in Pitt Football 1,121 Words

2021 Production Loss – Louisville

Next up on Pitt’s ACC schedule is Louisville.

Scott Satterfield enters his fourth year directing the Cardinals. In 2019, he was the talk of the ACC. Taking over a prior year 2 – 10 team, he shocked the ACC with an 8 – 5 season. He was named the ACC Coach of the year. The next two years were not as kind: 4 – 7, 6 – 7. Overall, he is 18 – 19 (12 – 14 ACC, 5 – 4, OOC and 1 – 1 Bowls).

Louisville’s 2021 results and the 2022 schedule.

For some strange reason, Louisville scheduled James Madison as this years FCS opponent. In a chain reaction to Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC, James Madison will be transitioning to the FBS Sun Belt conference this year.

Over the prior two seasons, Louisville has been involved in nine one score games. They have lost eight of them (2021 – 1W, 4L, 2020 – 4L).

In comparison, Pitt engaged in seven one score games in the same time period. Pitt is 3 – 4 in those games (2021 – 2W, 2L, 2020 – 1W, 2L).

Why do I mention this? Because when I read or listen to commentors, they usually mention one score games and Louisville record.

Here are the Rivals 5.7 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions.

In my Georgia Tech review, I introduced the Athlon (name(s) in Gold) preseason ACC teams. In the Virginia Tech review, I added Phil Steele’s (if available) teams (a darker light blue). For preseason selections I only color code the names and not any stats. This week brings our first names (three) of incoming TP pickups who have made a preseason all ACC team(s).

Thirteen TP pickups in total. The emphasis was on defense – eight in total. The emphasis was on DB’s with six. Also included are two WR’s, one RB, one DL, one LB and a kicker and long snapper.

Louisville’s 2022 recruiting class is the best of Satterfield’s three true classes. Williams (161) and Mortimer (237) were Rivals 250 members.

Louisville lost 16 players to the TP.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the 2021 All ACC teams. I have added a new stat Athlon’s 2022 preseason All ACC Conference’s four teams. I do not have Phil Steele’s ALL ACC selections. But the Louisville 24/7 site named the ten players selected.

I am a fan of “ALL” selections be they pre, post season and first thru fourth / honorable mention teams. They give me an idea of who was a “star” either actual (post) or potentially (pre) in their conference.

It is the post season accolades that make a player a “superstar.” Last year, Kancey, Addison, and Pickett were “superstars” with their accomplishments and accolades. They were all more than good. I will admit that fourth / HM teams are sometimes rewards for players on winning teams. But sometimes they put a spotlight on “up and comers” (see Addison’s 2020 HM All ACC selection as a true freshman).

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart.

Cunningham may not be Lamar Jackson but he is close in the excitement he creates.. Nearly 3,000 yards passing and 19 touchdowns. In total, 3,972 yards and 39 touchdowns combined net rushing and passing stats.

The problem is that his totals only placed him fifth in combined yardage and fourth in TD’s. Even with the loss of Pickett and Howell, Cunningham is still considered only the fifth best QB in the ACC behind Armstrong, Hartman, Leary, and Van Dyke.

Only Evan Conley and the 5.7, 3-star in the class of 2022 are the only scholarship QB’s.

Tech running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production summary for Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Louisville.

At this time, Louisville has the best overall returning production. But it is all due to the returning rushing attack. Louisville lost three of their top five receivers, including a WR that averaged 29.1 yads per reception. He is with Alabama now. That is why Louisville picked up a potential star WR from the TP.

What does the Oline stats tell us? I added Pitt allowed sacks and tackles for loss.

Only one starter lost but there is a backup with starter experience. They did an excellent job in keeping Cunningham protected. But was it his elusiveness or good blocking? All in all, not a bad returning Oline.

On to the defensive review.

Louisville had 49 players make a defensive stat. But eight of them were offense players. One was a special teams player. That leaves 40 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and 18 players who did not make at least 10 or more tackles.

The below chart includes 22 players- seven DB’s, five DL’s and ten LB’s making up (and I mean made up) “10 tackles two deep.” I did not have to lower my goal of ten tackles to make a “two deep.”

As  a reminder, bright green means a medical problem. LB Montgomery was injured in the third game of the 21 season. He is back. Which is a good thing for the Cardinals, as they lost their top two LB  tacklers. Extending his production to and additional 10 games would result in 73 tackles.

Overall, Louisville returning production is one of three teams with less than 60% returning production (based on tackles).

I believe the six DB pickups from the TP were for current and future depth. Of the three top returnees, one is in his last year of eligibility and the other two can go pro.

To help put all of the defensive data into perspective, here are the NCAA Louisville stats.

Overall, in my down and dirty grading, I give Louisville’s 2021 defense a C minus.

In the VT review, I asked what NCAA defensive stat in the chart above was different from the rest and why. Only one person responded. The answer is “First Downs Defense.”

The first five in above are “Per Game” averages. The next four are Decimals (Percentages). The last one is a “Total” where Pitt was tied for 99’th. If you divide 279 by 14 the per game average is 19.93. I did have time and the data to put in the ACC rankings. Pitt’s ACC’s ranking for 279 was # 9 but moved to # 5 on a per game basis. What was surprising to me was the teams that finished third and fourth (BC and Syracuse) behind Clemson and NC State.

After I decided to let the FrankCam, FrankCan/Frankcan golf outing article go a day longer, I looked at the NCAA stats for First Downs Defense. Pitt would have been 56’th overall. Took only 20 minutes including a smoke break.

Before I started the Louisville review, I expected a tossup game. I now think it is a Pitt win by more than one score.

