2021 – Production Loss Florida State

2021 Production Lost – Florida State

I am doing the non-ACC Pitt opponents in alphabetical order. That means Florida State.

Mike Norvell is entering his third season as head coach of the Florida State Seminoles (FSU). He is trying to recapture the glory of FSU football achieved under Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fischer. He is not the first to try. Willie Taggert’s had two seasons to try (11 – 14, 7 – 9 conf) but did not succeed. Norvell is 8 – 13 overall and 6 – 10 conference and that is why this maybe a make or break year for Norvell.

2021 schedule and results and upcoming 2022 schedule.

Will the Duquesne Dukes make it two in a row for the FCS? No, not happening. But the FSU fans can take pride in not running up their per game scoring average against an FCS foe.

For color coding, a light blue color indicates a player who is leaving the team due to eligibility or the NFL. A reddish pink color indicates the player left via the TP. A bright green color are for those with medical, grades or disciplinary reasons. There are very, very few of the “bright green” and only one on FSU.

Usually, I give the color coding after the recruiting/TP activity chart. FSU has a commit who has not signed his national letter of intent. On Rivals, he is included in the team rankings. I am not positive but I believe he is not included on 24/7 since he is not in the signed category.

Here are the Rivals 5.7 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the 10 current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

Seven offensive players, three defensive players plucked from the portal.

Jared Verse, an unranked high school recruit, signed with Albany in the class of 2019. He was a hot commodity in the TP based on his 24/7 re-rank (0.9400 4-star comparable to a Rivals 5.9 4-star) . Here is a link to an ESPN article. Nate Byham is mentioned in the article.

Jared Verse’s move from Albany to Florida State is a transfer portal success story in the making (espn.com)

FSU currently has 23 scholarship players listed as being entered  into the TP. There are an additional 4 walk-ons who may or may not have been on scholarship during the 2021 season. Of those 23 scholarship players, there are twelve defensive players and eleven offensive players. In total, nine of the offensive and defensive players had a stat.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the All ACC teams.

The  offense revolves around QB play.

FSU now has three scholarship QB’s – Travis, Rodemaker and 2022 Rivals 5.8  4-star A.J. Duffy. Very few 2021 QB backup stats. Milton started four games and saw action in two more in 2021.

Florida State running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production for the first four teams reviewed.

But first, I added a few tweaks to the chart. I have broken out the Rushing stats by RB’s, WR’s, and QB’s rushing stats. I did the same for the Receiving stats – WR’s, TE’s, RB’s & Other. It now looks similar to the defensive stats breakdown.

As long as the offensive/defensive coordinators carryover from one year to the next, you can gain a little insight into the style of offense/defense that team plays. For example, FSU only had eight WR rushes. BC had seven. Clemson had one and Pitt under Whipple had seventeen.

I also added the pass/run percentage (Rounded pass 43% run 57%).

Pitt is now the team with the lowest returning production of the 4 teams reviewed.

Like Boston College, Florida States offensive weakness may be its offense line.

I also added some offensive line stats – tackles for loss allowed (TFL) and (a subset of TFL) sacks. By NCAA definition sacks are classified as a TFL, and a run attempt (and not a pass attempt). This action can lead to overstating run attempts and understating pass attempts.

To shore up FSU’s line, they added two players from the portal. One addition is in his final year of eligibility. The other has one additional year after this season. Those additions are for immediate help. Compare that to the WR’s and RB who are for depth and immediate help with three to four years of eligibility remaining.

The offensive line needs shaping up. Between sacks and “True” tackles for loss, the Oline gave up negative yardage on 10.3% of FSU offense plays. In comparison, Pitt’s Oline gave up negative yardage on (34 sacks and 42 “True” TFL) 76 plays or 7.1% of 1,069 total plays.

From what I have read, Norvell wants a more balanced offense. Currently, FSU is run heavy 57% versus 43% pass. They and you should know that the problem is not as bad as it seems. Add sacks to the mixture moves that mix down to 52% – 48%. Pitt’s problem is the opposite. Add the 34 sacks allowed to pass attempts and instead of the 51% pass – 49% run you will get a 54% – 46% mix.

