in Pitt Football 800 Words

2023 Up Next – Cincinnati at Pitt

Both the Pitt Panthers and Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off resounding wins against FCS opponents. How the different wins were perceived are striking.

To some Pitt fans, the Wofford (Southern Conference) win was mixed. Most believed the offense was vanilla. It was. Others are of the opinion that the QB play left a lot to be desired. The Oline needs work. Wofford should have been annihilated.

Now the Bearcats win was what some wanted. A complete beatdown of Eastern Kentucky (ASUN Conference) resulting in a 66-13 win. Show off your offense in a majestic fashion.

But I believe the different head coaches had different agendas.

HC Pat Narduzzi just wanted a win without showing off any new offensive tweaks. But more importantly, playing an injury free game. A side benefit would be player involvement. (74 different Pitt players saw playing time.)

HC Scott Satterfield just wanted to impress the Bearcat faithful with his new offense. It is also possible that he wanted a blowout win to help overcome the angst of replacing Luke Fickell.

Before I go on with my dang statistics, I just want to notify you of some changes to my charts. There are no new charts.

First, it will be a comparison of Pitt’s dang statistics against Cincy’s. Pitt’s stats will either be on the top or the left side of the chart.

The other change is that TP additions will be highlighted in green. This will allow you to get a visual impact of how the TP has impacted most college football teams.

On to the review, starting with an abbreviated schedule:

The results were what everyone expected prior to the games being played.

The offensive review starting with the NCAA statistics:

Nothing much to see here. Two teams that blew out their opponents. With that being true, the higher scoring team should have the better offensive stats.

What is surprising are the sacks and TFL’s allowed. Pitt allowed three TFL’s and one sack. Cincinnati gave up six and two, respectively.

I wonder if Cincy fans are disappointed in their Oline?

The offense revolves around the QB play:

Both FCS opponent had horrible defenses in 2022, EKU was 109’th and Wofford was 99’th in total defense (out of 123 ranked teams).

Emory Jones had a momentous day. Way out performed Jurkovec. But is that because Pitt ran a vanilla offense?

The RB’s and WR’s comparison:

Including all four QB’s both Pitt and Cincy had eight players tote the rock.

Pitt had 13 receivers making a catch with none more than three.

Cincy had 10 receivers make a catch. It is reasonable to assume that Henderson and Smith are the top targets.

Pitt ran six more offensive plays on slightly more than ten minutes of possession than Louisville. Obviously, Pitt’s tempo of play was slower.

The OLine comparison:

As a reminder, the Oline participation includes both offensive and/or special team play.

I rely on the team provided NCAA roster that includes both games started and games played. Both teams were lackadaisical in providing starters.

In Pitt’s case, the NCAA roster did not have either participation or starts for the five starters. I did check the Pitt’s athletic department stats site and confirmed that none of the starters even played.

The Bearcats NCAA roster was also lacking in identifying starters for the Oline but also left off starters on the defense.

I have already mentioned the Cincy TFL/Sack allowed numbers.

On to the defensive review starting with the NCAA statistics:

How did the Cincy defense give up 302 total yards to an FCS team? Eastern Kentucky did have the FCS tenth ranked offensive team in 2022. That was built on being the third ranked passing team and 92’nd ranked rushing team.

The EKU QB returned this season, so I was expecting a passing attack. I also believe their QB developed a fluttering pass after throwing two interceptions. Last season, he threw eight total.

The chart for Pitt defensive players:

Pitt had 20 defensive players make a stat. A total of 33 defensive players saw action on defense or special teams.

As HCPN said in his post-game interview, there were only 36 tackles made. That is an exceptionally small number.

The chart for Cincinnati defensive players:

Cincinnati played 29 players on defense. 27 of them made this chart.

A total of 67 tackles were made.

Both teams seem to play a lot of home-grown talent on defense.

On to the NCAA Miscellaneous stats:

Pitt continues to have a problem with penalties.

The Punters and Kickers:

Both teams have good kickers. Sauls also handles the kickoff duties.

The punters did their job.

Cincinnati uses a different kicker on kickoffs.

That is all I have. I enjoyed the data gathering but hated the writing part.

As for the game, Pitt wins.

91 thoughts on “2023 Up Next – Cincinnati at Pitt”

  1. Thanks … we will see how things go but I expect a Pitt win, especially since the game is at home. I am assuming that our offense will do better against their defense than vice versa. At best, maybe Cincy is able to keep this within 7-10 points. H2P!

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  6. Papa Kante sucks. More for the future. I don’t think he was going to play much but it will definitely hurt his development.

    Tossing

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  7. Thanks Richard. I believe in this instance stats comparisons are not that beneficial. As you noted, two different coach’s agendas.

