in Pitt Football 820 Words

A Preseason Look at North Carolina

Another sterling preview of Pitt’s nemesis North Carolina by Rich in SC.

This match-up is last of three teams I expect Pitt to lose. If I had to rank them by severity, It is Clemson, North Carolina (UNC) and then Miami.

On to the review. Of course, the schedules.

A big ACC match-up to start the season –  North Carolina (UNC) @ Virginia Tech (VT). The 11/6/21 game against Wake Forest is an Out of Conference (OOC) game. UNC was blessed with a bye before their game against Notre Dame.

What about recruiting?

As usual, the 2019 transition recruiting class was Mack Brown’s low point but he flipped QB Sam Howell from Florida State on the December signing date. Brown has stepped up UNC’s overall recruiting. A solid numerical Rival’s ranking (NNR) of 5.70 and 5.737 up from Larry Fedora’s last two class of 5.650 and 5.643.

It’s not like Fedora downfall at UNC was lousy recruiting, he was a lousy coach (though Pitt fans would disagree with my assessment). But Fedora did not leave the cupboard bare when he got the axe.

Any transfer portal (TP) entries?

Just one and he is a good one from Tennessee.

Based on his 24/7 reranking, Chandler lived up to his Rivals high school 4* ranking. He is the first player Mack Brown has plucked from the TP.

Who are the players to know?

As usual, I start with returning 2020 All ACC selections. With the announcement of the 2021 preseason all ACC 27 member team, I have marked those selections in bold. This is followed by additional names not on the returning list but on the Athlon 2021 preseason selections.

A few notes. TP entry Ty Chandler is on the Athlon list. There are two players with the last name “Fox”. “Toman” a LB and his younger brother DT “Tomari”. 

That wraps up the recruiting, TP entries and names to know portion of my review. On to the player losses.

Who did UNC lose to the NFL?

The loss of Round 2 selection Javonte Williams was unexpected. That loss led to the TP pickup Ty Chandler from the Tennessee fire sale. Chazz Surratt was recruited as a QB. He made the switch to LB and the rest is history. Surratt’s older brother (Sage) was an undrafted free agent WR in the same draft.

By my count, UNC lost 19 players to the TP. This is on top of the 10 players lost after the 2019 season.

The 2020 4-star Ray Rose is one of 25  2020 recruits who entered or left the ACC TP. That number consists of 21 players who left an ACC team. Louisville (5), VT(4) and Boston College (3) lost the most. Another four transferred in with VT taking two (though one is a Rivals ranked walk-on) and Georgia Tech and Louisville one each. The 25 players are 10.6% of the 235 players who either left or entered the ACC thru the TP.

One last thing on UNC – QB snaps.

I should have realized this earlier but I am adding this now.

UNC had 849 total offensive plays while Pitt had 814 offensive plays during the 2020 season. Sam Howell was responsible for 87.48% of UNC’s 357 total pass attempts. His total run/pass attempts of 440 was 51.83% of the 849 total offense plays. Kenny Pickett’ were 78.12% and 50.74% respectively.

If Howell does get injured 2020 Rivals 5.8  4* Jacoby Criswell is the main backup. There is also a 2021 Rivals 5.9 rated 4*. But just because you are a 4* does not mean you are a star. Ask any of the eight Rivals 4*s in the portal.

That wraps it up on the review buy I have a bonus stat to share.

Someone asked for a ranking on ACC QB’s. I already had the NCAA 2021 for ACC passing efficiency rankings. I tweaked that data by adding yards per attempt (Y/A) and yards per completion (Y/C) but without rankings.

The NCAA has requirements for a QB to be ranked. The first requirement is that the QB has to appear in 75% of total team games played and attempt at least one pass. The second requirement is the QB must attempt (over all games the QB played in) an average of 15 passes per game played. 

The second requirement usually cuts only the QB’s on triple option teams. The first is a little trickier especially in the covid 2020 season. The ACC had teams playing 9, 10,11 or 12 games. Not a problem with 12 games where 75% of 12 is 9. The tricky part is a team playing 11 games is that 75% of 11 is 8.25. Hendon Hooker of VT got caught in this requirement. He only played in eight games.