That wraps up the offensive production lost part of the article. On to the Florida State defense.

FSU had 45 players make a defensive stat. Nine of them were offense players. An additional two were special teams players. That leaves 35 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and those twelve players who did not make at least double digit tackles.

I did add a total line for the 23 players on the chart. You can compare those numbers to the summary totals for all defensive stats.

The defensive line led the way in production lost. They picked up one DE (Verse hopefully, to help replace 2021 portal pickup Jermaine Johnson from Georgia and 2020 portlier Kier Thomas from South Carolina). They also picked up a LB & a DB. The FSU fans say Norvell needs to be bowl eligible (six wins) this year. That is all I have. Next up – NC State.

70 thoughts on “2021 – Production Loss Florida State

  1. How far the mighty have fallen. Pitt’s first game in the ACC was a beat down by Jameis Winston and FSU, the eventual National Champions. I remember most how their fans took over Heinz Field.

    In fact it is dumbfounding how poor the Florida schools have been for some time considering how many great players come from the state.

    Makes what Narduzzi accomplished last year even more amazing.

    Thanks Richard, super stuff as usual.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Well, Venables coached in the state of South Carolina for years, so he is most familiar with Beville.OK also lost their true number 1 via portal potty, so there is a chance for him to see the field. It’s a good move in some respects. He needs to get on the jump rope to help his foot quickness as he will face some crazy defensive speed in the SEC next year. Why not give it a go? Worse case scenario, he hits the portal again and goes to a lower division.

      I wish him lots of luck!

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      1. I following the MAC Conference as well as Pitt and was expecting Davis to transfer to a place like Bowling Green or OU being Ohio University. I’m not sure who gave him guidance on this decision.

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        1. Probably the people in the photograph and the head coach who gets to OU late in the recruiting cycle and sees a need for several qb’s to get that room competitive. “Aaron” Davis Beville with his smooth sounds, played against the highly touted venable defense in 2020, going 1 of 2 for 16 yards. Plus, he had a decent showing against MSU in the bowl game, albeit with a bunch of loss yards via sacks, hence the jump rope training recommendation.

          Sitting behind a first round draft pick helps sell the vision to a coach that sees positives from the kid in his only opportunities. Why not give it a go from both sides? Worst case scenario, welcome to the MAC next year after spring ball. Also, Venable as a head coach closer may be different than a DC recruiter.

          Richard, nice article on the Noles. I do think Norvell will get them on the positive side of .500 this year. He was 3-5 covid year, 5-7 last year, so I expect a 2 game swing this year to 7-5. They have a tough schedule playing LSU and FL out of conference. In other news, famous Jameis age 28, received his undergraduate degree.

          Liked by 1 person

        2. Did Beville really get a chance to show what he can do in the bowl game?

          The O-line was horrific that game and looked slow and fat. Must’ve really eaten well over the holidays before the Peach Bowl. That was a disappointing performance, to say the least.

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          1. You’ll see a photo of the boys on a roller coaster at kennywood this summer. I guarantee it.

            Who is Pitts strength and conditioning coach this year?

            And they can’t blame the ‘O’ anymore.

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        3. Get prepared to comment during the Western Michigan article. I can do the stats but have very limited insight into the WMU background stories. Almost as bad as that basketball school Duke.

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      2. I guess hope springs eternal, but I think a better path would have been to find the best program where he would start, like our guy that went to JMU. Then you can actually show what you can do.

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  2. It appears as early as next year, there may well be no more Coastal and Atlantic divisions in the ACC. Coaches and ADs meeting in Amelia Island

    Packer & Durham discussing this and NIL with coaches and sportswriters on ACCN right now with replay at 10 am

    Sent from my iPhone

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  3. If divisions are eliminated hopefully the two common opponents for Pitt are Syracuse and Georgia Tech.

    It’d be ideal to go to nine conference games and three OOC.