    If the Cincy sacks and TFLs were first team on first team, I would tweak an ankle or something if I am their QB. It may be a nightmare scenario for their QB against our defense.

    Pitt should win. If Cincy does not clean up their blocking from last week, it could be an easy win. Of course, Pitt football never does anything easy!

    Liked by 1 person

  8. I simply don’t like this game, and I think the rain (if it comes) will hurt us more. I see a very high scoring game, even if it’s sloppy weather. 38-24 Cincy

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  10. Richard Those DANG statistics ..GREAT!

    Cincy will be test for our secondary…I expect Satterfield to have his QB throwing every chance he can get. If we can keep him off balance with a solid pass rush and a few whopperdoozy sacks we will win big, weather permitting.

    On another note the basketball news is terrible. Kante was destined for the bench, however, we saw the development of the twins and Fede last year. His offer sheet speaks one word // Talent.

    https://n.rivals.com/content/athletes/papa-kante-281075?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALNYWxViUN88dXFYCYV9l7any5PikYrOpotrGogCrLyqI2dV_MAvOzOGIYIGmMds8GJXwPLfXw1ig8fjh61OWvs2jl3ktKz536mxP8immG0d5nlLQ0P1RjNkAy8UUlkZp9Y8azz7aR0779NcD65yDLGX9IaBoLprbbqAfWl71PCF&view=pv

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Thanks, Richard. Cincy’s OLine issues are a bit encouraging.

    Seemed to me that Wofford had wide-open receivers on come-back routes — could portend a problem this week.

    I was surprised Pitt is favored by a TD or more. Looks like a FG game to me…

    No game-time rain in latest forecast.

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Who cares about the game time forecast, MM? What are you seeing for the tailgate forecast? And, more importantly, will you be at the tailgate?

      Liked by 2 people

        2. Anxious to see you, John! This is setting up to be a great tailgate! Dignitaries both local and out-of-town. Can’t wait!

          Liked by 2 people

  12. Cinncy has better coaches, players and system than Pitt. They will destroy our secondary. L Ville could have put up 48 on Pitt last year.
    An ugly game Cinncy 38-10

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    1. Cinn lost their top 8 WRs from last season and lost their top RB. RB will be by committee unless someone takes the job – Kiner had a good game last week, but it was EKU. Their leading WR from last week is a FLA Gator transfer, who has had decent stats – but certainly not great…. or as good as leading Cinn WR.

      Their QB’s rating over the course of his career at Florida and AZ State is comparable to Phil’s.

      Their OL is a question mark and they had to bring guys in to fill holes.

      Both the RB and the WR could breakout… but then so could Bub Means or Rodney Hammond.

      They have solid DL and LBs… secondary is a question mark.

      Pitt under Narduzzi – like him or not – doesn’t get trounced that often. The losses are ususally closer than that. And Cinn is no Notre Dame.

      So, Im just not buying the “better than” or “destroy” argument just yet. Nothing we’ve seen so far to suggest that.

      I’m driving up for this and its a night game…. I want Fran to enjoy a victory cigar and make my ride home more pleasant on Sunday. I have Pitt winning this one in close fashion.

      Liked by 7 people

    2. danh72 … wow .. i hope your predictive powers are lacking. if we only score 10 against them, something has gone terribly wrong and it will be a very long season. H2P !

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  14. Pitt with 2 TD’s from Hammonds, a Devonshire punt return and a Williams pick 6.

    Jurkovic does just enough to show the Hoopies nothing…

    Pitt wins 28-27

    H2P!

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  16. The game will probably boil down to whether Pitt’s new DL will be able to apply enough pressure on the Cincy QB, as to make him rush his throws or sack him.
    But definitely get in his mind. And limit them to 3 or 4 TD’s. If he’s good at the quick 1-2 step dropback & quick throws, this could become a track meet and pro style offenses usually lose to Spread offenses in track meets.

    So if Pitt loses, it will be because of a offensive philosophy stubbornness.

    Which won’t be the first time.

    Hope I’m wrong but maybe Cincy 41 Pitt 31

    Let’s Go Pitt !

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  17. This is a tough one to call. Cincy has many transfers and a weaker secondary. Pitt has the advantage of stability of staff and system. My call is Pitt 28-24.

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  18. Oh and Eastern Kentucky was a much better opponent than what Pitt dragged into town for the Rent-A-Win last week.

    EKU was 7-5 last year and returned their QB. And 7 wins in one season was more than Wofford had total since 2020. That being only 5 in 3 seasons.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. Let me see if I have this right. Their QB is faster than a speeding bullet and can bend steel with his bare hands. His running backs and receivers are descended from Mercury (Hermes if you prefer Greek mythology or fancy accessories). He lines up behind the reincarnation of the 7 Blocks of Granite. Their colleagues on the DL are the revenant Purple People Eaters. Does that about cover it?

