2022 WTE Production Lost – NC State

In 2013, the ACC welcomed Pitt and Syracuse into the conference. 2013 was also the first year for Dave Doeren as head coach of the NC State Wolfpack.

In his first ten years, his overall record is 72 – 54. But his record is driven by a 31 – 6 OOC schedule. The Wolfpack has only played six P5 teams in that ten year span (2-4). Like most stats, there are caveats. One year a game against West Virginia was cancelled due to a hurricane. In the Covid season, NC State did not play Notre Dame.

On to the review starting with the 2022 and 2023 schedule.

NCAA 2022 offensive stats:

Not an impressive list of stats.

Why is that? Because as we know, the QB drives the offense, Last year, NC State had four QB’s who started at least 2 games.

Devin Leary started the first six games before he suffered a season ending injury, Jack Chambers, a sixth year 2022 TP from Monmouth started the next three games.

MJ Morris, a true freshman (two starts) and wrapping up the season with two starts by a 2020 recruit-Ben Finley. As we shall see three of these four players have entered the TP.

Doeren’s new OC is Robert Anae. Last year, Anae was the OC at Syracuse and before that was the OC at Virginia. The last QB he coached at Virginia was Brennan Armstrong who is now the anointed starting QB for the Pack.

The following chart shows the Pack’s players who threw at least one pass. It also includes Armstrong’s five year passing/rushing performance at Virginia.

NC State has recruited one QB a year since 2016. With the extra Covid year, the pack could have six recruited scholarship QB’s on the roster. In 2023 they will have two – CJ Morris and ’23 Rivals 5.6 3-star Lex Thomas. Armstrong makes three scholarship QB’s.

In all probability, when Pitt faces NC State next year, the starting QB will be CJ Morris. Anae loves QB’s that can pass and run.

On to the Running Backs and Wide Receivers:

The Pack’s rushing attack was pretty anemic. But knowing Anae’s offense at both Virginia and Syracuse, those numbers are par for the course, unless NC state produces a stud RB like Sean Tucker. Going back to 2019, Anae’s QB has either been first or second in attempts and yards gained. The returning RB’s (three of the top four) can fill the limited role that Anae needs.

The WR’s are on the clock. While they are losing three of their top four, they have another seven who at least caught one pass. They did pickup Clemson WR Decari Collins from the TP and signed a Rivals 5.8 4-start in the 2023 class.

Maybe it was the Oline’s fault.

Was it the fault of the Oline for the non-stellar offense performance. IMO, not for sacks but for true rushing TFL’s (total TFL’s less sacks) 11.1% of adjusted rushing attempts.

Leary was only sacked nine times. The other three were sacked 17 times. The additional sacks were probably due to inexperience.

They did lose three starters to eligibility but do have backups with some starting experience. They also used the TP for a lineman.

That wraps up the offense except for offense TP and recruiting activities.

That wraps up the offense. On to the defense starting with the 2022 NCAA stats.

As bad as the offensive stats were, the defensive stats where the opposite. NC State had a darn good defense.

The following chart lists all defensive players who made at least one defensive stat.

NC State had 39 players make a stat. They lost 13 of them to either eligibility (7), the NFL draft (1) or the TP (5).

Compared to Clemson’s (30%) and Miami (40%), NC State lost 50+% of their production.

NC State (based on starts by group) runs a 3-3-5 defense. The DL line group lost the least production but was also the least productive by stats.

They do return players with starts in the DB groups but will have to have find a new starter in the LB group and hope their backups perform.

The new defense chart. It includes TP activity (both In and Out) and 2023 recruiting.

The pack sure does like their DB’s. They lost five to eligibility and two to the TP. They recruited six in their 2023 recruiting class and picked up a TP entry with three years of eligibility remaining.

The NCAA Miscellaneous Stats:

Another ACC team with a penalty problem.

Kickers and Punters  stats:

Both their starting Kicker and Punter were lost to eligibility.

I was slightly surprised Dunn was not drafted. Excellent range and accuracy. But I read a comment that he had little experience with kickoffs. After NCAA research, I understood why he signed a UDFA contract with the Rams. He did not do kickoffs except onside kicks.

Collin Smith will probably take over the PK role besides doing the kickoffs in 2023. Kaden Noonkester will take over the punting duties. I believe both of them were walk-ons.

Will NC State improve on their 2022 8-4 regular season record. It will be a stretch. They will only go 3-1 in OOC losing to Notre Dame. That means they will need five ACC wins just to get to eight. Their history shows their ACC ceiling is 5 wins.

