in Pitt Football, Statistics 996 Words

2023 Up Next – Pitt at Notre Dame

After an exceptionally frustrating 17-21 loss to Wake Forest, Pitt ventures with trepidation into South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

Notre Dame had a bye week. Their coaches are salivating at the opportunity of playing Pitt. They know that at some time(s) during the game, Pitt will self-destruct.

It pains me to write the above.

As I have said numerous times, I use NCAA stats and ESPN game day box scores and ESPN’s year to date team statistics.

Why use ESPN data? Because it is in a format that is easily converted into the charts I present.

Why use the NCAA statistics? To me, it is easy to get around. Besides, as I have said numerous times, the NCAA changes their stats based on gameday review of the hurried (usually 30 minutes after game end) by the official scorekeepers.

I only keep game stats on the ACC QB’s. Last week I had to change track down four different changes. Three were from games played prior to 10/14/21.

Those other sites (including ESPN) do not make those adjustments. All I can say is to take pride in whatever you do.

On to the review starting with the schedule and scoring comparison.

This is the third time I have put in a scoring comparison. Obviously, not everyone reads my articles. The old bugaboo “if you take out “Wofford”, Pitt’s offense scoring would go down while defense scoring would go up.

There is also the possibility of a further drop if you take out the G5 opponents to get to just the P5 opponents. See ND above.

Pitt and ND have only played one common opponent – Louisville.

Moving on to the offense comparison starting with the NCAA offensive chart.

While stats are not predictive, I am expecting a Pitt loss.

The QB comparison chart.

But before I show you the chart, a word on the TP entries. TP entries are highlighted in Green.

I have been tracking ACC TP exits and entrances since its beginning. In ND’s case, I only have this year’s activity. Of the seven players, three are on defense. Two are on offense. There is also the starting Kicker and a backup Punter. The Punter is from Penn. The backup cornerback is from Rhode Island.

Can Sam Hartman get some revenge for the beatdown he received the last time he faced Pitt? I will say yes, he does.

On to the RB’s and WR’s chart.

How many comments will be made before someone mentions that ND bell cow RB Estime has two more rushing yards than Pitt’s total on 100 fewer carriers.

Did you notice Sam Hartman’s receiving stats – minus four yards on ZERO receptions. It occurred on the last play of the Ohio State loss where ND only had ten defensive players on the field.

The ESPN play by play chart for the ND-Ohio State game. Scroll down to the last play of the game.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay/_/gameId/401521330

All sorts of questions on how that play by play was written.

Time to move on to the OLine comparison review.

Pitt finally got their starters straightened out.

ND is showing one more starter than expected. They also show four cases of one more start than game played.

ND has not experienced any OLine injuries if the start info is correct.

As a unit, the ND OLine outperforms Pitt’s. Especially in opening holes for the RB’s.

On to the defensive review starting with the NCAA stats.

While Pitt has better rankings than the offense, it falls short of ND rankings.

What could be interesting is to find a way to easily separate the NCAA data into FBS teams and FCS/G5 teams.

I have already done that with scoring offense/defense. In the QB review, I list the opponent sacks by team. In Pitt’s and ND’s case all sacks allowed where to P5 opponents.

The Pitt defensive players YTD individual stats and performance by group.

The Notre Dame individual YTD stats and performance by defensive group.

My latest chart based on the OLine chart.

Another chart that would be more interesting if I had the time to remove the FCS/G5 opponents.

In the Wake Forest article, I listed Pitt’s defensive TFL’s and sacks. I am not spending the time to find ND’s. I have other things to do.

But we have what we have, and Pitt’s defense is more disruptive.

Moving on to the NCAA Miscellaneous Stats and the Punter/Kicker charts.

POVer’s have discussed the penalty problem.

The Punters and Kickers comparison.

The ND kicker was a great TP pickup.

I have added a NCAA ranking, The individuals (Not Team) Gross punting ranking.

Junko had a terrible punting game against Wake. Pitt’s Net putting dropped from an average of 38.08/punt (#77) on 26 punts to 36.61/punt on 33 punts.

