Next Up: Georgia Tech

By Richard Hefner

Note that the Pitt-GT game has been delayed until Dec 12 due to COVID 19. Pitt has paused all football related activities.

Pitt is coming off a much-needed victory over Florida State 41 – 17. Pitt is now 4-4 (3-4 in conference). It was an enjoyable game to watch with an inevitable (at least to me) win pretty well insured by the end of the 3’rd quarter. Our upcoming opponent is Georgia Tech 2-5 (2-4 in conference). GT is coming off a bye week with hopes of breaking a 3-game losing streak.

Pitt fans will be able watch the 7:00pm on their Regional Sports Network. For me that is either Fox Sports South or Fox Sports Southeast.

Before we start on the Georgia Tech – Pitt comparisons, let me tell a story/rant about 3 teams. On October 27’th, Austin Peay (AP) lost/promotes/hired their 3’rd coach since July. In July, Mark Hudspeth (former up & comer at Louisiana (aka UL-Lafayette, aka ULL) abruptly resigned as HC at AP while he was under suspension for “Unacceptable Conduct”. AP promoted Marquis Lovings to HC for AP’s “Rent a Win” fall campaign. On October 27’th, Austin Peay hired 30-year-old Scotty Walden as their new HC. Walden will guide AP for their 2020 OVC campaign scheduled to start in February 2021. Two things – Walden is youngest head coach in D1. (Yes, FCS is NCAA D-1), Will Healy who some mention as a Pitt HC candidate, was the HC at AP before Hudspeth.

So where did Walden come from? Walden was working as the interim HC for Southern Mississippi (USM). Walden was promoted to that position after then HC Jay Hopson resigned the day after an opening game loss to South Alabama in the 2020 season opener. Walden was the offensive coordinator before his promotion. USM has now promoted another assistant (Tim Billings) to HC. As long as USM does not hire Billings as the full time HC for 2021, USM will be on their 4’th in less than a year.

Southern Miss had/has a reputation as one of the better known G5 teams. At one time, they were bowl eligible for 18 straight years. The last three were coached by former UNC HC Larry Fedora. His last year at USM finished with a 11-2 record and a number 20 ranking in the AP poll. From my past treks to the red neck Riviera (Biloxi), I talked with USM fans every year. They can point to the coaching hire that undid whatever mystique USM had. – Ellis Johnson.

Ellis Johnson, a long-time defensive coordinator with some experience as a head coach, took the reins from Fedora, promptly changed everything finished the season 0-12 and even more promptly was fired. His head coaching experience was at FCS Gardner-Webb (20 miles from where I live) (5-6) & a 3-year stint (12-22) at The Citadel.

And that long, complicated & winding story is how I have now managed to work either kin or “The” Citadel into my last 5 articles. I batcha you thought I was telling a story about the unknown pitfalls of coaching hires.

Geoff Collins is in his second year at the helm of the Yellow Jackets. He is one win away from matching his win total from 2019 (3-9). He has already matched his win total against FBS teams (2). Collins has the unenviable task of converting a triple option team to a modern (FBS) system.

He has already made progress in recruiting. Compared to Paul Johnson’s last two recruiting classes 2017 Rivals rank 41, 2018 ranked 53 and a combined 9 5.7 an above of 45 recruits, Collins has classes ranked 43 (2019 transitional year) and 24 (2020). He also recruited 19 5.7 and above on 44 total recruits. The 2020 class is impressive containing 5.8 4-star QB Jeff Sims and 5.9 4-star RB Jahmyr Gibbs. More on them later.

Georgia Tech for the time period 08/01/19 to 10/30/20 had 14 players enter their name into the transfer portal including one player who entered 6/1/20, changed his mind and came back only to reenter the portal on 10/27/20. These are the 6 (of 14) players who entered since 8/1/20:

Not surprising that all except for the last entry were Johnson’s recruits.

To help make up for roster openings or deficiencies, Georgia Tech signed 4 off the portal.

One of the 4 (OT Devin Cochran) did not enroll at Georgia Tech and is not on the roster.

Who are the identified preseason potential “Stars”? There was no one selected to the preseason All ACC team. Seven selections in total.

The punter is good. He is ranked 4’th of 80 averaging 47.7 yards per punt. Our Aussie is ranked 20’th with an average of 44.7 yards.

Jordan Mason was GT’s leading rusher in ’18 and ’19 with a combined 1,800 yards. He was injured in early September and has only had limited carries in the last 2 October games.

DeFoor, a 2019 season transfer, leads a Oline in transition from the triple option.  How is the Oline doing? Here is the leading rushers chart.