Just to get to eight, Armstrong will need to be near his 2021 QB numbers. Right now, I do not see the WR arsenal that he had at Virginia. The packs defense should keep the scores close, but I see only eight wins max in their future.

84 thoughts on “2022 WTE Production Lost – NC State

  1. Another solid article, NCST had some good wins last year and no one blew them out. Tough losses to BC and Maryland and a head scratcher vs. Syracuse. They seem to always have Pitt’s number in both sports. Now that we play them every other year it should be very competitive.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. NC State has had Pitt’s number in hoops since entering the ACC and the reason … The Pack clearly cheated to get a lot of those players. Mark Gottfried was found guilty of it and how many times did Dixon finish in second behind Gottfried for a player? It seemed to happen quite often.

      The football loss in 2020 was brutal. I recall bad clock management at the end when trying those sneaks with Pickett to get into the end zone. Snapping the ball with 15-17 seconds left on the play clock.

      Our receiver fell down untouched after making a catch at the Pack 1-yard line in the third quarter and Pitt was stuffed on fourth and goal. Should’ve taken the points. Pitt may have won, 32-30.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. As always a job VERY WELL DONE. (Somebody will say that the schedule for the Wolpack lists 2022 twice…a human mistake and that is why every pencil has an eraser LOL). It is impossible not to notice that the out of conference schedule is a true cakewalk. UCONN, VMI, and Marshall (semi-decent) are not going to set the world on fire. Playing the Domers is a tough game as is a battle with Clemson. If NCST is not able to put a strong offense on the field based on the quality of talent I could easily see them losing 5 or six games.


    1. Thanks – You should have read the article before 7am. I had the NCAA defensive stats chart in twice but no defensive player’s chart. I do have an edit button and was able to correct.
      Good catch on the schedule. Another thing to add to my check list (It’s long).


  3. Richard – excellent article.

    Sometimes it’s hard to believe that NC State is in the same conference as Pitt. I guess we’ll get to know them better going forward…

    Hoping we do better against them in football than our history in BB…

    Go Pitt.


  4. OT – Pitt women’s BB signs a JUCO transfer – Mia Simpson. She’s a 5-8 guard. Averaged 17 points per game in JUCO.

    We need scorers, but will Mia’s scoring prowess translate to the ACC…

    Go Pitt.


  5. Another outstanding article, Richard!

    This Summer tour for the MBB team is a great team building opportunity, and should help Pitt close on its last two scholarships. Does anyone know what the signing date is for TP players to be eligible to play basketball in 2023-24?

    Liked by 1 person

  6. OT – Pitt women BB brings in a 5-9 guard (uh-oh!) from USC (uh-oh!).

    Bella Perkins didn’t play much in her two years at USC. She’s from Virginia.

    Go Pitt.


  7. Off topic: I just noticed that our baseball team was whomped yesterday by WVU 10-0.
    The game was played in Morgantown in front of a crowd of over 4000. As we all know Morgantown has its plusses but it is not Heaven on Earth…so, what attracts good ballplayers to play in the middle of nowhere? No balmy temperatures, no palm trees, Big 12 is good baseball but not the primary reason for recruiting, so so academics— what is the magic sauce?
    We are absolutely pathetic and there just is no other way to say it. Coach Bell has a contract that extends another 5 years….???


    1. Brewton will have time to add strength and as a true freshman he can be developed. A position of need….on the video he appears to have a nose for the ball and good speed.


  8. Neither of the WB team pickups would have started last year. We’re in big trouble right now. Capel courting a couple of team changing players but offering to everyone in the portal….. again!


  9. Just finished watching tapes of Noah Thomason 4 star MAC TP guard visiting Capel today. He can play big time! Would be a huge get for Jeff and Pitt!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Smooth as silk….good floor presence….can go inside/outside….he would be a terrific addition as a veteran player to work with our yung uns.


    2. Disappointing to hear this kid is leaning toward Georgia. Hopefully Capel can sway Noah to Pitt. Tough to take that next step as a program when Pitt could possibly lose a kid to Georgia of all places. NIL is a major problem that our favorite program faces. The SEC and B10 are about to make more money with the new TV contracts kicking in.


  10. An open question from an inquiring mind reading my Pitt Yearbook,
    The Owl. Why was it named the Owl? It changed to Panther Prints in 1981 and is no longer published. If you’re 63 or under you may know the answer. Ed?? Anyone ??


  11. Two of the worst baseball teams in the ACC are scaring off this weekend –

    Pitt is losing 7-1 in the 7th inning.