I had a long-winded explanation for what goes into net punting and why it is not always the punters’ fault. But I am tired and have better things to do. Besides the vast majority of readers of the POV have a college education and should be able to figure it out with the help of the headers and a slide rule.

That wraps it up. I expect a Pitt loss.

One last thing. You may be wondering why I kept saying “I have better things to do”. Because I do. This is the last article I will be writing on the 2023 season.

Writing articles for the POV is a hobby. My true love is to be outside doing something.

I have a long list of to-do projects and they are not getting done. As a 72-year-old, I find comparable projects are harder and take longer than when I was 62. That is just life but in my mind, I think I am in my 40’s. Besides fall and spring have the best weather and temperature

96 thoughts on “2023 Up Next – Pitt at Notre Dame”

  1. This is what WP had to say about this article.

    The content provides a detailed analysis of the upcoming Pitt vs Notre Dame game, including offensive and defensive comparisons, player stats, and miscellaneous stats. The use of charts and graphics enhances the presentation.
    To improve the content:
    1. Consider organizing the content into sections or headings to improve readability and navigation.
    2. Add an introduction or overview at the beginning to provide context and engage readers.
    3. Provide more analysis and insights throughout the post to make it more compelling and informative.
    4. Consider expanding on the implications of the statistics and how they might impact the game.
    5. Proofread the article for grammatical errors and consistency in capitalization and formatting.
    Please note that the content is already rich in data and analysis, so these suggestions are meant to enhance the overall readability and engagement of the post.

    Like

  3. Richard – very clever of you to work “slide rule” into this article. I haven’t seen my old slide rule in many moons, but of course the “slide rule” played a big part in the latest awful performance of our Panthers…

    This upcoming game reminds me of when we’d play ND back in the 60s and pre-Majors in the 70s and we had no chance to win. That’s how I feel this week – I hope the ND clock guy is liberal in letting the clock run….

    Thanks for your contributions to the POV. And I hope you enjoy tackling your to-do projects….

    Go Pitt.

    Like

    1. When I wrote the article, I was referring to the engineering slide rule. never a thought about the other slide rule.

      I started out as an engineer. To this day I have no clue on how to use a slide rule. Probably why I ended up with a degree in Economics.

      I have a long-winded explanation of how I became an accountant.

      I’m just on a break. The weather will turn cold, and I will have plenty of time to ponder Pitt and ACC football.

      Liked by 2 people

  4. Doing what a person wants to do at age 72 is certainly well within a reasonable boundary of self interest….being outside (weather permitting) is much healthier than sitting in front of an electronic box and screen…ENJOY!

    I will miss your beyond excellent overviews of Pitt’s weekly football games…but to be honest the upcoming game is probably going to be a head turner…turn my head away from the tv to avoid the on field calamity. There is always next year!

    Liked by 2 people

  5. Thanks Chardo, you could teach word press a thing or two about writing articles. Enjoy the rest of the year and beyond buddy. Good luck at the casino and maybe I’ll meet you down at the ole burn pile?

    Like

    1. Ike – I can always find something to burn. Your more than welcome to stop by.

      I’m going to the casino with some of late wife’s lady friends. After 3 or 4 years, she talked them into going and they loved it. We go three times a year. They consider those trips as their time away from husbands, children, grandchildren. I’m just there for the gambling.

      Chardo

      Like

  7. OT – I heard some of Coach Capel’s radio show this evening. Heard them talking to two players – Ish Leggett and Will Jeffress.

    Ish Leggett sounded high-energy but he also was humble. Said he takes pride in playing tough defense and rebounding. Said he worked a lot this summer on his catch and shoot 3-pointers…

    Will Jeffress was impressive. Talked about how tough last year was – having to sit and watch. Sounded like a coach in talking about the importance of “team” and staying positive. The importance of realizing that not every night will be your night, but no matter what, you root for your teammates…. Just sounded like a very smart and mature young man.

    Coach said he expects the freshmen guards to have ups and downs, but he also expects them to be very good.

