2021 – Production Loss Florida State

2021 Production Lost – Florida State

I am doing the non-ACC Pitt opponents in alphabetical order. That means Florida State.

Mike Norvell is entering his third season as head coach of the Florida State Seminoles (FSU). He is trying to recapture the glory of FSU football achieved under Bobby Bowden and Jimbo Fischer. He is not the first to try. Willie Taggert’s had two seasons to try (11 – 14, 7 – 9 conf) but did not succeed. Norvell is 8 – 13 overall and 6 – 10 conference and that is why this maybe a make or break year for Norvell.

2021 schedule and results and upcoming 2022 schedule.

Will the Duquesne Dukes make it two in a row for the FCS? No, not happening. But the FSU fans can take pride in not running up their per game scoring average against an FCS foe.

For color coding, a light blue color indicates a player who is leaving the team due to eligibility or the NFL. A reddish pink color indicates the player left via the TP. A bright green color are for those with medical, grades or disciplinary reasons. There are very, very few of the “bright green” and only one on FSU.

Usually, I give the color coding after the recruiting/TP activity chart. FSU has a commit who has not signed his national letter of intent. On Rivals, he is included in the team rankings. I am not positive but I believe he is not included on 24/7 since he is not in the signed category.

Here are the Rivals 5.7 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the 10 current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

Seven offensive players, three defensive players plucked from the portal.

Jared Verse, an unranked high school recruit, signed with Albany in the class of 2019. He was a hot commodity in the TP based on his 24/7 re-rank (0.9400 4-star comparable to a Rivals 5.9 4-star) . Here is a link to an ESPN article. Nate Byham is mentioned in the article.

Jared Verse’s move from Albany to Florida State is a transfer portal success story in the making (espn.com)

FSU currently has 23 scholarship players listed as being entered  into the TP. There are an additional 4 walk-ons who may or may not have been on scholarship during the 2021 season. Of those 23 scholarship players, there are twelve defensive players and eleven offensive players. In total, nine of the offensive and defensive players had a stat.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the All ACC teams.

The  offense revolves around QB play.

FSU now has three scholarship QB’s – Travis, Rodemaker and 2022 Rivals 5.8  4-star A.J. Duffy. Very few 2021 QB backup stats. Milton started four games and saw action in two more in 2021.

Florida State running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production for the first four teams reviewed.

But first, I added a few tweaks to the chart. I have broken out the Rushing stats by RB’s, WR’s, and QB’s rushing stats. I did the same for the Receiving stats – WR’s, TE’s, RB’s & Other. It now looks similar to the defensive stats breakdown.

As long as the offensive/defensive coordinators carryover from one year to the next, you can gain a little insight into the style of offense/defense that team plays. For example, FSU only had eight WR rushes. BC had seven. Clemson had one and Pitt under Whipple had seventeen.

I also added the pass/run percentage (Rounded pass 43% run 57%).

Pitt is now the team with the lowest returning production of the 4 teams reviewed.

Like Boston College, Florida States offensive weakness may be its offense line.

I also added some offensive line stats – tackles for loss allowed (TFL) and (a subset of TFL) sacks. By NCAA definition sacks are classified as a TFL, and a run attempt (and not a pass attempt). This action can lead to overstating run attempts and understating pass attempts.

To shore up FSU’s line, they added two players from the portal. One addition is in his final year of eligibility. The other has one additional year after this season. Those additions are for immediate help. Compare that to the WR’s and RB who are for depth and immediate help with three to four years of eligibility remaining.

The offensive line needs shaping up. Between sacks and “True” tackles for loss, the Oline gave up negative yardage on 10.3% of FSU offense plays. In comparison, Pitt’s Oline gave up negative yardage on (34 sacks and 42 “True” TFL) 76 plays or 7.1% of 1,069 total plays.

From what I have read, Norvell wants a more balanced offense. Currently, FSU is run heavy 57% versus 43% pass. They and you should know that the problem is not as bad as it seems. Add sacks to the mixture moves that mix down to 52% – 48%. Pitt’s problem is the opposite. Add the 34 sacks allowed to pass attempts and instead of the 51% pass – 49% run you will get a 54% – 46% mix.

That wraps up the offensive production lost part of the article. On to the Florida State defense.

FSU had 45 players make a defensive stat. Nine of them were offense players. An additional two were special teams players. That leaves 35 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and those twelve players who did not make at least double digit tackles.

I did add a total line for the 23 players on the chart. You can compare those numbers to the summary totals for all defensive stats.

The defensive line led the way in production lost. They picked up one DE (Verse hopefully, to help replace 2021 portal pickup Jermaine Johnson from Georgia and 2020 portlier Kier Thomas from South Carolina). They also picked up a LB & a DB. The FSU fans say Norvell needs to be bowl eligible (six wins) this year. That is all I have. Next up – NC State.