    Our starting pitcher had an ERA of 6.82 to start the game. Well over 7.00 now…

    Maybe HC Bell will give his ace a scholarship to go along with the 5 year extension he was given.


  12. Dan thanks to Bing AI, the Owl began publication in 1907 when Pitt was known as the Western University of Pennsylvania. The name was chosen because the owl is a symbol of wisdom and knowledge….

    Liked by 1 person

  13. I want everyone to know that the Pirates losing streak is on me! Last weekend I got my wife and tickets to the entire Orioles Bucs series next weekend.

    If anyone is playing the Derby, Angel of Empire is a good choice!
    One of the few PA Breds to ever run in the Derby. Smarty Jones and Mine that Bird, other PA Breds who won.


  14. In volleyball news, two of Pitt’s incoming freshmen were selected to represent the USA in the upcoming U19 Pan Am Cup Games in Puerto Rico. The two players are Blaire Bayless and Olivia Babcock. Both are Outside Hitters. Pitt’s incoming class makes up 1/6th of the team. That is pretty impressive!

    Liked by 3 people

  15. This is a very important article. The ACC is trailing badly in its ability to provide a large revenue stream to members. It fries my brain to see that PSUX is going to raise $700 million to upgrade the erector set called Beaver Stadium. The NITS also have an excellent facility for hockey (and a very good team). The enormous number of alums from the college in the middle of nowhere (MOOO) are generous in their support of athletics as compared to Pitt. We will finally have a running track by 2024….on campus stadium no way….hockey probably never….hey, we can’t even field a decent baseball or softball team.

    When conference realignment comes in the next 5-6 years (depending on TV eyeball $$) I fear that we will be playing Temple, Toledo, Marshall, Western Michigan, and Georgia State…think about it….the disparity in revenue is so large that Pitt will simply not be able to maintain the ability to attract quality athletes to play at a lower level…yes, I am negative, but if you read the PG article it is almost SHOUTING that the ACC has some serious problems.


    Liked by 1 person

    1. Move the VA Hospital to the Heinz VA facility or near the airport and put a 30,000 seat OCS there. The biggest problem in the area is parking so demolish Trees and build a garage with a hockey arena on top. Problem solved.


      Liked by 1 person

      1. 30,000 is way too small for a major college football conference. I do not know the seating capacity of the smallest stadium, however, on a guess it is probably about 40-45,000.

        Pitt will never have a major-level hockey team…and I LOVE HOCKEY and played in the CYO Roller Rink League in Brooklyn….we can barely find funding for Victory Heights let alone bringing in hockey…We are NOT Penn State.


  16. I was rewatching the ACC Championship game last night. Pitt had 3 first round drat picks on the field that night. Does anyone have a count of total draft picks playing for Pitt in that game?


  17. I hear Heather, hearing about a Steeler move to a new stadium, is finally looking at 5 year plan for a near campus stadium. NCS.

    Are you telling me no one before now has ever addressed the problem of the Steelers moving and Acrisure being torn down ?? That would be so typical of Pitt who thinks about today and rarely considers unintended consequences of tomorrow!!


  18. Pitt seems focused on recruiting guards from the TP. They still don’t have that space clogging paint eater that many good teams have. Watching the NCAA tournament, I was surprised at how many good but not great teams still managed to have a paint eater on board. Maybe Capel brings in another foreign player over the summer, but he needs to get one to be successful next year.


  19. By the way, is there any word on where Hugely has landed? Maybe he comes back??


  20. The “experts” apparently aren’t that high on our QB, or maybe our offense in general. Saw this on PSN…

    “DraftKings has set Pitt’s win total in 2023 at 6.5, which is tied for sixth in the ACC with North Carolina State, Syracuse and Duke. Florida State (10), Clemson (9.5), North Carolina (8.5), Louisville (7.5) and Miami (7.5) all have higher projected win totals.”

    I think our offense would not look very imposing, especially to an outsider.

    Go Pitt.


    1. That’s right where we want them to put us. Under-value us and when we play a FL State or Louisville, we’ll surprise them with all the dirty little secrets we keep behind the locked gates of the Southside Practice Facility.

      Go Pitt!

      Liked by 3 people

    2. With all the guys that have left and little knowledge of their replacements their projections are understandable. They always seem to forget Narduzzi’s ACC win/loss record and Pitt’s ability to replace linemen. Hopefully this puts another big chip on their shoulder.

      Liked by 1 person

  21. Pitt kickers killing it the USFL. First, Blewitt last week going 5-5. Now Kessman, so far 2-2 both 50+!

    Hail to Pitt!