    Go Pitt.

    Like

    1. Jeffress also said he’s about 10 pounds heavier than he was last year and he can feel the difference when he plays – like dealing with contact better…

      Go Pitt.

      Like

  8. Are we going to get the back end of the double whammy this week at Notre Dame ?

    Meaning we got whammy’d pretty good at Wake…….i’m guessing as retribution for the famous KP slide and then lopsided win over WF in the Championship game.
    There is no other way to look at the sequence of those most unlikely events to
    end that game.

    Now if one remembers back, the 2nd half of that ACC Championship game, became a public forum on Mental health……because of Hartman and then the ABC game announcers, who just wouldn’t let it go. The game became secondary…at least to them. And to tell you the truth, I got sick of hearing about it and of the many many sideline pics of Hartman.

    So with that said, does Pitt get the back end of the Wake/Hartman double whammy
    this week? Or have we paid for our sins of winning an ACC championship with the Wake fiasco/sham ? Is that enough, Football gods ?

    Don’t know if I can handle anymore of this non-sense. Or Hartman !!!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I remember during the second half of the ACC Championship going bonkers with happiness and breaking out the booze and my not so much of a football fan wife being very confused with the quote, “Why do they keep talking about this young man’s mental health issues? It’s strange to talk about during a football game and a private matter.”

      Liked by 1 person

    2. The guy that made that call was looking for anything to get the ball back to Wake. It is a sham.
      Funny remember when UNC was losing and about to face third and long from the five?
      What happened?
      The refs called a fake illegal substitution on Pitt and UNC made a first down.
      Also, remember this. The ACC officials use targeting to erase 15 yard penalty calls. I learned in vs Miami and now I see it all the time.
      huddle
      Miraculous decision to call targeting when it is not.
      penalty erased.

      You had a great slap shot from the right dot when you could still score with that shot by the way.
      KMAN

      Liked by 1 person

  9. Thanks for another insightful article. Gives me a distraction while watching the game. Enjoy the rest of your projects young man.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. “and a slide rule”

    Quiz:
    1. Who knows what a slide rule is?
    2. Who (still) has a slide rule?
    3. Who knows how to use it?

    Bonus Points: What is the square root of 1356 using a slide rule?

    Super Bonus point: Who spent half the evening in the BYU backfield on Sept 2 1987?

    Like

    1. Ok I’ll play. (i’m a sucker for games) Risk anyone !!!

      Yea I unfortunately know what a slide rule is. (meaning I’m a dinosaur)
      It was a device we used before calculators. Also almost a required item in geekdom. Along with a plastic shirt pocket protector.
      No, I moved out of the parents house a very long time ago. Which is the last place I saw it. (although this is the first time I’ve thought about it for decades)
      I seem to remember, almost like riding a bike. For geeks.

      Bonus Round: Have no idea, but there is a webpage dedicated to that
      specific number. Take a wild guess. 37

      Super Bonus : Tony Siragusa or Mark Spindler

      Like

    2. Super Bonus: Zeke Gadsen. He had 4 1/2 sacks versus the Cougars that night.

      The team had a total of 12 in that win.

      Like

      1. Nate,
        You scooped me on the Zeke and destroy Super Bonus.

        The Bonus was Marc Spindler. I went to that game on the way to taking my parents to Yellowstone. I remember BYU threw the bomb for a score on the opening play and I thought it was going to be a long night with me and my 60,000 screaming new best friends. Sweet revenge after their trip to Pitt stadium.

        I noticed (thank you Richard) the name Spindler in the statistics. So I googled and found out it is indeed Marc’s son. Wouldn’t it be nice if the good legacy folks came to Pitt.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. I remember the game like it was yesterday.

          Also was the only game Nate Heyward started and was never heard from again. He had 10 carries for 64 yards and then Louis Riddick would be the fullback the rest of the season.

          As much as I liked Gottfried, Major Harris should’ve been the QB that night and not Genilla. Mike screwed up recruiting Harris big time.