The below chart shows every ACC QB who during the year that was ranked at one time or another. I also color coded any player who is no longer with an ACC team.

Sorry for the long winded explanation but I like to spell out all the details of how stats are developed and how to interpret them. I am not a fan of one-off stats.

139 thoughts on “A Preseason Look at North Carolina”

  2. Something CFB fans tend to overlook about the transferring players is that many times it has little to do with playing time or even football in general.

    A lot of the times it is homesickness, girlfriend trouble, grades, being overwhelmed in a huge school, etc. and not just the playing or lack thereof. Again, the majority of the kids on a roster know they aren’t going to be in the NFL so they look at present circumstances and find a place where they are more comfortable all around (and still get a scholarship).

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Just saw this:

    “Please note the Tuesday media schedule for Pitt football training camp.

    As a reminder, to participate in coverage from Pitt’s football practice facility, all visiting media personnel (reporters, photographers, videographers, etc.) must confirm their vaccination status via the following online form and email…”

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  4. Richard – Thank you for this article. I always learn some things from your articles. 👍

    As usual with QB stats, I have trouble noticing anything but KP’s embarrassingly modest number of TD passes. But I found it interesting that KP threw about the same number of total passes last season as Lawrence, King, and Jurkovec.

    I used to wonder why a team like UNC didn’t do much, much better in football. They are ideally located to recruit from both north and south. (Plus going to classes is optional, which I imagine is an appealing feature to many…😊).

    In this season’s game, I’ll be rooting for Baldonado to completely Baldonado Sam Howell in the first or second series…

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 3 people

    2. Thanks John – I try to put something in every article that informs or explains on something that I find interesting or someone asks about.

      Next article explains how Kenny could have been in top 30% of passing efficiency with just what I consider minor improvements.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. But how does Kenny get there? If so Minor, why so difficult. Could it be with the horse whisperer (aka horses butt) or maybe with KP himself. I’ve found that often the most difficult feet are right before the finish line. What leads you to believe he can finish?

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    1. Interesting. Bet Coach K. and Coach Marion have some interesting conversations about offense…

      Now Pitt needs to add POV Tailgate celebrity Davey Havern! 😊

      Go Pitt.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Excellent addition with EK. Hope he gets paid…would be nice to have him around. Probably already years ahead of Duzz as a CEO. After all, EK is a PITT grad…

      Liked by 1 person

  8. And for Borbs:

    Kraig Urbik has also been hired as a volunteer assistant. Urbik was Kasperowicz’s offensive line coach at Pine-Richland as well as being a former lineman with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

    Liked by 3 people

  9. All volunteer coaching staff!!
    Cutting edge stuff!!
    As they say in the Guinness commercials, “Brilliant”

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      1. Scooter made one heck of a good looking Duke “Blue Devil” a couple of years ago at our Durham tailgate!!! I was so looking forward to him dressing up in his “Smokey the coon dog outfit” in Knoxville but unfortunately, Fran and Scooter will be watching the game on TV while we hold down the fort in General Neyland Stadium.

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        1. Who is this scooter? Sounds like he could give me a serious challenge in a keg stand competition.

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  10. Big Day for our other highly paid HC.

    Five-star Class of 2022 prospect MJ Rice will make a decision about his basketball future on Tuesday. Ranked as the No. 20 player in his class, he is expected to choose among a wide array of options that includes:

    Here is what to know ahead of his decision and where we think he lands.

    The contenders: G League Ignite, Pitt, NC State, Oklahoma State, Kansas

    Known Visits: OSU (June 14), Kansas (June 23), Pitt (August 4), Duke (early 2020)

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    1. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this movie before. But at least we’re shooting for the “stars.”

      Go Pitt.

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      1. Sometimes you need to catch a falling star without your hand blowing off though. Capel needs a mit.

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  11. Speaking of QB stats — Pistol Pete Gonzalez only got significant playing time for one season under Walt Harris. That season, Pistol Pete threw 30 TD passes and only 7 interceptions.

