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2021 Production Loss – North Carolina

Next up on Pitt’s ACC schedule are the North Carolina (UNC) Tar Heels.

Like the head coach of last week’s review, Mack Brown enters his fourth season at the helm of the Tar Heels. In his second stint at UNC, he is 21 – 17 (14-12 conference, 6-3 OOC, and 1-2 in bowls). His best season was in 2020 where they went 8-4.

What is unusual about North Carolina is that they have two coaches on staff who won national championships. Mack Brown won his in 2005. Gene Chizik, hired this year as the assistant head coach of defense (defensive coordinator), won his in 2010 at Auburn.

UNC’s 2021 results and the 2022 schedule.

North Carolina opens the season in Week “zero” against the Florida State Rattlers. By that schedule arrangement, UNC opens up a second Bye week. That second Bye is preceding the home game against Notre Dame.

Speaking of Notre Dame, they are scheduled to play only four ACC games in 2022. They will play six in 2023. In the Covid year of 2020, ND was originally scheduled to play six ACC teams. The 2024 ND schedule only includes four ACC teams.

Besides UNC, ND will play Syracuse, Clemson, and Boston College. Clemson will also have a bye week. Is it a coincidence or on purpose that the two strongest teams have a bye before ND?

Pitt is not the only team playing a Group of 5 (G5) away game. UNC is playing Appalachian State in Boone, NC. Charming small town in the mountains. Also known as the closest ski resort area near Charlotte.

Here are the Rivals 5.7 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

Brown is known as a recruiter. UNC’s Rivals ranking in his first three true classes #12, #15, #11.

Another two TP entries on Phil Steele’s preseason ACC list. Not surprised with Noah Taylor as he was a second team 2021 All ACC Selection. Gaynor played and started in three games last year. I am assuming he was injured.

UNC has lost 14 players to the TP this cycle. Speaking of the TP, I assumed that the portal entries would slow to a trickle. It has not. To me, it seems like the period between February and the onslaught of spring practices.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the 2021 All ACC teams. I have added a new stat –  Athlon’s 2022 preseason All ACC Conference’s four teams. I do not have Phil Steele’s ALL ACC selections. But a UNC site named the nine players selected.

I doubled checked and both Athlon and Phil Steele do not think as highly of LB Noah Taylor as the voters in the 2021 All ACC selections.

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart.

The Tar Heels QB position has not been settled. Criswell is a Rivals 5.8, 4-star in the class of 2020. Maye is a 5.9, 4-star in 2021. We will find out who starts around the same time we find out if it is Patti or Slovis.

UNC does have a third QB. A 2022 recruit who was not a Rivals rated 5.7 or above.

UNC running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production summary for Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and UNC.

The Tar Heels lost a lot of production especially in the run game. They are high on their three returning RB’s especially British Brooks (9.5 yards/attempt).

I expect whoever becomes the starting QB, he will be a running QB. One of the surprises of the 2021 season was Sam Howell’s rushing yardage. In 2020, he ran for 146 net yards. He had 828 in 2021.

The returning WR’s are solid. Josh Downs is in the running for best WR in the ACC.

What does the Oline stats tell us? I added Pitt allowed sacks and tackles for loss.

Last year, UNC was just horrendous in protecting the QB and opening holes for the RB’s. And they lost three starters. No wonder Howell ran so much. Over ten percent of UNC’s total offensive plays resulted in negative yardage.

They do have two returning starters and four with starting experience, I did not make a note but I believe Tunall ( one start, one game played) was injured and missed most of the season. He is back for this year.

We discussed Louisville QB Malik Cunningham last week. As you are aware, I have been referring to QB rushing yards as “Net rushing yards.” Really, all rushing yards are net of lost yardage. The difference is that there are easily found stats for sacks on a QB while TFL’s on an individual running back are hard to find.