173 thoughts on “2021 Production Loss – Louisville”

  1. Slight correction… James Madison is now FBS as a brand new member of the Sun Belt. They have long been FCS power as many of you know, and is coached by HC Curt Cignetti and OC Mike Shanahan

    Louisville QB is a playmaker, more with his feet than his arm … but is dangerous nevertheless. The Ville had some close losses to pretty good teams last year and not to be taken lightly

    Sent from my iPhone

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  2. I apologize. I didn’t complete my sentence above about JMU above. I may be wrong but thought that that they were scheduled to join the Sun Belt before the chain reaction of the teams joining the B12

    Sent from my iPhone

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    1. Thanks, Richard.

      The Louisville game is scary to me. I was glad to see we don’t have them as an annual opponent in the new scheduling – though that whole thing might all be out the window going forward…

      I agree with wwb, close losses and a dangerous QB who can run and pass, spells trouble. Our offense better be clicking that game…

      Go Pitt.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Another well done job Richard–

        John, I agree with you about Louisville. If we get past the 1st 2 games the Louisville game suddenly becomes more important. Both teams will be coming off bye weeks which means most minor injuries will not be a factor. Road game in Louisville (not a very friendly venue). The Cardinals have a turnstile of players leaving and new ones coming in…….hopefully the dust will not be settled and our offense with whomever our QB turns out to will be in high gear. Overlooking Louisville could be a disaster.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. Since James Madison is transitioning to the Sun Belt in the 2022 season, I believe they are ineligible to play in the conference championship or participate in a bowl game if they are eligible (6 wins).

      The 2023 season adds FCS teams Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State to Conference USA. Sam Houston won the FCS Championship game in 2021. Sam Houston State is located in Huntsville, Tx. On Interstate 45. there is a 67-foot statue of Sam Houston. The statue is lit up at night and is quite impressive. One of the many landmarks I enjoy driving by and seeing.

      Jacksonville State was the FCS runner up in 2015. They are best known by beating FSU last year 20-17. That allowed the FSU fans to claim that they didn’t run up their offensive scoring average.

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  5. I’m hearing the old catch phrase “Not so Fast My Friend” refrain right now. The ACC has a very big buy out system in place for any team that just thinks they can walk away scot free.

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    1. It’s simple math. If the ACC Media Rights penalty is $100M – $200M over the next number of years in total, the SEC and big10 yearly payout will cover that and more in one to two years. The expectation is that media rights on the sec and big10 contract will amount to approximately $100M per year under the new deals. What seemed like an insurmountable payout from a few years ago for the ACC, is no longer a detriment to leaving. Short-term pain, long-term gain. Schools can float the penalty to get to the riches. Would be nice to know what the exact penalty is to ACC schools. I just took a guess, but the same math applies.

      Liked by 1 person

      2. I think you are making the assumption that the ACC GoR is only for the ACC media rights payout. From what I have read about the GoR, it is for the departing school’s “Home” media rights in the new conference. So instead of $20+M a year for x years, it can range from $50M (6 home games) to $66.7M for 8 home games.

        Plus, there is a flat $42M just for leaving the conference.

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        1. PcF – Your premise also seems to take for granted that there will still be an ACC if for example, clemson, miami, fsu, unc and virginia leave. If there is no ACC, there is no ACC media rights obligation. Secondly, the media rights obligation would be set by ESPN. If ESPN feels that the ACC is no longer the brand that it contracted with, ESPN can exercise an escape of that agreement with the ACC. Those are two devastating scenarios. ESPN would hold a lot of the cards, especially with scheduling a clempson game against auburn in primetime.

          Maryland and ACC settled for $31.5M 7-8 years ago.

          Even if the number is a $200M bogey, the exiting teams going into the big10 and SEC would make that up after two years off their media rights, once eligible. The ACC GoR expires in 2036, so let’s assume a $25M payment per year for 10 years after they leave in 2 years. That’s a max of $250M or 2.5 years of big10 or sec media rights of $100M per team per year. The new conferences may also pony up some money to help with the lost fees/revenues to sweeten the pot for teams to leave. Easily doable, but definitely short term pain. $200m just doesn’t go as far as it used to!

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          1. Your premise still seems to be that the media rights is based on the ACC/ESPN payments. It is on the new conference(s) media rights. I stick by my $50M to $66.6M per year.

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            1. I don’t think one conference can hold another responsible without that conference acquiescing. I am sure that is not the case as either conference has no standing against the other. I think of it as an employment contract. If I am under contract with Pitt and leave to join Temple, Pitt will sue me. Now, they would name Temple and Temple would tell me to make it go away, but that is how I would envision this. This is why the ACC litigated against Maryland, not the Big10. Under your scenario, the quick workaround is that the big10 and sec could say to the migrating school that they are only entitled to $1M per year for the first 10 years of joining the conference. They would say the deal was negotiated in good faith (both team and conference agreed to it contractually)and the acc would be left holding the bag. Once it goes away, the big and sec could re-write the contract and add those teams to the regular payout. In my scenario, the ACC would know what its GOR is per team and could prove it, thus, the alleged damages.

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              1. Maryland did not sue over GoR. It sued over the ACC exit fee. The ACC as a conference raised the exit fee from $13M to $42M while Maryland was in contact with the Big10. Maryland voted against fee increase. They then sued ACC saying they should only have to pay $13M. They lost case,

                In the meantime, the ACC was withholding fees due Maryland amounting to over $32M at that time. Both Maryland and ACC settled on that amount as the exit fee. You can look at it as a Maryland victory as they didn’t have to pay $42M. Or you can look at it as a Maryland loss as they didn’t pay $13M.

                In media reporting, they do not report on how future fees that Maryland would be due as an ACC member, The NCAA men’s basketball tournament yearly receipts are paid out over a six-year period. That NCAA money is paid to the conference not to individual schools. So, the ACC exit fee from Maryland could be even higher. Or then again, it could be Maryland received a check from the ACC.