    Pitt 45 Cincy 44 reversing the dread 2009 result.

    H2P!!!

    Pittdad

    Liked by 2 people

  22. This game falls into the category of “who really knows”? I’d like to think that our program is at the point that we should not lose a game like this at home to arguably the worst team in the Big 12. But any Pitt fan who has great confidence going into Saturday’s game has not paid much attention during the Narduzzi era. I’ll say 31-27 Pitt. But I really have no clue.

    Liked by 1 person

  24. Phil’s fat, our OL and DL stink, Narduzzi’s the worst, bring mask mandates back, vaccines every three months but you still get covid, the world is ending, it’s raining frogs but…

    Pitt wins! H2P

    Liked by 1 person

  25. I agree with all of the above.
    🙃
    Especially Wolfe’s comment regarding the tailgate.
    We may need valet parking for all the dignitaries.

    Liked by 2 people

  26. Who really cares if Pitt wins. Isn’t it all about a real program coming to town?

    Those tomato can Ws are awful, or so I’ve read on here and on the Lair.

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    1. I’m one of those who would like to have all competitive nail biters but it just dawned on me that this comes with a price. That is, when we play two or more cupcakes, we get an extra home game. Comparable opponents mean home and away contracts. We only have six home games this season. Thought I remembered having seven in the past.

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  33. Very surprised people think the rain will hurt Pitt more than Cincy. Satterfield knows all about the Nard Dawg keeping our CB’s on an island. Cincy is going throw long passes often. I hope the man upstairs gives us some rain. Daniel “Tank” Carter, Rodney “Hot Rod” Hammond, the Big Phil Dizzle are mudders and will run the ball down those Bearcats’ throats.

    I’m hoping for a win but I’m not optimist…as a student I suffered through three losses to Cincy with the worst obviously being the botched extra point loss.

    AJ

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  34. AJ – This board loves psychoanalysis. Both teams played really bad teams and had different objectives. We really can’t take anything from either game outside of a first look. They were essentially two scrimmages but yet the board is still trying to project their play onto future opponents.

    Tossing

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  35. This game should be lots of fun for the fans who wanted tougher OOC games. Well, it will be a blast for every PITT fan. The game goes to who wants it more and it may likely be won by the smallest players to take the field tomorrow evening. Better call Saul.

    So tonight, I’ll watch the Latrobe Wildcats play at the Hempfield Spartans live from the very seat I’m sitting in right now. Technology is a good thing right now in my life.

    Clearing my thoughts on Phil, I’m still rooting like crazy for him to be the one who leads PITT to 10 wins or more. Just a little more skeptical right now but hoping I’m wrong.

    Steelers back on my to do list on Sundays, thanks to #8.

    Isn’t Richard amazing. < No question mark there, it wasn’t a question.

    Remembering Fran who gave up his quaint but great little tailgate to allow the POV to be a part of his pre-PITT football games tailgates. My man Fran doesn’t get enough credit, he’s great man and a great friend and to all those who chip in making each and every PITT home game SPEACIAL!

    New Stones song is pretty good. Angry. I’ll see if I can find it.

    ike/iek
    H2P!

    Liked by 9 people

    1. Excellent post, ike.

      I’ve said it before ike, with Kenny it’s like we get a Pitt doubleheader on the weekends now.

      Anything from 2-0 to 0-2 is possible this weekend. 2-0 would be awesome!

      Go Pitt.

      Liked by 2 people

  38. Agreed on Fran Ike! Is the tailgate still at 5A?

    I’ll be back for University of No Classes 9/23 at risk of divorce.

    Big trip is to Notre Dame. If you’ve never been there, I highly recommend it!

    Liked by 3 people

    1. A trip to South Bend is a fantastic experience…I loved it. Problem is that tickets are very hard to come by and advance hotel reservations are an absolute must in order to pay the elevated rates.

      Liked by 1 person

  39. This will be a big test for Pitt’s safeties and offensive line. If they hold up and also contain their qb, Pitt wins.

    PITT 35

    Bearly cats 24

    Grizz

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  40. Cincy is the kind of team we have problems with. One big play (among many that are stopped) results in a go ahead score due to a blown coverage. Cincy will probably have 50 pass plays including many deep throws.
    How do we win? Make the QB fear for his life.

    Liked by 2 people

  42. I think what we’ll see is the qb breaking containment and breaking hearts with big gainers. Just killer plays for a defense, and Cincy’s qb might get some long runs also, lol.