Both RB Gibbs & QB Sims are true freshmen. Griffin is a 5.8 4-star from the 2019 class. Collins recruiting is making an impact. Mason made the “Stars chart. GT is ranked 63’rd (out of 123 ranked teams) in rushing yards per game.

Does the revamped Oline protect the QB or move the opponents DLine on running plays. Here is a comparison of GT’s & Pitt’s Oline in sacks & tackles for loss allowed.

IMO,  while both are average at protecting the QB from sacks, Pitt overall is better. That may be because KP more experienced. Pitt is absolutely horrid at moving the pile off the line of scrimmage. Advantage to GT on adj. TFL’s.

How is true Freshman Jeff Sims doing as a QB? Here is a comparison of QB’s passing stats with and without OOC opponent.

Usually, a QB’s pass efficiency rating goes down when excluding OOC stats (like KP & JY), but Sims went up. In this case, it is a matter of opponents. Pitt played D1 FCS Austin Peay while GT played D1 FBS G5 UCF. Sims had a bad day against UCF (105.0 rating). I will not get into excuses for that performance.

Here is a comparison of offensive stats.

The NCAA rank is based on 123 teams. That is up by 20 teams who started their season last weekend. There are now teams who have played one game compared to others who have already played 8.

Pitt and Georgia Tech are not offense behemoths. Georgia Tech runs the ball. Pitt passes the ball.

To me, it is a toss-up if the game was based on offense only. But it is not. Defense is also involved.

So, let us compare team defense.

All team rankings are out of 123 eligible teams

Based on defensive stats alone, Pitt is heads and shoulders above GT.

Of the potential Stars, 4 of them were on defense. Three of them were DB’s. –  2 Safeties and a CB. I expected a better pass defense. Jack Curry, the LB, is Pitt’s Tre Tipton. Both have been around for 6 seasons.

It is now time to compare sacks & TFL’s.

That is a Pitt advantage.

Here are some additional stats – penalties & turnovers.

It is a draw on penalties. Pitt clearly wins the turnover battle.

My concern with Pitt penalties is average penalty (9.01). Pitt’s ratio for every 6 penalties is close to 2×5 + 3×10 + 1×15 = 55,  55/6 = 9.17. So, I now better understand Pitt fans frustration with penalties. It is not only the number but the drive stalling or opponent drive extending 10 and 15 yarders.

Geoff Collins is doing a great job in building a program. Is it there? No. Will he get his 3’rd victory matching his 1’st year campaign of 3 wins. Yes, but it will be against Duke on 11/28. Pitt 31 – GT 13. (Assuming KP plays.)

Once again, I am asking for suggestions of stats or anything else you would like to see in these series of articles. Lam getting stale looking at same data. Lucky for me, I noticed yards per penalties and expanded on that. Actually,  I felt better after doing simple math. BTW- GT ratio on every 6 penalties is close to 4 – 1 – 1 (5,10,15). Pitt’s is 2-3-1. I rather have GT’s ratio.

99 thoughts on “Next Up: Georgia Tech

  1. Great article as usual Richard. I love having all the stats at hand.

    Side note for any fan in the Atlanta Area: I have received a “kitchen pass” to attend the game on Staurday and I have an extra ticket. If anyone cares to join me, email me at michaelangelo.monteleone@gmail.com.

    We will be sitting close to (but at least six feet away from) the Original Atlanta Panther (i.e. Doug).

    Liked by 1 person

  2. In other ACC news, Mike Norvell (FSU) announced these roster changes/updates on Wednesday:

    Tamorran Terry WR has left / opted-out of the remainder of the season. He was FSU’s leading receiver.
    James Blackman QB will be entering the transfer portal at end of season.
    Marvin Wilson DT (considered to be a better DT than Twyman) is out for the season.
    DeVontay Love-Smith (grad transfer from FIU) is out for the season after being injured during the Pitt game.

    It is notable that 2 articles from different outlets said Terry “left” the program. Two others said he “opted-out”.

    Opted-out is a term that was first used a few years ago when describing players who opted-out of playing in a bowl game. It later was used to describe a player “opting-out” to go pro with remaining college eligibility. I have also seen it used when referring to a player entering the transfer portal.

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  3. Nice work, Richard. Thank you.

    This sentence made me pause.
    “It was an enjoyable game to watch with an inevitable (at least to me) win pretty well insured by the end of the 3’rd quarter.”

    I can’t remember the last time Pitt – the Kings of Drama – won a real game where we didn’t have to sweat it out until the final minute…

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Tech is doing a fantastic job at recruiting. They will be a Coastal power within two years.

