain

      aka LA Panther

      Liked by 2 people

  64. The Tar Heels just got their butts handed to them by South Carolina… Earlier this year Tennessee beat the gamecocks 45–20

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    1. Yet we have the dangest time trying to beat those Tarholes.

      Would love to really beat up on them…sometime. Next Year, Next Year in Chapel Hell !!

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  65. Probably be a good choice…to start drinking now. In order to be able to somewhat handle the inane babble of the 2 idiot ABC/Espn announcers who did the ACC championship game.

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    1. I hate to say it but I think once RGIII gets some experience I think he is going to be very good. Having said that I didn’t think Pitt would win 6 games this year.

      Liked by 1 person

    1. Pitt is just starting to get a little chemistry with this mix of players. Although his outside shooting, when he’s on (not often) will be welcome, he’s a defensive liability. And this team has to win with Defense.
      But I guess another body off the bench won’t hurt….we’ll see.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. hmmm….so is the cop a Pitt fan or not. He might have had no choice to arrest him, since other cops were around that night I’m guessing. But…..hey…..i can’t make the hearing. lol

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  68. Pitt is Undefeated in the great looking Road Warrior White & Yellows this year. 6-0

    Therefore my prediction is:

    Pitt 33
    Michigan St. 32

    Liked by 2 people

  69. Looks like this game is pretty much a toss-up. That said, I’m thinking that Nick Patti – because of his limited real-game experience, is going to make at least 2 or 3 risky throws, or throws where he gets fooled by the defense.

    The outcome of the game, IMHO, will depend largely on what happens on those 2 or 3 or so plays. If MSU gets a pick-6 or two, then we’re in big trouble; if those mistakes get dropped by the DB or fall harmlessly to the turf, then I suspect we have a good shot.

    Would love to see Patti have a solid game – seems like a good teammate…

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. In a post above it guessed MSU scores 27. My head says we lose 27-24.

        But I’m hoping the magic somehow continues and Pitt wins 31-27.

        H2P!

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        1. Yes I know what u mean MM. My pick was based on intuition and hoping there is something to the numerology i’m seeing.

          Plus I’ve been on Pitt all year……I’m not going to get off them now….regardless.

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  71. I’ve felt confident about this game ever since the matchup was announced…BUT I had a “what are you thinking!” moment this morning. New quarterback???!!! Not a good thing against a Big 10+ Klingon battle wagon. Nonetheless, I don’t see our scrappy Federation troops allowing too many casualties.

    Pitt 23

    MSU 21 (misses last minute FG)

    Liked by 2 people

      1. sigh…i know, i know

        once Narduzzi gets sick & tired of Salem’s Model T offense…..he’ll given Coach M another call to come back home “a 2nd time” and run his GO-GO offense as the new O.Coordinator

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  74. The prosecution wanted to delay Horton’s case a second time.
    I’m all for Justice and appropriate punishment, but how does a double delay translate into a fair and speedy trial?
    What a mess!

    On a different note, looking forward to my Panthers putting on a good show!
    H2P!

    Liked by 3 people

  77. The Pitt app shows that Horton has been reinstated to the basketball team and the VT game has been postponed.

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  78. MSU is now favored by 3.5 points. If I were a betting man, I’d take the points cause I think they have the line as backwards.

    Watching the game with three of my best Pitt fan acquaintances – Mrs. Erie and two college student nephews from Erie.

    While there are many Pitt fans I’d love to watch this game with, some on the POV, this trio is extra special 🤩🤩🤩

    Liked by 3 people

  79. The POV (and particular this article is now used as an authority on Pitt.

    Go back to Dan72 comment today at 10:55 am & there is a “Pingback” from a site call Enlightened Spartans. They used it as the solitary Pitt site to make a prediction. The use of the Pitt POV is at bottom of ES’s article.

    Never seen a pingback on the POV before.

    Here is the link to ES.

    Like

  81. Ithiel Horton stuff not going away quite yet …

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  83. I thankfully have been repeatedly wrong when attempting to predict Pitt football losses this year. I was wrong on Tenn, Clemson, UVA and UNC ( sadly correct on Miami). I hope to be wrong again. As I just think it’s unrealistic to think that Patti is Pickett lite after having only attempted and completed one pass this year vs a Power 5 opponent, I think that’s just too big of an ask. Hope I am wrong. Also, I have no confidence in Salem to call plays.

    I believe the defense will be ok. However, I do worry about turnovers (a lot) that will give Mich St a short field.

    I will be drinking Peanut Butter whiskey to calm my nerves and improve my disposition…

    31-17 bad guys .Hope I am wrong and will happily eat crow…and wash it down with some whiskey…

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  85. I think we will establish the running game earlier without Whipple and KP, with heavier doses of Izzy and Hammond. This will help keep the pressure off of Patti and let him get warmed up. Then let the fireworks begin. no one can cover Addison and Barden and Stovall are also deep threats opening up the underneath
    throws.

    Hopefully our D doesn’t give up too many early points.

    Like

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