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  4. Richard you amaze me with your abilities to break down a mountain of statistics.
    The Seminoles are obviously sitting in a State loaded with superior talent and they are able to recruit a
    good number of 4* players and yet they are a mediocre team. Coaching/coaching/coaching!!! Pitt fans have had a reason to complain about our coaches for many years, however, if I lived in Florida I would be blowing a fuse box over the well paid coaches who underperform every year. The Seminoles and Gators should both be competing toe to toe with Alabama/Clemson and Georgia. In Florida football talent grows on palm trees.

    Liked by 2 people

  5. The one disadvantage of a 9 game conference schedule is that if you’re playing ND that year, you only have 2 openings to play with. And especially, every other year you are automatically playing 5 away games, and if you’re playing ND away, there are 6 away games. Pitt has WVU or Wisc scheduled thru 2032, and those games are home and home

    Sent from my iPhone

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  6. Maybe I’m missing something, but I see no advantage in eliminating the division alignments in favor of some other conference structure. Most college football fans like having some local rivalries, and traditional match ups, on their schedules. This is what college football is all about, and inter-conference games are great for TV, especially early in the season. For example, I think a Pitt/USC match up might be interesting to watch. The emphasis should be on fixing the current problems with NIL and transferring, and leaving the alignments alone.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. If we are being honest we don’t have a rival in the ACC. Not in the true sense of a rival. Think about this. PSU and WVU are rivals and we are all in 3 different conferences and the schools are all located within 3-4 hours of each other. SMH

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Cuse and BC come closest due to the historical number of games played. Va Tech is good based on geography. Pitt will never play Penn State again. Pitt will most likely play WVCC once the super league is formed. Temple and Rutgers will be back on the schedule. And Maryland has a chance to become a good rival.

        I’d enjoy playing northeast schools more than southern. Don’t care about anything south of the Virginia/Carolina border.

        BC, Cuse, Rutgers, temple, Maryland, Virginia, va tech, Louisville, Cincy and wvcc.

        That would be a good conference. Would need one more school however.

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      2. No need for a rival in the ACC, let’s just play ball. Every road trip and interaction at Heinz with the fans of our ACC foes has been positive in my experience. I may be getting old, but I’ve lost the desire to further experience dodging batteries and insults from the Hoopies and hearing PSU grads talk about how their school is a public ivy and JoePa is God…that makes me ill. I hope we keep playing mid level SEC schools like Tenn. that have beautiful women in the stands and sumptuous barbecue in the parking lot.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I never tire of hearing eat 💩 pitt, or having pitt fans make jokes about teeth, sheep and degrees. I also never tire about pointing out how the grand experiment failed and how JoePa was a coward and hypocrite.

          Rivalries are based on geography and history. Pitt has no rivals in the South and Never will. Granted the women are nice to look at. Just don’t touch.

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      3. Agreed – there are no natural rivalries for Pitt in the ACC currently. Good rivalries are usually based on some fundamental or perceived difference between the schools (flagship u. of one state vs. flagship u. of another state /public v. private / urban v. rural / catholic v. convict / academically prestigious vs. non-prestigious). Apart from that, you build rivalries when both teams are consistently good and someone is dashing someone else’s dreams and stealing their glory.

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  7. The schedule model the ACC is discussing is e having either 2 or 3 common opponents and the rest of the schedule being rotated. Thus teams will play each other more often as opposed to once every 6 or 7 years

    The championship game will be between the teams with best records. There is the possibility that the championship game will not be played since the NCAA oversight committee has changed its mind about the importance of the game for being selected for the playoffs

    Sent from my iPhone

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    Liked by 1 person

    1. That keeps Notre Dame an independent for sure. It’s the ND rule. Might actually open pathways for more teams going independent if their respective conference is on the “outs” for getting into the playoffs. Just a quick thought without thinking thru ramifications.

      Voice – college football “was” all about rivals. No more. It is all about the Benjamin’s.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. There will be judgement day. Those schools who believe in the scholar athlete model and those who believe in profiteering. Pitt is best served with the old school model with some evolutionary modifications. It doesn’t have the brand, fanbase, revenues or culture to support going all in on the semi pro model. That’s why we are not Penn State.

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  8. Nice job, Richard.