                I thought of the $1M per year scenario. What does a school gain? Instead of $20+M per year, they have to live on $1M. In a court case, I believe that would be seen as a workaround to get out of paying going rates.

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  7. college FB has certainly been entertaining in the off-season

    Thanks for all you do for the POV nation Richard!!! When it comes to numbers-you are a WARRIOR!!!

    Liked by 3 people

  8. So if SEC takes 4 to get to 20, who does B10 take to get to 20?
    ND stays independent?
    Maybe they take BC Pitt Miami Stanford Navy Army and VT to form Eastern 8

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    1. I’ve heard several sports analysts and sports talk pundits state that they feel sorry for schools like Pitt, wvcc and Iowa State because they won’t be invited to the top tier conference party.

      Someone on the POV commented they had read that this past week.

      I lost interest years ago with the NBA and just a few years back with MLB and the NFL. I have no interest in watching any of those three sports. I watch the NHL and PGA – only pro sports that interest me.

      If Pitt is going to get left out, let’s go out fighting hard. A tenth NC would be a great way to exit from the “haves”.

      Beating USC for all the marbles would be sweet justice.

      I’m going to enjoy what we have while we have it and hope (🤞🏼) Pitt and the ACC have a plan brewing in the back room somewhere.

      H2P!

      Liked by 5 people

  9. Still don’t see the SEC letting the Big 10 have the exclusive on a coast to coast conference. I thinking the SEC covets ARZ, Oregon, Utah, and Colorado.

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  10. Pitt just doesn’t move the needle regarding tv contracts.

    Hoping that we might still play some of the big dogs on an occasional OOC basis.

    H2P!

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  11. I don’t think you have to move needles, just be located in a state that has a lot of needles. RU and MD don’t have large fan bases, but they are located in states with decent populations, which is why they are in the Big 10 today. I would not be surprised to see Pitt the n the SEC someday, just to give the SEC a presence in the nation’s fourth most populous state.

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  12. These southern schools have rabid fans and many with crazy money. Perhaps there are partners on a buy-out.

    Also, they could be arranging an exit several years from now.

    I know just rumors but for sure there is an inevitability for a super league with the best teams.

    H2P!

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  13. PSN has the Jordan Addison story if someone can post it.
    Can’t from my phone for some reason

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      1. For you younger POVers and a few oldies “ if you make a deal for employment on a new job that has promises attached….get it in writing and have it reviewed by a credible lawyer!!! “
        I promise you it’ll be the best money you’ll ever spend.

        Under ordinary circumstances an employer who wants to take you from your comfy job and offer you new frills and thrills, well dress up those frills. If they’re in writing, they’re real.

        Riley is a snake oil salesman! And that’s the nicest thing I can say about him.

        Liked by 1 person

  14. I guess Addison finally got around to reading his contract. He must have thought there was a $3 million check waiting for him..

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  15. The GOR will go to court. If a sizable number of acc schools defect, espn will tear up the contract and renegotiate. The acc won’t be the acc if Clemson and fsu and NC leave. What schools will replace them.

    And Maryland settled for 60 cents on the dollar for their iron clad exit fee.

    This GOR is contingent on a fully functional and valuable acc. It was not designed to prevent a mass exodus. It was designed in all practicality for Clemson and fsu. They get the most eyeballs by far. That’s why they are so attractive. Check out The athletic article. Very recent. Pitt by comparison has a third of the football eyeballs for TV. WVU actually gets more and va tech.

    Pitt is a dodo right now with about four weeks to live. Thanks Pitt administration for the past 40 years. Irrelevancy and apathy is what we get as fans.

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  16. PcF – another outstanding job with the opponent summary review.

    Pitt FB question – is CB Woods the son of former Pitt player Tony Woods?

    H2P!

    Liked by 1 person

  17. I always thought that the NCAA could penalize colleges who go rogue,and could affect the eligibility of players who break the rules. This enforcement ability alone should be enough to force college football into compliance and should be able to prevent colleges from jumping to another conference for money, which is not in the overall best interest of college athletics. The university Presidents run the NCAA, and cannot be happy with the current state of affairs. They should require the NCAA to approve all TV deals so that they can control the TV incentives to reward conference jumping for monetary purposes.

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  18. It appears the ketchup bottles will be gone from the scoreboard this year at Pitt games as Heinz is not renewing its naming rights sponsorship.

    Can UPMC take over with 2 large injection needles providing ‘defense’ against offensive attacks?

    Sent from my iPhone

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    Liked by 1 person

  19. Acrisure stadium. After some Michigan brokerage firm.

    Heinz was only paying three million per year for rights. I think sofi is paying something like $20 million a year.

    Good luck marketing recruits with that obscure and hard to pronounce name.

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    1. Never bought mustard or Catch Up because of the Steeler Stadium name. “Sure”ly not going to buy anything from a michigan firm because of the new steeler stadium name. I’m grumpy. Ike Field at POV Stadium sounds about right. He has $5M per year to name it that way for many years!

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  21. Again, an incredible lack of foresight by the BOT closing Pitt Stadium without a substitute or a long term plan.

    Pitt BOT lives day to day. There’s little long term planning. Didn’t anyone on the BOT ever anticipate a name change or a Steeler move from Heinz??? Of course not. Pitt let’s events dictate a response rather than have a plan in place. Another strike against Pitt for future conference consideration.

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  22. I am confused. What does the name of the stadium have to do with recruiting? If the stadium was named RATSAFRATZ would a player say>>hmm I love the coaches, the facilities, the campus and the city but I will not play in RATSAFRATZ!!! Future football stadium location depends on city finances, county/state funding and the amount that the Steelers will contribute. Heck, we don’t know at what level of football Pitt will be playing, so hail to RATZAFRATZ!! H2P!

    Liked by 2 people

      1. Not the same issue. Maybe Pitt can relocate to Bakersfield California. My comment was in response to Mr. Lone Star’s post.

