2023 Up Next – Pitt at Notre Dame

After an exceptionally frustrating 17-21 loss to Wake Forest, Pitt ventures with trepidation into South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

Notre Dame had a bye week. Their coaches are salivating at the opportunity of playing Pitt. They know that at some time(s) during the game, Pitt will self-destruct.

It pains me to write the above.

As I have said numerous times, I use NCAA stats and ESPN game day box scores and ESPN’s year to date team statistics.

Why use ESPN data? Because it is in a format that is easily converted into the charts I present.

Why use the NCAA statistics? To me, it is easy to get around. Besides, as I have said numerous times, the NCAA changes their stats based on gameday review of the hurried (usually 30 minutes after game end) by the official scorekeepers.

I only keep game stats on the ACC QB’s. Last week I had to change track down four different changes. Three were from games played prior to 10/14/21.

Those other sites (including ESPN) do not make those adjustments. All I can say is to take pride in whatever you do.

On to the review starting with the schedule and scoring comparison.

This is the third time I have put in a scoring comparison. Obviously, not everyone reads my articles. The old bugaboo “if you take out “Wofford”, Pitt’s offense scoring would go down while defense scoring would go up.

There is also the possibility of a further drop if you take out the G5 opponents to get to just the P5 opponents. See ND above.

Pitt and ND have only played one common opponent – Louisville.

Continue reading “2023 Up Next – Pitt at Notre Dame”

2023 Up Next – Pitt at Wake Forest

I am in a better football mood than when I wrote the Louisville article. The joy of the 38-21 win took three days to wear off.

Maybe I should stay on the dark side when I write.

Pitt travels to Winston-Salem, NC to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

The kickoff at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium begins coverage at 3:30 p.m. on the ACCN.

I thought Wake’s home stadium was the longest named stadium in college football. But I found the Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium home of the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.

Wake is coming off a 13-30 loss to Virginia Tech.

On to the review, starting with the schedule comparison.

Both teams are not offensive juggernauts. But Pitt is averaging more scoring against P5 teams.

Defensively, both teams are better. Wake is better when comparing P5 teams.

Continue reading “2023 Up Next – Pitt at Wake Forest”

2023 Up Next – Louisville at Pitt

I am back after over a month of writing inactivity.

I did have an article written to post late last week but deleted it due to its tenor. I try not to write that way and sometimes I do get snarky.

A lot have things have changed since my Cincinnati Up Next article.

To me, my predicted eight regular season wins are now up in flames. As a homer I expected better. Pitt’s entire team has problems. Just read any of the POV articles not related to the WVB team.

Louisville, on the other hand, is riding high with a 6-0 record. The fans are ecstatic with their team and  favorite son and new head coach.

Their impressive win over Notre Dame vaulted them to 14’th in the latest AP poll. For ND, it ended a regular season 30 game win streak against ACC teams. The bright spot for ND was the refresher course in counting to eleven paid off.

On to the review, starting with schedule comparison.

I have added the effect of playing a FCS team and scoring comparison of a team against P5 opponents.

Continue reading “2023 Up Next – Louisville at Pitt”

2023 Up Next – Pitt at West Virginia

It is time for the Backyard Brawl

Pitt lost to Cincinnati 21-27. Reed did an excellent postmortem in his MMQB article. Enough said about that debacle.

West Virginia, rebounding from a loss to PSU, hammered the Duquesne Dukes 56-17.

I predicted an 8-4 regular season record. Doubt is creeping into my mind. I still have some hope remembering 2021 and the wakeup call that the Western Michigan loss awakened in the Pitt team.

On to the review starting with the schedule:

This early in the season, statistics do not mean much. But over time, past stats are telling. For example, a Scott Satterfield offense is run heavy. In 2022, his offense was 42% pass / 58% run. Against EKU, it was 42%/58%. Against Pitt, it was 39%/61%.

See the trend? It is in Satterfield’s DNA to run the ball. It was at App State then Louisville and now Cincinnati. That’s just statistical analysis.

Continue reading “2023 Up Next – Pitt at West Virginia”