          Like

    3. I do. I do.

      Actually was able to use a calculator for a freshman chem E class but the batteries died so finished with my trust slide rule.

      H2P!

      Liked by 1 person

  11. Wow!!!!

    I just watched the Charlie Partridge interview at the end of the last thread. All I can say is night and day!

    Like

  12. My father was Carnegie Tech, Westinghouse Engineer who helped me learn some basic stuff on a slide rule for high school chemistry. All long forgotten, but thanks for the memories.

    This game was always chalked up as a loss. Will be better to watch with the sound off.
    Can’t figure out how to sync Hillgrove with the TV.

    Interested in how CV does vs. ND’s D. Maybe C’Bo has the game of his life with PJ in mop up duty for the win. LOL

    Like

  13. I still have my dad’s old slide rule somewhere in a box in the attic. He taught me how to use it in the 6th grade – I took it to school and used it in math class then the teacher said we couldn’t use them.

    This is the same teacher who told me, in front of the class “I’ll bet you don’t last the day without getting sent to the principal’s office.” Of course I said “I’ll take that bet” and she sent me there.

    I called her a cheater.

    When I told my dad what happened he told me “You’re an idiot… but a gutsy kid.” I miss him. He died when I was 13 and sometimes, now that I’m an old guy, it’s hard to remember the details of having him as a father.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Wonderful, touching story CDR.

      Reminds me of the story about President Coolidge, affectionately known as silent Cal. A woman was seated next to him at a dinner. She said, “I made a bet with a friend that I could get you to say three words.” To which he replied, “you lose.”

      H2P!!!

      Liked by 2 people

  14. I’ve been saying this a lot on the blog this year and no one seems to agree: Pitt is too tough to bet on, make a prediction on, ect. I was not surprised in the least that we beat Louisville. I wouldn’t have been surprised if we lost to Wofford.

    Under Nard, Chrsyt, and Wanny, this program has played up and down to the competition, they find ways to win and to lose that are rather uncommon and at times ridiculous like last week, and we just don’t know what Pitt team will show up tomorrow.

    I will make one bold prediction…Phil Jurkovec is going to wear a new wr/te number without a name on the back to try to fool ND. It most likely will not fool anyone. He will throw a pass during a trick play just like Nard tried to do with Jeff George Jr. several years ago pretending George Jr. was Kirk Chistodolou haha. Here’s to hoping this years act of desperation works better.

    Like

    1. You could his name on his back, put strobe lights on his helmet and have the stadium announcer welcome him to the lineup and ND STILL wouldn’t care. He would not make the pass.

      Liked by 1 person

  17. Might as well turn this into a predictions thread also as it is the last article before the Game Day Thread I’ll post tomorrow. Here is mine:

    It maybe close to the current spread but not a complete ND blowout.

    However their defense is very good against the run and awesome against the pass (#3 in PYA & #4 in Pass Eff defense) so we won’t score a ton. Plus they are #5 in Red Zone defense…

    But Hartmann might have a good day.

    ND 38 Pitt 17

    Like

  18. Richard – I hope your labor this Fall is something you love to do and the weather cooperates. You will be missed but not forgotten.

    Go Pitt!

    Liked by 1 person

  19. I don’t see Pitt scoring 17

    Bub will catch what is thrown in his basket but not make any great catches(I admit he’s made one this year) and NONE over the middle as he appears to fear contact

    Gavin won’t be targeted enough

    Konata will try but get thrown around even if he catches a few tough throws

    C’bo will do his thing which isn’t bad but nothing more

    Hammond will let C’bo do his thing (?) , wth Rodney?

    the o-line will be inconsistent in performance for pass pro (not good) and consistent in run blocking (really not good)

    the defense will be exploited in chunks and while I think you can credit their team play for successes, nobody stands out in a positive way enough to hang hope on to really keep us close enough against a big and solid offensive line like ND – rarely does a defense have that anyway without at least an average offense and Cig is sure to make certain that we don’t ever have that

    so even though by the transitive property of Pitt/Looville to Loovill/ND which we win,

    Pitt 9
    ND 35

    question is how many stoopid penalties and stoopid play calls will Duzz and Cig take responsibility for? there will be a ton, the answer is none

    Like

  20. does everyone else have to sign in to WordPress every single time they try to comment?

    and still can’t “lyke” at all either

    f!!!!rustrating, but it does serve to save you all from me 😦

    Like

    1. No. Just once a day. And as of now WP is showing up on my pc with no formatting or frames and no ability to login, like, or reply.