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  23. Fellow POVer, so far the “How to create and write a successful blog” event has 28 in-person and 6 Zoom attendees so far. 34 is a pretty good number…

    I’ll be doing a LOT of talking about the POV and you commenters (because you make the blog so great) so it may be fun just to hear what I say about you all.

    Again, it is Thursday evening starting at 7pm for an hour or so.

    Here is the link again if you want to register:

    CLICK HERE to register for the Online class

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Mike DeCourcy (Sporting News) on the FAN this morning suggests we are only a few years away from colleges paying football and basketball players a salary to play.

    It’s been going on under the table for years.

    Not sure I agree but that alone would change the NCAA landscape.
    NIL just adds to the greed!

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    1. Correct. Behind the scenes the Presidents and Athletic Directors are moving towards the NFL model. It won’t be long. That is why Pitt needs to figure a way into the top 45 as a franchise. If not, there will be a spot for them in the second tier because there is a need for content.

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  28. I am posting like crazy today because I am stuck home on a beautiful day while a plumber is fixing problems…hey it’s only $$.
    Pitt picked up another commit from Florida////Lamar Seymour a WR with a great offer sheet. Seymor de-committed from Miami and is slated to be on the 2023 team. Offers from>>PSU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, WVU, Auburn and more……

    Liked by 5 people

  29. So the stadium is being renamed by a Michigan based firm. That could only mean one thing. PITT IS HEADED FOR THE BIG10!!

    Just trying to find a silver lining in this mess. There has to be one, right?

    Liked by 3 people

  30. The stadium is controlled by the city and Steelers
    We are at their mercy
    I like an OCS titled Pitt UPMC stadium

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  31. Pitt should buy the naming rights to Heinz. They would have “their” stadium and could demand having the Pitt script either at midfield or 2 of them at the 25 yrd lines for Pitt and Steelers games.

    Liked by 2 people

      1. Fran, the ketchup bottles are already removed, buy em up and put them at your wonderful estate along the Allegheny River. Instant landmark!

        Liked by 4 people

  34. Pitt is definitely trending in the right direction.

    Is it too late?

    When will the big changes take place, assuming they do?

    Will Nard Dog be poached or will he just finish out and retire as a Pitt man?

    H2P!

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    1. Pitt has no recruits from PA 2023 football recruiting class. PSU has 6 of top 15 , WVU has 3 of top 15 .Please explain perception that Narduzzi can recruit?

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      1. You obviously don’t drink Koolaid like most of these guys on here.

        I do think however some have reverted to Hawaiian Punch, an even more sugary drink that will rot your mind and prevent you from constructive criticism while making you a narduzzi zombie who craves meatballs.

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      2. The ACC championship? Heisman trophy runner-up? Biletnikoff award winner? Two ACC championships? 69, can you remember being a PITT fan at all? I face the fact you just don’t like the man, ok by me.

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      3. Because Narduzzi is getting better players out of state. And most of the best players are on the eastern side of the state. Do you think Pitt is going to out recruit PSU, any Blue Blood or SEC team that infiltrates that area for the best of the best?

        Keep giving me those George and Florida kids. Pitt finally has a plan in place. The question is how long until an administrator decides to ruin it?

        Liked by 1 person

  36. Most college football stadiums have iconic names. Many are names after legendary coaches. Schools market the names. Names are tied to history and tradition. But of course not a Pitt. Boneheads they are.

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    1. Most college programs are not linked to a historic NFL franchise at their practice facility. That is worth more than any superficial name of a stadium. You’re going to have to dig deeper TEX.

      Liked by 2 people

  37. Recruits outside the area could care less about practicing with the underachieving and perennial mediocre Steelers who haven’t done much in 13 years.

    Stadium names in college football mean everything.

    Here’s a suggestion. Visit around 20 games in the south and elsewhere. And then tell me I’m full of it.

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  39. Stadium names mean everything. Lol. Some day Pitt will become a huge state school and move to the sticks and shed the professional city monicker once and for all … some day. Some day. Imagine what would have happened if they moved to Butler instead of Oakland in 1908. Alas … we can dream. What were they thinking, Tex?

    I love Pittsburgh. I love the Pitt in Pittsburgh … …but Heinz was a dumb name, too. It was literally named after a condiment company. Lacked the charm of Three Rivers and Forbes … It’s on Rooney Ave … just call the place Rooney Field and be done with it.

    UPMC should have stepped up with the naming rights though.

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  41. Personally if Pitt was to ever own their own ‘stadium’, I would call the football field part of it Majors Field. You can then tell every recruit the story about John Majors.

    For the basketball court area, I’m not sure. I don’t think there is a coach. There are a few players though. Two in particular.

    The entire facility (MPC) could have a corporate name. That’s an easy $5 million in revenue each year for the next twenty. I’d find a regional sponsor though and not some out of state company. Maybe The Dicks Sporting Goods Center.

    Names do matter. They have meaning. That’s why Pitt is Pitt and not Pittsburgh. Colors matter as well.

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    1. I know that I do not have a reputation for being a critic of what is being posted on the POV. I am
      going to take issue with this NONSENSE about the name of the stadium. A kid who is 17 or 18 years old playing in his high school stadium that holds 5000 spectators (Don’t give me back talk about the stupid Texas money that has built 15,000 plus seat high school walapaloozas)visits the Burg and walks on an NFL playing field and then sees the amazing practice facility with the Pitt/Steelers logo side by side is worried about the name of the stadium. Joe Schmutkiss from Dingleberry South Carolina or Sunburn, Florida says to himself……”Gollly I don’t wanna play at Pitt because the stadium is not named after Chancellor Litchfield……what are you talking about????