    JoeKnew

    Liked by 1 person

    1. There you go IKE. That’s the spirit. I’ve missed your posts as of late; hopefully I’ll see more now that the season has begun. PITT 30-17. Special K

      Liked by 2 people

  45. I think our run game makes the difference…agree that Duzz held some things back but a track meet isn’t good for our D. Cig slows things down to rest our D and keep their’s on the field by giving Carter, Hampton, and C’Bo ample carries…was impressed by Carter’s quicks last game and Hampton tough as usual.

    Cincy sounds like a big-play team that scores fast, which could play into this approach for Pitt…muscle them and grind them ‘don’ in the fourth quarter, and use play-action to the tight ends when they pull in to stop it. Could be a big point day but hoping Pitt walks away with a 31-21 win. HTP! Matt N.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. If there is one thing Narduzzi teams can do is RUN!

      No worries in this regard.

      Now about that PRODIGAL Quarterback from Gibsonia. That my fellow PittPOVers is something else.

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      1. Meant WAYWARD. However, prodigal might apply if Jurkovec squanders the opportunity he’s been handed.

        Hopefully not.

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  47. I just saw that Caesars Sportsbook has Pitt as a 6.5 point favorite with a 60% win chance.

    Hoping they know their stuff on this one!

    Go Pitt.

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  50. Hey Reed/John, can you update the womens’ volleyball schedule at the bottom of the comments? It still has last year’s schedule showing. Thanks!

    Liked by 1 person

  51. From The Atlantic

    Ranking Week 2’s top 10 college football games: Alabama-Texas or Nebraska-Colorado?

    Cincinnati at Pitt (6:30 p.m. ET, The CW)

    An Old Big East showdown revives the River City Rivalry for the first time since 2012. Pitt leads the all-time series 8-4, but Cincinnati has won four of the past five, including the Bearcats’ memorable 45-44 win in 2009 to clinch a Big East championship. Sadly, the Paddlewheel Trophy is no longer up for grabs, but this is the first game airing as part of The CW’s new deal with the ACC. Both sides looked impressive in opening wins over FCS opponents and are led by journeyman transfer quarterbacks — Emory Jones for Cincinnati, who took home Big 12 offensive player of the week honors in Week 1, and Phil Jurkovec for Pitt.

    H2P!!!

    Pittdad

    Liked by 1 person

  52. #9 Pitt women’s volleyball team takes care of business against #24 Marquette. Pitt swept them, 25-15, 24-13, 25-20. Pitt attacked mostly from the pins with the two freshmen. Stafford had 17 kills and hit 0.516!! Babcock had 9 kills and hit 0.438, also very good!

    Coach Fisher played the starters with no mass substitutions in the third set. Babcock had a good serving run of seven in a row in the second set. In the third set she returned to her service errors again, probably due to tired legs. Pitt dominated on defense with their blocking especially in the first two sets with Jepsen, Monks, and the two freshmen.

    Good to see the freshmen being so effective. Bodes well for a very good season again. Louisville had trouble with Dayton this week. I believe they are overrated. Georgia Tech came in underrated but have gained respect with tough OOC schedule. They may be the team that gives Pitt the bigger challenge this year in the ACC.

    I watched UNC vs. WVU for as long as I could take it in volleyball. WVU is horrible. UNC would be a problem if they played women’s football. They have hefty, heavy hitters. Pitt will have sore arms after the match with them due to the blocks but should handle them easily.

    Liked by 4 people

      1. Yes, she is. She had a rougher match against Loyola, though.

        Overall, all of our freshmen are playing well at the college level! The freshman setter, the number one recruit out of Hawaii, has become our second setter. She has beaten out Akeo.

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  58. Good morning Pittsburgh – looks like the rain should miss the Cincy game this evening.

    The bearcats have really big & pretty good receivers and Emory Jones is a 5th year veteran 2x transfer who is very athletic, similar to Anthony Richardson who was drafted by the Colts at #2 last April.

    I’ve read that their Oline is questionable, but our Dline was not exactly getting a rush against Wofford without blitzing.

    Satterfield seems to give Duzz fits – the head to head record is 1 – 1, but Satterfield won convincingly last year and Duzz’s COVID win was a one point squeaker.

    If you like competitive, entertaining FB, you’ll probably see a thriller. If you are a Pitt fan you may want to bring your Pepcid to the game.

    H2P!

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  62. Most of the POV comments have Pitt beating Cincy. I’m just glad to be back in Pittsburgh with Mrs. Erie to watch what should be an entertaining college football game.

    My hope is that we all walk out of Acrisure Stadium with winning smiles on our faces.

    Remember, just two years ago Cincy was in the 4 team playoffs. They have very good players and some of that talent today has tasted that very high level of success.

    Erie Express

    Liked by 1 person

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