    Now we have an extremely experienced QB returning in KP. Last season he only threw 13 TDs with 9 INTs. For his career he has thrown 39 TDs and 25 INTs.

    Obviously we need a much more productive season out of KP. Hoping he has enough weapons this season to make it happen.

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Sort of shows how much better a Offensive Coordinator…..Walt was….eh.

      Playing with mostly 2 -3 star recruits of the previous regime.

      Kate has had back to back seasons with 13 & 9. So little or no improvement.

      My Hopium level needs boosted……Pitt drains you.

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      1. Walt was pretty darn good…

        I remember him saying one time something like that once we get the ball, we expect to score in 6 or 7 plays. Aaah, the good old days…

        Liked by 1 person

        2. But he had a QB background. A defensive coach or one with a RB background would say 10-12.

          Unless you’re King Pat and it’s three and out or 12 plays and a missed field goal.

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    2. MM, did not realize the stat about Gomzolez. Quite impressive! As far as weapons go, it seems like most of the time PITT is shooting a .22 cal and the better teams have a 30-06 cal.

      Liked by 1 person

    3. That was my first year at Pitt John. And I am scratching my head trying to remember what kind of weapons Pistol Pete had at his disposal? Walt was a passing game genius though , for sure.

      Liked by 1 person

    1. only hope is turnovers and/or Howell has an extremely bad day.

      Their skill players are usually more skilled than ours.

      And Brown is a much better coach. Plus ACC refs.

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      1. I agree. But give NC some credit, they are a very good academic school. Unfortunately, players don’t attend real classes and have tutors take their exams. And what penalty did NC get from the NCAA?

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          1. I used to see Riddick and Jason Mathews in my classes. They were real. The B grades proved it. 🤠

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    1. I’m a vampire. Seriously I work nights. I absolutely love my schedule. When most are at work, I’m at play. When most are at sleep, I’m making coin. Sleep is so overrated.

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    1. Water under the bridge. I know bridges and my insider actually lives under the Tarentum Bridge.

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      1. Use to be a pretty good restaurant there in the old train station. I believe it had a pretty nice bar as well.

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    2. When heather leaves for Sparty and Lou to the Rescue comes in and fires Narduzzi and that MPC is built, consider me genius.

      Tex – genius by Tardis.

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    2. Good to see, good for recruits to see. Pitt needs to take advantage of this free for all.

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      1. At least he doesn’t have to steal some wheels to get around. I just hope whatever KP drives is more reliable than his passing.

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    1. They couldn’t shoot a commercial because he took off as soon as he couldn’t read the lines….that was a joke, kinda.

      Seriously, who would believe the schtick! Best dealership and service in the burgh! You know he hasn’t bought another vehicle and the way this works is that he gets to use the vehicle for free and all he has to do is say how great the dealership and vehicle performs. Standard athlete endorsement. No cash typically. Free use of car contingent upon him saying the same thing every time.

      Good for him. I am a bit jealous.

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  26. Nice to see Pitt add Kasperowicz … now pay him to be a coach. Great guy. Used to give me rides down the hill from Sutherland whenever he’d see me. We had a small group communications night class together and he would hook me up with rides anytime he saw me after that class. Good times.

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        1. I believe the NCAA limits the number of paid positions. I assume those were all filled before EK and his OL coach joined the staff.

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  27. POV Prayer Warriors: Lastrow/Fran’s sister has been hospitalized has been hospitalized with a serious health concern. Let’s circle the wagons!!! Your sister and your family are in our prayers.

    Liked by 6 people

      1. On the list that is stuck to our fridge Fran! It’s a POV hat trick, Ike, Rachel, Frans Sis!! Lift em up!

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  31. Seemed to me we have at least 50 DBs, so I looked it up. In fact, we have 23 DBs listed on the roster (that includes walk-ons).

    Here’s the rundown by position (again, includes walk-ons):

    DBs – 23
    DL — 21
    OL — 18
    WR — 17
    LB — 16
    TE — 8
    RB — 7
    QB — 7

    Seems like we’re heavy on DBs and WRs. On TEs we have some misses on the roster…

    Go Pitt.