If we compare gross yardage (net yards plus sack yards) and “true” rush carriers (carriers minus sacked), Cunningham only gained 30 more yards than Howell on 18 more carriers. FYI, Pitt held Howell to a net 28 yards on 17 carries. (Gross 59 yards, 5 sacks for minus 31 yards)

That ends my fun with stats lesson for the day. Besides my wordcount needed beefing up.

On to the defensive review.

North Carolina had 40 players make a defensive stat. But five of them were offense players. Three were special teams players. That leaves 32 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and eleven players who did not make at least 10 or more tackles.

The below chart includes 21 players- eight DB’s, five DL’s and eight LB’s making up (and I mean made up) a “10 tackles two deep.” I did not have to lower my goal of ten tackles to make a near “two deep.”

Tomari Fox (DL) is highlighted in bright green. He is/was not injured and out for the season. He has a different problem. He is currently under a NCAA one-year suspension for using a banned substance. I am not sure if he has one more appeal before ii is officially official. His 2021 stats are not included in returning production.

NCAA denies Tar Heel DE Tomari Fox’s appeal of season-long suspension for banned substance use (espn.com)

Returning production looks above ACC normal with only the LB position below average. No wonder UNC snapped up LB Noah Taylor from the TP.

To help put all of the defensive data into perspective, here are the UNC 2021 NCAA defensive stats.

Overall, in my down and dirty grading, UNC’s 2021 defense had a solid D grade. No wonder UNC hired Gene Chizik. Chizik made his bones as a defensive coordinator.

Brown’s recruiting prowess needs to start paying off. The defense needs to make a giant leap forward. I can see seven regular season wins and Pitt is not one of them.

67 thoughts on “2021 Production Loss – North Carolina”

  1. PcF – I only got through the first half with my first cup of coffee.

    I’d say good ole’ Mack is an under performer up to this point in his return to UNC.

    Pitt needs to beat them a few more times before we say the score is even, like maybe a 7 year win streak…

    Well done Richard. You are cutting into Phil Stele’s profit margin.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Agree on all points. Mack gets too much love from the Tobacco Road media.
      Would like to see us beat them this season…. will have to overcome the home cooking that always going on in Chapel Hill.
      And Richard certainly holds his own with Phil.

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  2. The Tarholes schedule is a work of art. The 1st 3 games are gimmies and then the 1st of 2 byes and the opportunity to be totally destroyed by the Domers in the 4th game. Chizik has his work cut out for him.
    Brown is an amazing recruiter and as much as I hate to say it we see the same recruiting abilities in Happy Valley, but the results have been pathetic given the available talent to utilize.
    UNC has a spectacular campus and excellent academics for those who really seek an education, however.
    nothing with the exception of a beating of the Hoopies and Nittany Lions pleases me more than seeing Carolina Blue go down in defeat. H2P!!

    Richard another A++ review

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Yeah, what are those preseason college football books going for these days? Lucky us that we get more information and it’s for free from Richard. I would dole out a few shekels for this info. No I’m not Jewish but I have a friend or two that are.

    Looks like Mr British Brooks could have a couple of his long runs nullified? Oh yes I did….

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Richard – excellent article, thank you.

    I would think even our coach could recruit to UNC. 😊. I mean they have the location, the weather, and I would think everything else a recruit would want…

    Which is why it is such a treat to see the Panthers beat these guys. A top 5 memory for me from last season was seeing Kenny hit Lucas in the pouring rain and then the Panthers hold off the Heels for the OT win…. That was Golden Panthers!

    I will miss playing these guys every year – the losses have been agonizing, but great drama….

    IMHO, they have the better players; we have the tougher players! Here’s to the Heels continuing to both recruit well and lose to Pitt.

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Thanks again Richard!!

    3 out of five starting Heels OL gone, new QB, new WRs…they will need to run the ball early on to give the QB time to get his sea legs. Im hoping the OL doesn’t gel all year.

    Defense will be good, so whomever is our QB will need to be well set by the time we face them in late Oct.