    What I appreciated most though was the Pitt stat you worked in. I’ve wondered about Pitt’s “true” pass-run ratio and you provided it… 👍

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Florida State hauls in the most revenues of any ACC school but they are cash poor. They spend it all and then some. Fiscal mismanagement at its finest. However they have gone from a community college college school (aka diploma mill) much like what Central Florida is today to a well respected school for academics.

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    1. I wonder if FSU administrators woke up in the 2000s when the football team had all those academic suspensions for the bowl game and a tutor came out and said a majority of the players read at a third-grade level.

      We saw Pitt destroy its athletics for academics when Evans had his five-man Prop 48 class in 1989 and the BoT freaked out.

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      1. Nate – This comment was hung up by WordPress. I approved it.

        I got an email from WP to moderator the problem. That email was the first I have ever received from them. Prior to this occurrence, I had to either read a comment saying a prior comment was hung up or search in WP’s four or 5 buckets of it deposits comments in.

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          1. No – Without having to moderate my own comment, you used the word in question correctly but now it also has a political meaning.

            Btw, FSU didn’t change standards in the 2000’s. When Tibbetts took over from Fisher after the 2017 season, he found out FSU was rapidly approaching NCAA sanctions on APR. FSU had the P5 lowest APR. He was told that the previous coaches and staff had a mission to keep the players academically eligible no matter how.

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  10. This is what florida state thinks

    https://www.tomahawknation.com/florida-state-football-fsu-seminoles/2022/5/9/23064257/should-acc-eliminate-divisions-football-clemson-miami-duke-louisville-conference-schedule-opponent

    And have no idea how FSU improved so dramatically academic wise. Maybe hiring better profs, putting more money into placement and internships, raising the academic standards, focusing on the right programs, doing more to retain students. Whatever, it worked.

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  11. Gallagher should have probably followed this formula. Just wonder if he was forced to resign. But ten years is a long time. And he’s probably best suited for the lab and government bureaucracy anyway. His legacy will be transitional. I expect the next chancellor (woman) to oversee fundamental change and be there for 20 years.

    https://news.fsu.edu/news/university-news/2021/09/13/student-success-powers-fsus-top-20-ranking-by-u-s-news-world-report/

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    1. Will continue to say this until the cows come home. Every school manipulates the rankings. The most lately, is Rutgers. Disgruntled employees are typically the way that these behind the scenes administrative manipulators get caught.

      https://www.nj.com/education/2022/04/rutgers-created-fake-jobs-for-graduates-to-boost-mba-program-rankings-lawsuit-charges.html

      They all do it to a certain extent so please stop thinking these schools are something they just aren’t, including our own. The newest debate on rankings is around reporting of sat and act scores. Many schools have gone test optional, however, if the school reports its students test scores, they get more ranking points. Can’t make it up folks. The list goes on and on and the lists are self reported to the rankings bureau, HLC.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. To a certain extent I buy what you say but FSU has improved across the board on nearly every metric. And it wasn’t a fluke and took years. Very difficult to fake or manipulate. Why is it so hard to admit that they just rolled up their sleaves and did a good job. Now compare that to what Gallagher has done.

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    2. According to the release (don’t care enough to check independently) high graduation (84%) and freshman retention rates (93%) were key drivers of FSU’s improved position. Also, it’s easier to move up the rankings when you’re from a rapdily growing state because you’ll constantly have more graduating HS seniors in your state competing for roughly the same number of spots at the state universities, which lowers the acceptance rate and increases selectivity, a major factor in how these rankings are calculated.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Bingo UM! This is why athletics is so important. Successful athletic programs bring more applications to the university, which bring in higher quality students, which bring in higher retention rates, which bring in better academic and medical research dollars. It’s all about the Benjamins! This is why UFlorida shot up the rankings in the last 20 years. Sports gets recognition and applications and watch how it grows!

        I am quite certain that rankings manipulation started to occur since about 1995, ten years or so after usnews started making money off of their production and schools realized the importance of the production to the supply chain of students. It’s big business.