    Liked by 3 people

    1. That’s what they are showing off. Hoping to get picked up. Kessman ended up having a great game. Being perfect from 50+ will get some NFL attention. One of the announcers mentioned “NFL take note” after his second 50+ kick.

      Liked by 1 person

    1. I watched a couple innings, down for graduation, field is right across the street from Fiji and you could watch from there but trees obscure some of the view

      was 0-0 with Pitt outhitting them into about the 5th

      must be the Pitt coach did a great job of work with the pitcher/s today


      1. Congrats on the graduation at GT.

        HC Bell rallied his staff nicely after the 11-1 drubbing Friday night. The rubber match with GT is today.

        Liked by 1 person

  22. It will be extremely interesting to see how much weight and muscle has been gained by FF and the twins since the end of last season. Foreign-born players might not have the means or supervision to keep them on track for the development that is essential for their growth and success.


    1. I also hope these guys and Hinson really dedicate themselves to improving physically.

      It is hard work in the gym and weight room and nutritional discipline that can really make the difference for them and Pitt next year.

      Liked by 1 person

  23. The twins went home to the Canary Islands and if I am right what kind of diet and strengthening program will they follow? (The Mediterranean diet is very healthy, but they need a specialized diet (healthy of course) to gain some much-needed weight.

    Is FF in Pittsburgh or Finland? The need for strong oversight of his exercise and strengthening program is extremely important for his future.


  24. Watched the Hudl tapes of Pitt’s 2024 LB commit, Breton. He has good closing speed, reads plays well, and when he tackles the player goes down (none of that nonsense blocking guys to the ground). Looks like a SirVocea clone, without the cool name.

    I think he’ll be on the field quickly, he’s a plug-n-play MLB on a 4-3 defense.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I hope so, looks to me like he’s slow at committing to plays, with lots of shoestring tackles after a couple yards gained. He doesn’t strike me as a heavy hitter. Kind of like Brandon George but completely opposite, who needs to finally have a good year


  25. Saw this in an article on gaining weight and muscle…

    “Truth #1: The ability to put on muscle mass is limited.

    A person’s ability to put on muscle mass is limited by their genetics. Through proper training, good nutrition and adequate rest, a person can maximize their genetic potential, but they cannot exceed their genetic limitations…

    Not only is there a limit to overall muscle mass, but there is also a limit as to how quickly a person can add muscle. Contrary to what some websites and trainers at the gym claim, it is not possible to add 10 pounds of muscle per month. Although numbers are difficult to find, one researcher claims that under ideal circumstances (good genetics, disciplined training and nutrition), a person can add no more than an ounce (28 grams) of muscle a day, which would translate into about two pounds a month. Of course, this gain cannot be sustained month after month for years. The same researcher indicates that the greatest gain in muscle mass he has recorded in an individual in a year is 18 pounds; again, under ideal circumstances and without the use of steroids.

    The bottom line: Respect your limitations and work within them. Work towards strong, healthy muscles that function well rather than big ones.”

    While I fully expect the twins to be stronger, I’ll be shocked if they show up in the fall being all bulked up – my guess is that’s just not in their DNA….

    Go Pitt.


    1. All true but I have seen through personal experience guys put on substantial amounts of muscle when they are in that age range without the use of drugs.


    2. John, I fully agree with you. I do not expect either of the twins to become evenly remotely close in size to Hugley. I am hoping for a weight gain of 10-12 lbs and added strength/stamina. The twins have genetics that dictates their ability to grow bigger and stronger. FF might be able to gain more useful weight and strength given his body profile.
      Coach Capel clearly needs to recruit a player who can stand his ground against some of the Bulls playing in the paint in the ACC.

      Liked by 1 person

    1. Today’s game was a fight for the final spot in the upcoming ACC tournament. Only 2 ACC do not make the tournament. It’s not like Pitt was playing an ACC powerhouse – GT was supposed to be on par with Pitt, yet we lose game 1 via 11-1 score and the final 3rd game or rubber match 15-3.

      The coach is extended through 2028.


  26. My sources tell me Hugley is still hurt bad. He may never play a second for Oklahoma!


  27. I wonder how the Thomason visit went this weekend. Dan, any word on a possible commitment?


    1. He wrote on his visit to Pitt asking what number should he wear if #21 isn’t available. That number is retired at Georgia (Dominique Wilkins) so another sign he is leaning that way?


  28. I have a new article scheduled to go live this evening at 6:00pm.

    It’s been a bad 5 weeks for me culminating in a visit to an orthopedic doctor on Wednesday.


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