      H2P!!!

      Like

      1. pittdad, damn you! 😉

        ok so signed in again 😦

        prior attempt to post is lost somewhere – maybe a moderator can release it and subject all here to my idiocy

        WP sucks almost as bad as Cignetti 🙂

        Like

    3. Almost always an issue with browser settings. Make sure you aren’t clearing anything when you close your browser. Get a teen to help if you are stuck, or just Google, if you know what to ask.

      Like

  21. Why would I care about Pitt ND when we have a head coach who self sabotages his team by staying with QBs that can’t play and doesn’t bother to drill fundamentals into his team. Plus he hates Pitt fans.

    Like

  23. Pitt will struggle to put up points. I expect Notre Dames D and special teams to score more points than Pitts O. The Irish ☘️ will easily cover.

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Little known data analytics report shows Pitt undefeated in the last 35 years in the next game after a controversial ball placement on a first down play in the 4th quarter coinciding with a frost in Pittsburgh that occurs after October 15th.
    I did all that with a slide rule. 😎

    Liked by 9 people

    1. That’s impressive! It is really hard to solve a matrix of partial differentials with a slide rule.

      Like

    2. If you had dug deeper you would have seen that it was always a bye week. I think the analysis requires the use of a Keuffel & Esser 4081-3 Log Log Decitrig Duplex Slide Rule.

      And, with apologies to tvax1, I now have to log in with each comment on my iPhone. WP is completely nonfunctional on PC.

      H2P!!!

      Like

      1. sorry for passing along the WordPress illness

        I’ve been able to use Jetpack but do not prefer it over the cpu screen and mouse scroll along with search feature in the browser allowing me to locate my idiotic posts more quickly

        Like

  27. I’m actually more worried about injuries than the score. ND is going to pound our front seven.

    My wild guess:
    ND 45 – Pitt 13.

    Go Pitt.

    Like

  29. OK – I have no idea what WordPress is doing.

    It is hold comments in ‘pending’ when there is no reason to and also putting comments in ‘trash’ when, again, no reason to.

    WP keeps wanting me to go to JetPack so maybe that is the next step.

    I’ll try to fix stuff…

    Like

    1. Go to Admin > Settings > Discussion, then set “Before a comment appears” parameters.

      I’m sure you have some words in the “moderation queue” & “Disallowed comments” that you disallow. Make sure it’s not too overly sensitive.

      Like

  31. I want to see some trick plays. If you can’t win, at least let the players have some fun…

    And maybe put the fastest guy on the team in for a couple play. Radical!

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

  32. If Pitt (read Cig) plays aggressively on O and splits carries between C’Bo, Hammond, and Carter, Pitt can rally and carry the day: Pitt 31 ND 24

    If, more likely, Cig reverts to dumb-dumb, chickensh^t football, we get a good spanking on national tv, despite serious heroics from CV: ND 37 Pitt 17

    Looks like we got the wrong Cignetti: James Madison 7-0.

    Like

  34. OT – So Duke is picked in the pre-season poll as the best team in the ACC.

    And since we are Pitt, of course we are lucky enough to have Duke on our schedule not once, but twice — Jan. 9th and Jan. 20th….

    Happy New Year…

    Go Pitt.

    Like

  36. Pitt beat Louisville. Louisville beat Notre Dame. So what is the problem?

    All Pitt has to do is play an error free, disciplined game.

    Yea, it is going to be a Notre Dame beatdown of Pitt. Game will be over probably by the first quarter.