    They will start 3-0 in OOC, and then hosts ND. Could be 3-1 or 4-0 going into VT and Miami games, and I think they will split or lose both of them. Duke game is like playing FCS. So, going into the Pitt game they could be 5-2 or 6-1…

    I think our record at that point will be similar. Will make for a good, low scoring matchup and I’m hoping to go. Hope the refs are from out of town.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. I’ve been grocery shopping. Walked right past their magazine rack three times without checking to see if they had the Phil Steele mag. I don’t make lists when I go to stores and more often than not, I have to go back later.

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  8. Latest recruiting rankings just out by 24/7 has Pitt at 32. Penn State 3
    Clemson 4 Hoopies 23

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  9. Franklin is signing up 4**** left and right, but PSUX never seems to be the cream rising to the top.
    The secret sauce must be the chocolate chip ice cream at The Hub. I do, however, give the Lions one gigantic advantage>>>the experience of a game visit to Happy Valley. The enormous (UGLEEE Stadium)
    filled with over 100,000 inebriated fans screaming like banshees for the home team is probably difficult to overcome compared with a visit to Heinz/Acrisure/Rooney Stadium with 25,000 empty seats and a crowd that is not capable of pumping out the decibel level of the Erector set stadium.

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      1. Penn state also has much higher NIL from boosters. And yes Franklin can hire better quality staff given Nitter revenues. You get what you pay for.

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  10. ACC Insider David Teel of the Richmond Times-Dispatch will file the following ballot this week at ACC Media Days:

    Coastal
    Pitt
    Miami
    UNC
    VT
    UVA
    GT
    Duke

    Atlantic
    Clemson
    NC State
    Wake
    FSU
    Louisville
    BC
    Cuse

    Pitt and Clemson in the Championship game, with the Tigers prevailing. He and others believe their QB will rebound.

    Projects Hartman as POY.
    Preseason All-ACC – Carter Warren, Baldanado, Kancey

    Cuse’s Tucker and BC’s Garwo are his pre-season picks at RB. I like Izzy’s chances.

    Getting close folks…. 46 days.

    Liked by 2 people

  11. I was really enjoying today’s read of the POV until the Pedo recruiting rankings came up. Don’t know how they get so many good players, but I’m convinced the Nitters will continue to be a good team that never wins anything. Richard, you are stellar as usual. As soon as I flush the negative Pedo thoughts, I’ll be okay..

    Liked by 2 people

  12. Another gem, Rich. UNC has so much potential, both with player talent and coaching. I see a 3 team race in the Coastal. And it doesn’t help that both NC and Miami are on the road

    I’m wondering if the Heels relied too much on its overrated QB, and they may be better off this year. Time will tell

    Sent from my iPhone

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    Liked by 1 person

  13. UNC has two good QB’s vying for the #1 spot, just like Pitt.

    Competition is good – Pitt has competition at just about every position this year except TE and punter. Blue Mountain Bart would start for 90% of the P5 teams and we recruited him in nitter valley – that one’s for VoR.

    I wonder if our Aussie punter was watching his countryman win The Open today. If he’s sporting a mullet, you know he was watching.

    Regarding our 2-deep – Ourlads.com has Bub Means as a back-up to Mumpford at WR. Anyone hear if Mr. Means is actually eligible to play since this was his 2nd transfer?

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    1. There was been no ruling yet on Means. He certainly should be eligible since he already transferred and sat year and has the freebie to use.

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  14. Erie

    I wouldn’t put too much credence on a depth chart right now. Players are still getting used to each other as well as the new system

    Also it seems in this age of portal and NIL, eligibility restrictions appeared to be lax. That doesn’t mean Means will play this year but I kind of like his chances

    Sent from my iPhone

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  16. Mack was forced out at Texas. A very good recruiter. But won with a heisman QB. He’s a mediocre coach well past any prime. His success depends on his staff. Overall, very nice guy similar to Johnny. And Majors doesn’t sniff a NC without TD. Again, it’s all about elite players in Offensive Positions. That’s the modern game.