      I am concerned that we have a conference to play in and I don’t give a rats a– where our players come from as long as they can produce winning results on the field. Pennsylvania high school football has been in decline for more than a decade and if we have to go below the Mason-Dixon Line to find talent///So WHAT?? Enough of this silly talk (now I feel better getting this goofy discussion off my chest).

      Liked by 6 people

      1. Kids are attracted to history and tradition. Good schools market it. It’s part of the brand. The brand has lasting power. I’m really sorry you don’t believe it. It’s the truth. Ask any Texas or Aggie recruit. They are four stars unlike Pitts two stars who are just happy to get an offer by a pseudo major.

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        1. you MUST be kidding “Kids are attracted to history and tradition.”

          which ones, the ones on Tick Tock or what?

          c’mon, THINK a bit before you spew

          Liked by 2 people

  42. Maybe someday we get our wish and have our very own PITT Stadium (somewhere). ..maybe this new realignment will set the wheels of fruition in motion (if we are a part of a bigger scheme.).. as Jiminy Cricket would sing ” when you wish upon a star…..”

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  43. This excludes big ten and sec schools. But shows why Clemson, fsu, Miami and NC are coveted for football. I think Pitt had 10-12 games where one million viewers tuned in.

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    1. Sorry Isnore99, just came in to refill my water bottle. Saw this needed to be moderated and approved. I then found the original comment and approved it.

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  45. OK, I’m not golfing due to weather so here’s some thoughts:
    1) The million viewer stuff is so misleading it’s not even funny. Anyone with any knowledge or sense would simply disregard.
    2) I’ve read all the stuff about what we don’t bring to the dance and what others do. TV being the biggy. What a load! What does a team like Nebraska bring TV wise. Ya, all those cornfields are TV sets. Now, they hold the record I think for consecutive sellouts, but it just shows you if there is nothing at all going on in that state that’s where they flock to shuck the corn. Come on.
    3) Sure it’s about $, but when even someone like Phil Knight can’t do anything….. well?
    4) The BiG May add markets, but quality football, wow, not so much. Hey, I’ll bet Rutgers gets over a million views each time they play OSU. You really think those sets are there for Rutgers?
    5) Pitt is totally and royalty screwed. The only chance I see is if they make the college playoff this year. PLAYOFFS, lol. Nope, screwed for sure.

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  47. You may disagree with the approach but all these studies, assessments and analysis based on numbers and research conclude that Pitt is sitting around pole position 50 in terms of fanbase and tv viewers.

    So if it comes down to three 18 school conferences, Pitt might be one of the last four in.

    They are sitting on the bubble right now. But I don’t think the big ten would be interested. Not a new market. So they are probably hosed unless the big 12 makes a run for Louisville and Pitt. That makes sense to me.

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      1. The pole position between 40 and 60 is a coin flip. But Pitt does not sit comfortably in the top 40. That matters plenty. Say not?

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  48. I think ACC more our fit than B12. 16 team limit seems best for now for SEC and B10. And ESPN may not want to lose too many viewers (teams) to Fox.

    Liked by 1 person

  49. You are assuming the acc survives. I don’t think so unless the domers join. And they have zero incentive. Far too many brand valuable teams in the acc for either the big ten or sec to take if and when they decide to expand again. Pitt just doesn’t have the cache or brand cash.

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  50. Kine of ironic, isn’t it that many on this site were maligning ND as a bunch of ACC carpetbaggers, and now they are kissing butt hoping that ND will be the savior of the ACC. Funny how USC and UCLA have changed the thinking on this site.

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  51. Domers will do what’s in their best interest economically. As should Pitt. The writing is on the wall. Pitt should be approaching the big 12. I’d team up with Louisville and va tech. I’d also be reaching out to WVU for support.

    Liked by 1 person

  52. Louisville will be a tough out for Pitt. It’s an away game. They have a QB with legs. And they are on par talent wise. And their coach is not fat with a big new contract offering little performance incentive. I see Pitt losing this game in epic fashion. A botched field goal attempt scooped up for a touchdown.

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  53. Tex, I think you have been standing in that Texas heat too much. I agree with Richard that Pitt should win by over a touchdown. The Pitt DEs will cut off that running QB of theirs, and he will get crushed by the interior DL. I’ll be surprised if he lasts the whole game. Running QBs are not going to do well against Pitt this year.

    And look for ND to come on board the ACC along with one other team for balance. Tex, not everyone makes every decision based on money. ND plays many teams, like the service academies, for tradition rather than payday. You just can’t accept that college sports are about more than just the money.

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  60. Hey VoR, you would think that anyone who has consistently been a leading vocalist of the failures by PITT and more specifically Heather would be feeling a little silly by now but NO! Sticking with the idea fraught with the incompetence of Heather and Narduzzi looks like another Alamo except this time there will be no coming back of Texas.

    Speaking of Texas, now there’s a football program that cannot get out of their own way. But we got to hear how PITT sucks each and every minute of each and every day. 😦

    Liked by 3 people

    1. hey, knowing that Pitt has no chance getting the kids that are enamored with history and tradition, it’s a wonder they get anyone, I mean all they have left to pick from is EVERY SINGLE KID IN THE ENTIRE FRIGGIN’ WORLD

      sorry, that one will stick with me for a while

      #quoteofmostregret
      #prayinforanedit
      #toomuchBalcones

      🙂

      Like

  62. Texas finally has a very good offensive minded coach. I’m not a big fan of his but he is recruiting well and got Archie for his QB. He’s getting his type of players now. The Horns are on track to win multiple NC’s.

    I’m impressed by what I’ve seen so far under the AD and staff.

    And so you know Ike, Texas won the Directors Cup for the second year in a row. Pitt finished 61 out of 65 Power 5 schools. Texas had four times as many points.

    Pitt only has five ranked programs out of 18. The others are all bottom third if not THE bottom of the acc.

    I just don’t see sustained progress at Pitt. Some progress here and there and then regression elsewhere.