    Like

  40. Not sure how much of the game I will have the strength or patience to watch….

    Cryin Irish 31
    Pitt 10

    H2P!

    ~ “He Hate Me” (formerly BooCity, PA)

    Like

    1. My Guess is the backup Cameron will see some punting action after we see Phil’s shadow tomorrow.

      Like

    3. That’s a good net number. I think we will see our mediocre punt coverage give up a score off of a punt today.

      Like

  45. I’ll go 12 — he’ll probably shank his first effort badly due to nerves, then get benched. As a former soccer player, even in my 50s, you could give me a few shots of Beam and I could probably punt better than that kid now…seeing who was coming after me, the ball would be gone in one step, or less!

    My neighbor is an FSU fan and we talk ACC football once-in-a-while. He asked me today if we were going to fire our coach — gave me heartburn to discuss it…basically said, um, he has five more chances not to disgrace himself and then we’ll see in January.

    Like

    1. That might be pretty close…but watch – if Pitt somehow wins the comments will go nuts.

      But we already had our major upset this season so probably we’ll be 2-6.

      Like

  47. Agree with Nate many posts above that a solid O game played with aggression and using Bart as an integral part of the game plan we have a chance.
    Sammy Hartman, Sammy Hartman can be a head case as seen before…pressure his azz.
    All this happens and the good guys win 20-17.
    I never predict Pitt losses!

    Aside to Major asking for our fastest guy to play today…Shhh! Don’t give it away!

    Like

  48. No way to really know but you CV is a gamer and throws a decent ball at times so expect Pitt to score.

    Pitt 24
    ND 31

    H2P!

    Like

  50. My hope is that CV just survives the game so he can QB in the Syracuse and BC games since IMO they are only chances for additional victories in 23.

    Liked by 2 people

  54. I hate to beat a dead horse, but where are all of Pitt’s linebackers? Did we realize at the start of the season that with a couple of injuries to our starters Pitt would be playing 3 Freshmen linebackers as primary backups? Is that how a (supposed) top tier program is built?

    As far as today’s game, Pitt’s only hope is that they know Hartman, and how to get him off his game. If Pitt can get ahead and force ND into a passing catch up mode they might have a chance. But if ND scores early and Pitt must stop their ground game then good luck, it will be a crushing loss. They will wear down Pitt’s interior DL that has no significant depth like past years. One wonders if the Pitt coaches took the past two years off instead of recruiting..

    Too much must go right for Pitt to win. I predict a 45-10 thrashing..

    Like

  55. ND wins the first set 25-10 (allowing for rounding on the 25). Pitt comes close but drops the second set 25-21 (ditto). Playing by JV rules, ND wins the match.

    H2P!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  57. So I have been meaning to write this for a while.

    There are two main reasons for Pitt’s demise this year, all the others are marginal or explicable. The first is the most aggregious and obvious. Cig with Narduzzi’s approval to chose PJ as QB. Not sure that I remember a worse coaching decision, certainly not one with as devastating result.

    The second reason is the injuries to three starting O-linemen. While I am not a conspiracy theorist, losing your number one guy two years in a row is awfully odd and just plain awful. In any case you can’t have a strong offense without a strong offensive line. When you lose three starters very few teams would succeed and all QB’s will suffer. In Pitt’s case it has devastated the running game an absolute negative to any potential success for Cig’s “offense”.

    The downturn in defensive effectiveness was baked in due to graduation, but has only marginally affected outcome due to the two main reasons, same with game plan an penalties.

    Cig must go, if for nothing else his lack of ability to recognize QB talent and ability.
    Also the guy(s) responsible for keeping our O-line healthy. It just can’t be coincidence or bad luck. Something is wrong. Injuries are certainly a part of the game but games and seasons are won or lost based on O-lines maturing at the right time. This was supposed to be the strength of the team this year, instead an absolute season ruining weakness.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. By the way, kudos to our young and second and third string guys on that O-line that are doing their best to open holes and protect CV. Hopefully they have long and healthy careers.

      Liked by 1 person

Comments are closed.