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    1. Every coach needs the talent to win. We never heard about how great of a coach Saban was at Michigan State. It took the LSU job where he can get talented players into remedial courses and hide them to start looking like a stud coach. The resources to win at Bama are even greater than at LSU, which says a whole lot.

      If Mack recruited RGIII and Manziel as QBs instead of as DBs, his career would’ve been so much better.

      Liked by 1 person

    1. I think you are right and he might be the best talent at the postion in P5, with all due respect to Bryce Young. Let’s hope he has a sophomore slump.

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    2. They do have a game at Clemson the week before the regular season final with Pitt. And their rival game with FSu should be tougher than ours with Cuse. So, that final game could be interesting.

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  20. ESPN has an article up on the Grant of Rights (GoR). it is behind a paywall but there is a minute or two of reading before they shut off non-ESPN+ readers. That minute or two read mainly talks about the ACC, from a short explanation of just what is granted, how long and other info.

    For me, it verifies what I had previously read but as time goes on it can/will be challenged with either serious financial gain with a win or serious financial loss with a court loss. Really, the only thing I learned was a $140M buyout (exit) fee. I thought it was around $42M.

    https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/34260876/next-conference-realignment-acc-pac-12-follow-grant-rights

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  21. For the record its being reported that Pitt has in excess of 10,000 group ticket sales for this season. A record for Pitt I believe. It must be the “Narduzzi affect” kicking in.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I think there’s a good possibility that both the WVU and Tennessee games both end up as sellouts. Note: Evidently Pitt has a package group ticket offer out there for $145 that will get you a seat for the WVU, RI and Duke games. I’m guessing there will a boat of tickets for sale for the RI and Duke games from the crowd that just wants to secure a seat for the WVU game.

      Liked by 1 person

    3. My batting average would also be good in the minor leagues. The ACC has had one good team. Perennial powers Miami and FSU have stuck. And NC despite the cheating is only mediocre. Among P5 conferences, it has the worst bowl record over the past ten as well. Pitt isn’t even .500 in bowls.

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  24. I found this on a Tennessee Vols fan blog:

    RDU VOL#14 said:
    It’s Pitt. From what I’ve seen you might be able to buy a ticket and then sit wherever you want.
    That’s my question. Can’t see this sold out. I may go up and scalp one off the street. What are the Vols sections up there?

    Pitt fan response:

    If we lose to the hoopies you can have my tickets.

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    1. That’s funny EE. I don’t think there is any way PITT loses to WVU. Narduzzi is a very good motivator; that D will be borderline rabid come game day. It’s going to be fun.

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    2. I bought may club seat ticket about 3 months ago…wasn’t a lot to choose from and pricey…I took that as a good sign…lot’sa interest. Beat the “eers” and I bet it will get 50k+ butts in seats.

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  25. There were stories last week that the Heinz ketchup bottles would remain at the newly named stadium. NOT.

    Ketchup bottles are being removed this morning, per KDKA.

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  26. ND wants NBC to ante-up $75 mil for the Irish to remain independent and the face of CFB on the Peacock station…article or Outkick/

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  27. Fwiw, I will not miss the tacky ketchup bottles.

    Yes, ND has the leverage right now and while its preference is independence, it can likely make more in the B1G. This would no doubt harm the ACC leverage wise

    But face it, the ACC is primarily a basketball conference as evidenced by brining on Cuse, Pitt and Lville …. all basketball biggies at that time. In fact, UConn was preferred over Pitt at the time

    However it turns out, Pitt FB has just to continue to be the best it could be

    Sent from my iPhone

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  28. Kirk Herbstreit and Rece Davis apparently have picked Pitt to win the Coastal. Phil Steele and David Hale also have Pitt. I don’t like it … wish everyone would pick them 4th again

    Sent from my iPhone

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    Liked by 2 people

  29. And just as I wrote the above, I read that an ESPN betting analyst named Fulgrum advises to bet the the Under on Pitt’s projected win total of 8.5 wins. It is based that the 2 biggest playmakers are gone. So all is well again

    Sent from my iPhone

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  30. PITT will lose to Miami. Carolina will be tight as usual. We have never beaten the Heels in Chapel Hill dating back to Dorsett VS. James BOOM BOOM Betterson in Ton’ys freshman year,

    Liked by 1 person

  32. Smart scheduling by Carolina, plus playing at Georgia State, which Pitt should be doing next with all its players from the Peach State.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Nice pickup on Georgia State. I mentioned the App St away game but totally missed seeing the “at” Georgia State game. Had to double check to see if I missed typed the “@” on GSU. Nope, ESPN has UNC playing GSU in Atlanta.

