2021 Production Loss – Virginia Tech

Next up on Pitt’s ACC schedule is Virginia Tech. I have an affinity for Tech schools. I graduated from a “Tech” school but not as an engineer, an economist.

Brent Pry is the new head coach of the VT Hokies. He is one of the four new ACC head coaches. Only one of the four has previous head coaching experience and he is not the one.

He was born in Altoona, PA. but graduated from a high school in Lexington, Virginia. He spent three years as a graduate assistant at VT.

Virginia Tech’s 2021 results and the 2022 schedule.

The Hokies face a hard stretch in WVU, @UNC, @Pitt, and then Miami.

Here are the Rivals 5.7 and above 2022 commits. Also included are the current Transfer Portal (TP) additions

The 2022 transitional class is actually the best Hokie class since 2019. The six 5.7, 3-stars follows after the 21 class (28 commits) with only one 4-star and zero 5.7, 3-stars and the 20 class (15 commits) with one 4-star and one 5.7. Both of them entered the TP after the 2020 season. The 19 class (22 commits) had seven 4-stars (3 to the TP, 1 medical) and three 5.7’s (2 to the TP).

VT lost 14 players to the TP – Six on offense and 8 on defense. Eight of the 14 players were from either the 2020 or 2021 signing class. The 14 lost players were consistent with the 30 lost over the prior two portal classes.

The TP netted the Hokies two WR’s, two QB’s and a DE. The Temple WR is the best of the lot.

On to the stars identified as NCAA team leaders in selected stats or members of the 2021 All ACC teams. I have added a new stat Athlon’s 2022 preseason All ACC Conference four teams. I do not have Phil Steele’s ALL ACC selections. But a Hokie site named the three VT players selected.

Lots of light blue and pinkish red meaning their gone. The ones remaining made Athlon/Steeles except one. No respect for 2021 HM safety Nasir Peoples.

The  offense revolves around QB play. I have added sacked and yards lost to the QB chart. I also added career stats for the two TP QB additions.

There will be a new starting QB at Virginia Tech. It will probably not be Blumrick who started the bowl game after Burmeister entered the TP. The new starter will almost certainly be Grant Wells the Marshall TP pickup.

The new Hokie coaches see Blumrick being used in the same manner as Virginia used Keytaon Thompson. Both players were recruited as QB’s but they both are better at running or catching the ball then passing it. Like Thompson, Blumrick will line up anywhere on the field including QB at times.

Brown, the ex-Saint Francis (PA.) and South Carolina QB, will be a veteran backup. Bullock is a 2021 recruit. VT did recruit two 5.5, 3-stars in the 2022 class.

Tech running backs and receivers 2021 activity. Also returning production summary for Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech.

If you use returning yards percentage as your guideline, VT has now moved below GT. The Hokies did pickup two WR’s from the portal. A crafty veteran in his last year of eligibility and a (hopefully) promising prospect with four years of eligibility.

Can the Oline stats mitigate the loss of returning production. I added Pitt allowed sacks and tackles for loss.

Three starters gone but they have three returning players with one or more starts. They had a good Oline last year. Two players drafted and a free agent signing. I see a slight regression.

On to the defensive review.

Virginia Tech had 41 players make a defensive stat. But five of them were offense players. One was a special teams player. That leaves 35 defensive players making a stat.

The chart below strips out the non-defensive players and twelve players who did not make at least six or more tackles.

The below chart includes 23 players- eleven DB’s, nine DL’s and three LB’s making up (and I mean made up) “six+ tackles two deep.”  Yep, I lowered the number of tackles to have at least a “two deep.”

Overall, a normal returning production line buoyed by the linebacking group that has all eight players returning. The strength of the 2021 VT team was its defense but, to me, it only rated as a C minus.

I have used this chart since the Tennessee review. It is to put returning production into perspective. But there is one stat used that is different then the other eight. It has been different on all four charts. Tell me which one and why it is immaterial in its current form.

I see at least five probable wins. Another two are tossups. Throw in a rivalry win against Virginia. No way HC Pry matches Justin Fuente’s ten-win first season at VT. Beamer left players for Fuente. Fuente left Pry a few players, but I expect the majority to either lose eligibility, enter the NFL draft, or enter the TP. Pitt wins.

Next – Louisville.