    Pitt just isn’t consistently good in anything besides three sports. Two of them have great coaches. One of them is in a talent hotbed.

    Truth hurts.

    Like

    1. Dark Sark will perform up to what he did at USC and no more…

      History repeats itself again and again.

      Sorry buddy!

      H2P!

      Like

  63. ike, Tex has no shame. He should wait to see how Pitt comes out of this football mess before criticizing the administration and result.

    Like

  64. Partridge is good. But here’s the deal, Pitt won’t be landing many if any four or five stars from Florida. And it has nothing to do with Charlie. It has everything to do with Pitt. NIL money just isn’t there.

    Pitt has been successful historically in Florida finding those three stars that didn’t get a Miami or Florida State offer. They should stick with that approach. You don’t need money bags.

    Like

  65. Unless the acc gets the domers, the acc is toast. And the domers will wait it out. They don’t need a conference for the playoffs for at least another 2-4 years.

    While waiting, the big ten and sec will raid at least six teams from the acc when they decide to expand again. The acc will dissolve. Where will that leave Pitt.

    Pitt right now should be teaming up with certain schools like Louisville, Va. tech and possibly Syracuse and entering discussions with the big 12 with the Hoopies as an advocate.

    But maybe they are secretly and I’m not giving Pitt enough credit. But I highly doubt they are since it’s Pitts nature to be slow and reactive. Except when it comes to extending boorish and mediocre coaches…see narduzzi and Capel.

    Like

  66. Just heard again yesterday on ACC radio that the cost for any team to leave the ACC is prohibitive…about $300M per school (even ND would have to pay $50M – 100+M). Also was comment from a legal source stating that the GoR agreement is a rock solid, legally binding agreement. You can’t say if X number of teams leave the ACC, there is no ACC because each of the schools is independently bound to the GoR agreement…It does not appear there is a window for a negotiated settlement with any school that wished to leave. We are talking about survival here. What leverage does a team that wants to leave have to negotiate with?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Who will enforce that contract? An acc with 8 remaining teams? You settle out of court for Pennie’s on the dollar. The acc won’t be around in two years. Pitt had better hitch themselves to the big 20. The sec doesn’t want or need them. The big ten doesn’t want or need them. At least with the big 12, a new market opens up and some tantalizing games along the Ohio river develop. Pitt has wasted the past 40 years and deservedly finds itself in this position. I don’t feel sorry for them. The Killer Bees 🐝 started all this.

      Like

  67. If the GoR is so iron-clad, why did the lawyers sign off on it?

    They had to have thought there was going to be more musical chairs on the horizon. I guess the stability of the conference made them all sign. The problem was Swofford accepting such a poor TV deal from ESPN.

    I think the conference sticks around until 2030, then teams will be able to afford to leave. So, Pitt has another decade of stability at least in football with the ACC together as it is now

    I definitely expect an administrator to screw up the program before 2030, as one always does (1938, 1965, 1982, 1989, the entire 90s, 2010, 2011, 2012).

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  68. I’m mulling this move to super conferences full of top tier champion contender teams which have huge fan bases that consistently fill their stadiums and have high tv ratings. I see an inconsistency here. Let me know if I’m missing something, Using the big10 as an example does this mean that Indiana, Purdue, Nebraska and possibly 1 or 2 others (eg. Rutgers, Illinois) don’t meet the above standards and wind up outside the big10? Or do they stay and possibly dilute the big 10 product and money compared to say the sec? Trying to make sense of this realignment or even a part of it is enough to make your head hurt!..

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  69. Soccergramps. You raise an interesting point. FWIW, I’ve thought for some time that eventually a super conference will evolve consisting of 12 to 16 of the super elite programs. It would be football only and include just the teams that are capable of vying for a Natty

    The rest of the teams will likely be in conferences aligned geographically. In this scenario, Pitt will have realistic chance of competing in the playoffs… and this would not necessarily be a bad thing

    It will not happen overnight, but maybe sooner than later the way things are happening right now

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

    Like

  70. Funded by the NFL and players should receive salaries and benefits like the highest minor league ballplayers in AAA baseball. Let us not kid ourselves a semi-pro league composed of the Ohio State’s, Alabama’s, A&M’s, Clemson’s, Georgia’s, Michigan’s etc would be a weekly football war that would eliminate the scheduling of humpty dumpties. No more Kent State’s or Arkansas State’s on any schedule. NIL contracts funded by corporate sponsors and MEGA TV $$$. I believe that as sick as this is in my humble opinion it is the future of college football and I hate it! If I want to see the pros play I can watch my LOWLY Jets get bombed every other week or view a great game when Buffalo plays the Patriots or KC takes on Green Bay etc. I firmly believe this will happen within the next 8-10 years.

    Like

    1. I hope they hurry up and get to that end-point….get the professional “college”(using that word loosely) teams out of NCAA FB….let them be the AAA minor league teams for the pros..put it on the back of the NFL…Personally,I would be happy with geographically aligned conferences with higher academic standards..get it closer to the true meaning of college ball with student-athletes trading their time and abilities for a FREE education….heck, maybe we would see some ball-players becoming physicians, dentists, engineers and lawyers…..

      Liked by 4 people

  71. BigB, while I would tend to agree with you, note that the PIAA just approved an NIL plan allowing PA high schoolers the ability to accept payments for advertisements, jersey sales, appearances, etc.

    This was done to keep the athletes in state. So things are moving in the opposite direction quickly

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I hear ya wwb/wbb….it’s changed from the days were we went to our local high school and played against local rival schools that our Dad’s and Granddad’s competed against to the creation of “all-star” programs (Central Catholic)around the country drawing top athletes away from their hometown teams and now being paid as a high schooler…. I guess if others can market you for a buck then you should be able to get a cut of the money…….makes sense on the surface…when I needed money I went to work…first job was cutting Christmas trees then worked in the mill every summer and Christmas when I was at PITT. and was a bus-boy at the University Club for 2 years……every penny I earned was handed over to PITT for my education…got an education and developed the work ethic.