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      2. And they didn’t fake the numbers or manipulate the numbers unless you have hard proof. It took time but administrators focused on criteria that mattered to improve their academic ranking. If it was so easy to fake, everyone would do it. And I don’t buy that some schools are exceptional at faking. That’s not sustainable. FSU deserves credit for their accession. Whereas wvcc has done nothing to improve their situation.

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        1. Says whom?? How much hard proof do you want to see? Stated differently, show me all of the bag men in athletics. According to this site and many others, it is quite prevalent, but little hard proof. Would you be comforted in knowing that there are departments hired specifically to look at credentialing and rankings through the Higher Learning Commission? Lawsuits abound in this area for a reason? Get me a consult gig at fsu and I will show you, I promise!

          What does criteria that mattered mean? Mattered to whom? Try this as an example: Want to improve your retention rates, have students complete an academic evaluation of their professors. Why? Faculty will want high scores from students as it helps them continue in their effort to obtain tenure. The result is often grade inflation by the professor with a net result of less dropouts. Universities aren’t dumb. Why? Because universities are run by ….ummmm, researchers who look at and study data to formulate hypotheses. They can tweak data to achieve different results (like rankings). It is their profession. That is how they are trained! They just found out that by tweaking things, they get more Benjamins! Good grief man! Your fake ACT score is quite good, given the average ACT score for FSU is 28.

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  12. The hoopies are rocking Pitt in the 1st inning of the rubber match of the Back Yard Brawl.

    Their batters were 4 for 7 with 3 runs.

    Pitt batters went 1-2-3 with 2 K’s.

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  13. 9-1 hoopies in the 8th – Pitt still with only one hit.

    An absolute gumming of our Panther baseball team.

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  14. From a PSN article that updates the Jordan Addison portal experience:

    This (Texas visit) is the first of a few official visits that Addison is expected to make. Other stops could include USC, who is viewed as the favorite to land him, along with Alabama and Tennessee.

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    1. Should be loads of fun watching Addison sticking it to the team responsible for helping him become the Fred Biletnikoff winner

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  15. Concerned we would have 3 permanent scheduled FB teams such as Miami, NC and Clem in the non division ACC setup.

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  16. Pitt will need to win the series against the Domers and tech to have a outside shot at regionals. Bad, real bad loss, by Pitt. Pitt has now lost 5 of the last 6 to them.

    And too bad pitt ladies softball isn’t playing in the championships they are hosting. But at least the tourney is on campus.

    Word for the wise, when you fire or force a resignation, make sure your bird in hand is far better. Bad hire by heather.

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  17. Richard – thanks for the insightful report on the Noles.

    Im really impressed with Travis. Kid has moxie. Closed the deal against Miami last year.
    I won’t be surprised if they win 8 or more thhis season. Favorable schedule and the QB. A winning formula.

    Liked by 2 people

  18. Almost didn’t thank you after the “Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics” comment. Travis will be the next Malik Cunningham (Louisville) in very similar offenses. I’m guessing max of 7 wins. I would be happy if they only won one game as long as it’s Miami.

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      1. I know. If I knew how to call up emoji’s I would have had a few smiley faces after that comment.

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      2. Rutgers and Maryland baseball are the top two BIG JOKE baseball teams this season.

        Yes, Rutgers and Maryland.

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  19. A few thangs:

    Great job Richard, I would hold on to the new article until this one gets a few more days. Hate to see it buried so soon.

    Not me Richard, I didn’t say it (“Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics”) Although they are best left for the professionals, like the one the POV has. 😉

    haha, Texas is scared of a little beans.. haha…

    Get ahead?? Not for PITT, They are always in the fish bowl.

    How about this dam heat in Pittsburgh? Phew, I can’t take…. 🙂 !!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Ike – you and Richard should go back and re-read the thread. It was comment about Rutgers bending the rankings. Had nothing to do about Richard’s stat work.

      I know firsthand that he is a master craftsman when calculating and presenting the figures and does so in a dispassionate manner.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Never read your comment JoeL, I didn’t see it.. It was kinda like an inside joke between the two of us. I know you a lot better than that buddy. You my friend are one of the untouchables…

        Like

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