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  33. Ron Cook this morning with the “dreaded Pitt optimism” predicting
    10 Pitt wins this year.

    Adding Frans sister to my long daily prayer list which includes Ike, Rick and Rachel and 4 close friends fighting but losing their battle with cancer!

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  34. Prayers for Y’all

    Anyone have any good news this morn?

    Like Tepper stroking Pitt a $100 million check

    Or Heather leaving for Sparty

    Or Whipple retiring to the glue factory

    Or Pitt conducting a feasibility study

    Any positive stretching of the truth is appreciated.

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  35. All the best and many prayers for you and your sister, Lastrow.

    Here’s a positive: Pitt will indeed show up and play UMass on Sept 4th. No one really believes that Ron Cook has turned over a new leaf with Pitt by predicting a 10 win season. On the contrary, he is looking to counter the consensus that he is anti-Pitt while setting himself up to express post season disappointment if SOP shows up, or even if Pitt only gets to a 9 win season. The man is a Pitt hater and Pedo lover as we all know.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. The headline of Cook’s article is misleading. He predicts 8-4 in the article but with the OOC 10 wins can be attainable but won’t be reached because it is Pitt.

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      1. 8 is a reasonable bet. Ten will never happen. That man is a. Can’t say it. But if I ever see him. Well let’s just say he’ll know. And smudzik to.

        Liked by 1 person

  36. What seems evident to me is that, for a school like Pitt, you have to devote recruiting numbers to a position to get results. It’s just too easy to end up with a bunch of “misses” on your roster.

    We’ve seen the positive side of this with the DL and the negative side of this with the OL. Some years we brought in only two OL recruits… 🙁

    Anyway, right now we seem to have several very athletic young DBs, for example:

    Khalil Anderson, Fr., 5’11 and 170
    Rashad Battle, So., 6’3” and 205
    Jahvante Royal, R Fr., 6’3” and 195
    P J O’Brien, Fr., 6’0” and 185

    There are others, too. I find it interesting that we’ve progressed to the point where Marquis Williams (5’9”) might be the only Pitt DB under 5’11”.

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 3 people

  37. First Coaches Poll of the Season out: Pitt is in the notorious ‘Others’ category.

    Others receiving votes: Utah 145, Northwestern 120, Arizona State 90, Auburn 84, Liberty 68, BYU 53, TCU 48, Michigan 30, UCF 29, NC State 27, Boise State 27, Kentucky 20, San José State 18, Army 13, Virginia Tech 9, Missouri 8, UCLA 7, Pittsburgh 6, Tulsa 6, Boston College 6, Ball State 5, Houston 5, SMU 4, Appalachian State 4, West Virginia 4, Arkansas 3, UAB 3, Nevada 2, Air Force 2, Mississippi State 2, Marshall 1, Florida State 1, California 1, Stanford 1

    Notables(because Pitt is paying their HC far more) in the Top 25 include:
    #8 Iowa State
    #10 Cincinnati
    #17 Indiana
    #23 UL-LaFayette
    #24 Coastal Carolina

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      1. Well narduzzis saragin and RPI rankings are consistently in the 50’s. A outside the top 50 rank for a inside the top 30 paid coach. Poor value.

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      1. Everyone related to Narduzzi in some strange way. Like his fifth cousin twice removed who’s a sportswriter for the Chattanooga Press.

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        1. Does Youngstown still have a newspaper ? Maybe Bob Nutthing owns it, since if it’s still in existence, it’s gonna be a money loser .

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  39. Coastal Carolina coach was on my list. He might have been hired by a big program though after last season.

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    1. Offer him six million a year because he’ll laugh at the Atom Counter’s $2 million “prove it” contract because Pitt is a great university that invented the polio vaccine. This coach won’t care about that and nor should he.

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  40. Scrolling down the posts, I see a lot of POVers are hurting due personal illness or that of family and friends. Fran’s sister, Ike, Rick and Rachel, wishing all God’s healing.