      Liked by 2 people

  72. There is something fundamentally wrong with what is happening with college sports. I can’t believe that the majority of university presidents would go along with this. Their mission is not to create a minor league system for the NFL. If they think that people will watch a minor league system they should study the USFL. TV revenues will go down at some point as the traditionalists migrate to the other conferences and attempt to maintain college traditions. Others will watch for a while, and then realize that these players are USFL types who are not yet good enough for the NFL. So they will watch the NFL.

    Liked by 1 person

  73. And if players are getting paid then the NFL will eventually relax its draft rules, expand their rosters and practice squads, and then draft and develop these players themselves. If the top 15-20 incoming college players get drafted directly each year, it will be interesting to see how the elite teams stay elite and differentiate themselves from the other conferences’ players. Think about how many ways the NFL can undermine the super conference system. How about a 20 round draft for starters?

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  74. I think the nfl would have strict limits on player draft and bring kids up to play otherwise kids would be injured
    NFL is not a place for the feint of heart

    Like

  75. Hi folks – getting caught up on the topic of the day.

    A number folks – here and in the media – have dismissed the 2016 GoR document crafted by the ACC.
    Its 3.5 pages long and has been reviewed by countless attorneys and the conclusions appear to be that its airtight. One can’ simply dismiss this. Nor can the amount in question to exit be dismissed. Its been calcuated to be in the range of $300M.

    Maryland’s departure occurred in 2014 before the GoR document was crafted and signed. So, any argument that leaving under the GoR could be in the range of the Terps exit isn’t well conceived.

    So, no one ACC school is leaving in the near term.

    In the coming years a sweet spot would be reach where the GoR has amortized to a level which makes a move to a higher revenue conference logical – if offered.

    A more likely near-term scenario is 8 elect to leave at the same time, which of course would require collusion among those schools…. imagine that! No honor among thieves….

    Practically speaking, that would require either parts of the 8 heading toward more logical homes. For instance, a subset of the 5 AAU schools would leave for the B10 while VT, NC State, Clemson, Miami and FSU head for the SEC.

    Imagine a conf call with the SEC commissioner, the B10 commissioner and the desired schools. Could happen.

    Pressed to guess, the ACC’s AAU schools chosen for B10 would probably be UVA, UNC, Duke and GT. Covers desirable TV markets not in the B10’s market.

    Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College & Louisville join WVU and Cinn in the Big12…. rebranded as B12East.
    The Brawl and the River City Rivalry are renewed.

    But I don’t see that happening because university presidents don’t do that kind of stuff, do they?

    Liked by 2 people

    1. The GOR will be challenged in court. Does the acc have standing when half the league exits? All this will be settled out of court for Pennie’s on the dollar. That’s how it works. And Clemson can take a bridge loan and be back in black within two years. Easy decision for me. SEC here I come.

      Like

      1. May, not will Tex.
        But you are right Tex, this is America and everyone is entitled to sue…no matter what their chances are.
        May not make a motion for summary judgment by the ACC before a courtroom is even seen.
        IF someone tests it and gets to court, there’s a really good chance they lose. Lawyers who have seen it indicate it lacks loopholes and is well-written. Crafted to assuage member institution’s concerns about raids and defections.

        If half the league exits, the GoR vaportizes… so whats your point?

        Lets say Clemson wants to go and pays $300million… why would the other schools take less?
        Because the Tigers will pout until their sweet spot is reached? C’mon man.
        Won’t happen this year or next, but keep it up if you must. This isn’t going to happen until there is less time left on the agreement.

        (Addison just made a spectacular back of the shoulder catch on Wake followed by a TD by Izzy. Nail in the coffin score)

        Like

  76. BTW – I picked up a copy of Phile Steele’s magazine for this season.
    If you haven’t looked at his stuff before, he’s a big-time stats guy…. just like our own Pitt-cocks.

    He loves Pitt folks. Ranks them #9 – even after Addison’s departure and has them as his #1 surprise team to make the CFB. I would indeed be surprised if that happened.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Good stuff JoeL, Narduzzi has indeed put PITT and our boys back on the map. I honestly didn’t think “King Pat” would have PITT in this position and this well thought of just yet. (by non PITT fans)

      It’s just a shame that the past PITT fans are still a bit spooled like they are. Time to let it go and enjoy the ride. imo

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Kenny Pickett was THE reason for King Pats success last season. Narduzzi is no Einstein or Tesla. He can’t even hold Johnnys or Jackie’s jock strap. Or even Jocks Jock. He’s a boorish, overpaid and mediocre coach who won’t be able to rely on a Heisman QB this year. And Kenny will start for the Steelers by week 4 and he’ll be the starter for the next 12 years.

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        1. Wait, didn’t you also say King Pat can’t recruit players…. then you said he can’t coach good players, then you said he would never win ten games, then you said blah blah blah… Yo mama, den whacha say? Your record is worse than Texas last year.

          Liked by 1 person

          1. He can’t recruit four stars. His percentage of 5.7 rated or above is around 30 percent each year. It’s clockwork. Bear in mind most top 15 programs have that figure pegged at 50 percent plus.

            Texas will win more games than Pitt this year. I’m so confident that I’ll wager $1000 on booze for a Red Lot 5A tailgate at Frans. Only booze though. 🤠. Balcones for everyone.

            Both son and daughter are now at Texas. It’s a true city school with an on campus stadium that they somehow squeezed in right off a major highway. 100k plus. And no parking. And traffic. Yet fans still come. Sons dorm was a keg roll above the stadium. 100 yards.