      The two G5 away games in one year by UNC must be driving those commentors nuts who think Pitt is the only P5 team that plays away games at G5 teams.

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  33. Just got back from a doctor appointment. Stopped at my grocery store to get beer. Checked out the magazine rack. No Phil Steele. There were Athlon’s and Lindy’s. No price on Athlon’s but Lindy’s was $10.99. I bought neither.

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  35. Heinz should be close to capacity for both the Hoopies and Vols thanks to 20k visiting fans. Pitt was well represented in Knoxville. I think at least 12k were there and very vocal. Knoxville was a great small college town. I’m used to 3 -10 million but appreciate Appalachia. I’m from there.

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  37. The ACC could probably offer ND about $50 million a year to come on board. The ACC is a much more academically focused conference, which would appeal to ND. And except for hockey they can easily blend in their minor sports. Maybe the ACC would agree to add ice hockey.

    Also, they may be able to increase their basketball revenue vs. some other conference affiliation, but not sure what the Big 10 would pay. The ACC could then add one more team, and maybe let ND pick a traditional competitor to play every year. When it comes down to it, ND won’t make their decision based on a $10-15 million difference.

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    1. ND would go to the MAC if they offered the most money. It’s all they care about….which is why they stayed independent for years. They could go undefeated in the MAC and schedule 2 top games and still get in the playoff.

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  38. The domers will comfortably wait for a $100 million payday. Time is on their side. And when time runs out, they have a powerful brand and following. They are in the drivers seat of a formula 1 car. Pitt drives a used Chevy Malibu. Heisted from a hooker.

    Liked by 1 person

  42. I don’t get the Carolina love for expansion.

    Its football program is a bigger underachiever than Pitt football and has zero brand.

    Basketball and academics shouldn’t be playing any part in NC’s hype. This is about eyeballs.

    Liked by 1 person

    2. NC is considered a growing TV market and a larger, more ardent fan base. Also it is currently considered a better recruiting area than Western PA

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  43. Roddy Jones and the other analyst on the ACC radio show this afternoon both picked Pitt to win the Coastal, FWIW.

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  44. PITT comes to the ACC… PITT starts to rebuild their football program under Narduzzi.. PITT wins the Coastal div under Narduzzi, PITT wins the ACC Championship outright…. Teams want out of the ACC… PITT is badass.

    Liked by 4 people

  45. Pitt is nothing more than mediocre Ike. Seven win season team that loses its bowl games. Kenny was the only reason why Pitt got ranked in top 15. You won’t see that for another twenty years. You’ve been nardoozled. If you like king Pat so much, I’ll make a special shirt for you that you can wear. Meatball with a crown. If and when I come back for the va tech game, I’m gonna wear a giant meatball on my head. It won’t be edible.

    Liked by 1 person

  46. Breaking News ! – 6 weeks from tonight ; ESPN Gameday ( Corso, Howard & Herbstreit ) will be broadcasting LIVE at ( Acrisure Stadium ) with the frenzied crowd right behind their set – first time at Pitt in 17 years !! ….This is not a happening but an EVENT that gets better by the moment : Backyard Brawl , Labor Day weekend , Rib Fest, National TV Audience to kick off the 2022-23 season – I truly feel this will be the best PITT VS. WVU game ever played ( Offseason recruiting & transfers make the mounties a formidable opponent : great stuff to enjoy wherever you watch it !!!

    Liked by 1 person

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