    Liked by 8 people

  41. So Pitt has 15 starters back from a 6-5 season, including a QB with 36 starts, most in the ACC. Not to mention a soft schedule and one of the best defenses from last year. Most skill positions with returning players or upgraded depth, as in the TE position. And UL-LaFayette and Liberty are rated ahead of them?

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    1. Coastal Carolina too ! What….they have been playing D1 football for a year or 2. San Jose has had 4 winning seasons in the last 20 years.

      Seems like other D1 HC’s don’t have much respect for Nardstop and therefore Pitt……seems.

      Liked by 1 person

  42. Bernie,
    Zach is hooking us up. Section B. Under overhang so some shade. We’re staying at an apartment in north Knoxville near coffee house and brew pub.

    Liked by 1 person

  44. Get this. Our contract says no drinking or drug use in apartment. No partying allowed. I told my friend that I would make sure to vomit outside and do my drugs in the alley.

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      1. A yuppie couple. I’ll say no more. But I might leave a turd under the pillow for them though.

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  46. Ratings are all due to the public (sports writers) assessment of Narduzzi’s incompetence and record.

    Wish the Pitt Administration had the same view. Maybe after losses to Tennessee and W.Michigan! By the way, the week before WMichigan and their 5th ranked QB plays Pitt,
    they open with Michigan at the Big House!

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    1. Just received my season ticket package from, Pitt. The flyer enclosed does not include the Western Mich. game. Is Pitt the most incompetent athletic program in the US???. Also the tickets were printed in Arkansas .Are there no printers in Pittsburgh Lastly found a Ron Cook article in the PG dated August 3 2014 quoting Mark Nordenberg “Far more students attend games at Heinz Field than we had at Pitt stadium. Now , it is event for our students”. Mr. Cook also goes on praise the demolition of Pitt Stadium and the move to Heniz Field.

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      1. Based on Pitt’s past miscues against MAC teams…..I would consider that an Omen.

        After all Western Mich just played in the Cotton Bowl a few years ago.

        Last time for Pitt in the Cotton Bowl….was 1983.

        Go at your own risk !

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  48. Living in fear of NCAA compliance ramifications is now officially nonsense. In an article published by the NYTimes, the NCAA has decided not to punish Baylor for its sexual assault scandal.

    This infraction is not at all commensurate with extra time at practice or bartering for grades from a professor.

    Let’s hope Heather Lyke makes a public comment on what appears to be another nail in the tight coffin for the NCAA. If compliance is the only skill set in her repertoire, she is now not marketable.

    Those “leaders” on the BOT – how will they explain away their disinterest in Pitt football now?

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  49. And, yes, the NCAA handed down some scholarship restrictions, probation, a show clause on a former coach. Given the far-reaching scandal, all the NCAA has handed out is a slap on the wrist. No post-season ban.

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  50. First thoughts and prayers for Fran’s sister and the other members of the POV extended family who are sick, hurting or otherwise in distress.
    Someone in a recent post (days or possibly a week ago) commented on Kenny Pickett’s seeming unsure of himself on some passes when there was an open window which he saw but appeared uncertain and waited and the window closed leaving him with only a dink and dunk pass. Has anyone else observed this? If this is consistently so might his having to run over to Whipple before every play be a confidence undermining factor? Might he not do better in a more traditional procedure where the plays are signaled in, he calls the play and at the line of scrimmage follows through on it or changes the play based on what he sees in the defense? He then runs the play and slings the ball if the window is open (we hope), no wasted time or much opportunity to overthink what he sees and what is happening. Just do it. I’d really enjoy hearing your thoughts about this. H2P, Soccer Gramps who doesn’t know much about the intricacies of football.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I think you are correct. Also, when a QB is scrambling behind a porous OL they can’t go through the called progressions – so they just try to find anybody. Most passing plays have three targets #1, #2 and lastly #3.

      That #3 is sometimes not ready for the ball to come their way so what happens is they are surprised and drop the pass. We had a real problem with that and when I went back to watch some games you could see that happening.