            Like

  78. Pitt day on ACCN starts at midnight tonight – Virginia game kicks it off. Nice m1xture of Men’s football, soccer, basketball and baseball. Women’s Lacrosse, volleyball and softball.

    Liked by 3 people

  79. And they spelled Pittsburgh without the “h” on the logo during the Pitt UVA football game replay last night…sheese.

    Like

  81. GoR – abbreviation for Grant of Rights. In these discussions, it is referring to TV broadcasting rights. I could go into a long-winded comment, but I need to get on with my time outside before it gets to hot and humid to do what I want to accomplish.

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  83. There’s a big difference though between Olympics and college. Is the student athlete model dead is the more appropriate question. The Olympics have allowed professionals now for decades. I do believe the student athlete model is dead among the super conferences and soon to be super league. But it will exist at Pitt. I’m frankly indifferent but would like to have Pitt grab the brass ring just once. It’s just not in their nature though.

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  84. Oh yeah, I get that but even the premise of it just stinks. And if you’re a purist, CFB was originally very much like it is now. Schools bought players. I’m not even sure you had to be a student. Lol. At some point universities realized that they could manipulate the model in their favor. The fact players could not earn money off of their name is the most absurd concept to me that to this day I cannot rap my head around.

    If the olympics can give back a medal, the NCAA can give Reggie Bush’s Heisman back.

    Like

  85. Picket won’t start 12 games in his career let alone 12 years. Tribinsky is 5x’s better. Terrible pick.

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  87. Waning moments of Pitt-Wake on right now. Hallett withthe pick six to put the cap on a great night for him and the Panthers. Glad he will be back for one more season.

    Like

  88. … and Tyler Boyd is a no talent Thug … Mitch is cheap and on a two year deal and someone they the Steelers will never throw big money at to keep. Regardless of performance.

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    1. You can comment anytime but, in the past, the POV had an article a week or two before the season opening game. That article was the “official” prediction thread.

      I think I have made a prediction in every game I have reviewed; I am at 6-1 right now.

      Like

    1. Running Home Ike on Tuesday after a stint in DC. Can’t stand this 107 temps everyday here. Need me to bring you anything? Booze, BBQ, Nudie Mags, Rubbers? Haha

      Like

    1. Interesting DL rankings that are posted by Big Game Boomer on twitter:

      Pitt is ranked #18 (3rd in ACC) Clemson is #1 and Florida St is #15

      The hoopies are ranked #14.

      Is anyone concerned about our OL (even though all starters + have returned) and IF Slow-vis is our starting QB?

      Nick Patti may be the best choice to start the season – IMO.

      Go Pitt!

      Like

      1. I saw that tweet. My first question was “who is Big Game Boomer” and “what are his credentials” (background).

        I can’t argue with his Clemson pick as best in the ACC. I believe his FSU pick is based on the hype over TP pickup of Jared Verse from Albany. I don’t understand the WVU pick at #14. Dante Stills only returning starter of note. Maybe because of 3-3-5 defense. But Big Game Boomer can rightfully question my question my background and who I am.

        If you think Slovis is slow, NC State did well with Leary. Leary’s rushing stats 54/ (73) – 2TD’s. Sacked 25 times for (175). And that was with one of the top OL’s in the ACC. I would be ok with either Slovis/Patti as the starter.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. For anyone who cares, psuX was ranked as 25th among the top defensive lines for the coming 2022 season.

        Tennessee was not ranked in the top 50 and only 3 of our regular season opponents were ranked in the DL top 50.

        Miami – Louisville – wvcc

        H2P!

        Like

        1. Our DL is deep with talent.

          Start with the 2-deep at DE:

          Baldondado, Hayes
          Morgan, Alexander

          Fresh legs – Johnson & Okunlola

          The 2-deep at DT:

          AA Kancey, Green
          Bentley, Danielson

          Fresh legs – Donald & Fitzsimmons

          Really good bench guys – Bam Brima and Jules

          I may have missed someone too.

          I’m ready for some FB!

          Liked by 3 people

  94. Patti vs Slovis I really hope that Duzzi has a W I D E open mind when it comes to choosing our starting QB. Slovis has fantastic potential if he can regain his earlier form that was on display at USC. Patti is a gamer and well respected by his teammates. When Patti dove into the end zone against The Spartans he showed me GAMERS GUTS. His injury forced Beville into a terrible situation and the rest is history..

    Obviously, Cignetti has a lot to say about who should be the starter. Opening a season against the Hoopies and an improving Tennessee is quite a test for a new QB……I admit that I am chomping at the bit for the season to start!!

    Like

    1. I trust the coaches to pick the starting QB. I know we’ve had a couple of QB transfers here from the State of California, but Kedon Slovis has a bunch of starts and game experience. I think he’s the heavy favorite to start the season.

      Like

  96. Pittsburgh Sports Now has been commenting on our “under the radar” commits. Maybe we should be saying that we have been locating them on SONAR.

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  97. Was in DC Wednesday
    Best kept secret tourist spot
    Bell tower on PA avenue next to new Waldorf Astoria Hotel
    Free with Park Service guides
    Brother retired EPA HQ next door

    Like

  98. JoeL^^I agree having Erick Hallett back for another season is great. I think he and Brandon Hill are the best safety tandem in the ACC. I hope Hill can reign in his “targeting” tendency before the season starts though.

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  101. So I took Mrs. Erie out for dinner – seemed like a decent place.

    It’s a hick joint – they just played “Take Me Home”. A bunch of long bearded dudes and fat chicks were singing every other word. In other words they were drunk.

    I yelled “Go Pitt” at the end and got quite a few smiles.

    Now they are playing some hick sounding Texas songs.

    Low IQ locale…

    Like

    1. Erie – it was played every night at The Dunvegan in St Andrews every night I was there. Gets the whole place going. 200 yards from the 18th green.

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