      And some receivers just had hands of clay on some plays…

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      1. In addition, the third option rarely sees the ball (especially with kate’s propensity to tuck and run early), so they do not give the best effort to be “the option”, because they know they are the last option. This is where a coach that requires discipline, requires the third option to run as hard as the first option, and if not, sit down. It’s a championship culture thing and Pitt doesn’t have that culture. Watch cincinnati’s off field video’s. Fickell has installed a culture of competing with the highest energy on every snap, just not the ones where it is your number.

        Urb told his guys to give 100% for 6 seconds every snap and they could rest for the other 24 seconds. Six seconds max effort….then rest, repeat!

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  51. Thanks for all the prayers for my sister.
    She had a brain hemorrhage but is out of ICU and surgery is not needed at present.
    Long rehab ahead…

    Looking forward to the FRANKCAN CUP and the home opener.
    Miss seeing you guys…
    Tex, I’ll need a shot of your bourbon at the Clemson game. 😎

    Liked by 11 people

  52. Saw this over on the Lair from the Paul Zeise mailbag…

    Mick: I realize that Pitt is the major hometown college football team, but I am wondering why there is somewhat limited coverage of Penn State football?

    Zeise: One thing that is tough is the access given for all these programs right now. Penn State has very limited access available, and so it is hard to really cover the team. Pitt’s access isn’t great, either, but they are right here and at least have players/coaches available each day. We had a full-time reporter in State College for years and we will cover Penn State as much as access dictates. But your anger/frustration is misguided — we want to cover Penn State more but cant do it without access.

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

  53. Pitt’s Women’s Volleyball team is holding their Blue-Gold scrimmage at the Fitzgerald Field house at 1:00 PM this Saturday, 8/14/2021. Admission is free but masks are mandatory. The doors open at noon.

    The scrimmage should be very interesting. Pitt should be able to split the squad and have very good players on both sides of the net. Pitt only has one experienced libero so that will be the only weakness on one side of the net. It will the first time to see the transfers and the new recruits in action. There appears to be no opportunity to tune in via the Internet. What a missed opportunity by the ACC digital network!

    Liked by 1 person

  54. Reed, thank you for your affirmation. I appreciate your next point regarding the porous offensive line, the scrambling quarterback and the not ready #3 receiver. How could that kid be not ready for a chance at what could be his play of the game?! Oh well we are talking about 18-23 year olds. Kids, yeesh!

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  55. Richard & Reed – thanks for your time that you put into these articles. It took me a few days to get completely through the article – my business is consuming my time right now and I have to strike a perfect balance with caring for Mrs. Erie. Right now golf and POV article reading are getting very little of my time.

    UNC is the ACC FB foe I dislike the most. I thought the Tar Heels were overrated last year and we did not get a shot at them.

    This year, I don’t think they are overrated and I look forward to that Thursday night game on prime time. There will be no hiding Duzz with this one, nor the empty yellow seats at Heinz Field.

    Right now the edge in all departments belongs to UNC (IMO) except Punters (ikr).

    I don’t see more than five wins this year, but with a weaker schedule (except Clemson), this “could” be a special season. Hoping it is special but not planning on it being that. I can tell you up front, I will be at every home game, Lord willing, cheering for my school.

    I also believe there will be far fewer fans in the seats, not because of COVID-19, but because of lack of interest. I know several friends who did not renew season tickets – several whose kids attended Pitt and there will be large amounts absent because of those decisions not to renew this season.

    Sad, but true…

    Go Pitt!

    Liked by 2 people

  56. Unless someone on here is an expert on Whipple’s offense, we have no idea what the QB progressions are on each play. Based on the complexity of the offense, he may be able to change the play pre snap or the receiver can have options based on coverage, blitz reads, etc.
    We will never know because the crappy Pittsburgh sports media will never ask insightful questions.
    Reed is certainly correct in that a rushed QB can’t always get through his progressions, huge advantage in that situation to a mobile QB.
    Also, if you can’t run the ball or rarely call run plays, the defense can rush more aggressively and sit back in coverage.
    Whipple’s offense sucks. WMG.

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  58. Heard a Pitt radio ad yesterday selling tickets for Pitt Football games. Made me chuckle when the guy reading the ad said “…tickets for Pitt’s home games are still available…”. 🤔

    Go Pitt.

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