    Pitt needs to step up its recruiting of quality athletes. Those in skilled positions that can make an impact and be game changers. I’m thinking edge rusher, outside linebacker, cornerback, QB, RB and TE. I’m actually pleased with Pitts young receiving corps.

    Look at the average stars and the composition by position. Pitt is just having another ho hum recruiting year. Percentage of 5.7 rated and above isn’t where it needs to be. Pitt will be left behind.

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    1. Don’t forget OLinemen- it all starts with them…gotta keep those big boys in Pa… Hainsey, Lugg, Hinish, Carmody all wear the Irish Blue and Gold…….

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      1. True. But you dont need four stars there. Solid threes with upside and are good fits for the scheme. Work well as a collective unit. Game is won in the trenches.

        The difference makers are always at the skill positions. Pitt needs them on offense. It might have one today. That’s it.

        Above all, a QB is the most important. Then a line that protects that QB.

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  5. Only 20 percent. Pitt needs to be at 40 percent. Narduzzi has averaged around 25 percent. That gets you 7 win seasons and one participation trophy over 6 years.

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  6. Great article Richard. The continuing quality of presentation on the POV is amazing. Quite the standard.

    Duzz is a defensive coordinator in a head coaching job. He just can’t get his arms around the important role that offense plays in winning games. Good offensive coordinators can’t and won’t work with him. They won’t come to Pitt. And yet we pay this CEO of the defense as if he were head coach. What?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. AFH, this is not uncommon. Pitt fans saw this as long ago as the early 80s with Foge. And probably the main reason Chryst is doing so well since he left Pitt is that he has had 2 really good DCs at Wisconsin (the 1st one is now HC at Baylor)

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  7. Rich, couldn’t agree more. As I looked over GT, I saw that the big difference between the 2 teams is that Pitt is ranked 9th on total defense while GT is 101st. Of course, in this wacky year, who knows …. but if Pitt can stay away from turnovers. they should ne good (we all saw how important TOs were last week)

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Hey Tex, after watching your Toledo Rockets blow a 10 pt lead with a little over a minute left last night, I think Coach Candle would fit right in at Pitt. Not recovering an onsides kick and then leaving a WR uncovered for the winning TD certainly is certainly SOP

    But still nothing like what Va Tech did vs Liberty in the final 8 seconds last week. On the other hand, maybe there are lot more schools ‘Pitting it’ out there than what most Pitt fans realize. All they have to do is look

    Liked by 1 person

    1. He’s an offense guy. Offense wins. His team did put up enough to win. With Pitts budget, he could hire some very good D and special team assistants. And here’s the kicker. Louis riddick is a big fan of him and knows him personally. He’s not my top pick though but he is on my list for a reason.

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    2. Other schools do ‘pitt’

      But no other school has Lucy holding the football and then yanking it away.

      Lucy being a metaphor for every AD At Pitt over the past 40 years.

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  9. Packer and Durham (ACCN) this morning went into some detail about the FSU situation. Pretty sure they used the words “dumpster fire” at some point.

    Interesting thing is that they could have been describing Pitt. Multiple unsuccessful HCs. They need a top quality QB. But they can’t recruit a QB until they have an O Line that can protect him. So they need to recruit solid O line guys before they can turn the program around. I’m paraphrasing, and probably not very well, but it sounds like the same issues that have been talked about here for at least 3 years.

    So which program do you suppose will turn the corner first (or ever)?

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        1. Believe me, the last thing anybody wants is to $hit out a 4star turd. Getting rid of a 5star 💩 earns you a trip to the ER.
          Stick to recruiting talk.

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      1. Florida – same reason

        FSU vs Pitt

        Fertile recruiting area vs not so much
        OCS vs no
        recent success vs not so much (FSU has had 6 seasons since 2010 with 10 or more wins)

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  10. Nearly 5 sacks and 2 turnovers per game for the Panthers defense.

    Its like we’re given a goodie bag to open during every game.

    Really well written article.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. If Pitt does go bowling, I’ll treat if the game is here in DFW. There are multiple games here. Latest projection is the first responders bowl. Dec 30 in dallas.

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  12. Covid is back with a vengeance. Many schools in WPA going remote. Talks ongoing to shut down extra-curriculars. Numbers going up too fast in too many places.

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    1. I don’t see how basketball will be played particularly after Christmas break. Things will get real bad then.

      Tex in a bunker with bourbon. Safe from covid and twisters.

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  13. The Yahoo NFL FB fantasy league I am in has had Ben as a virus case. I guess Pitt FB also in same condition. Better safe than not. Virus unstoppable.

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    1. I read that article & I got the impression that Ga. Tech was going to postpone if Pitt didn’t. Or maybe Pitt just announced the postponement before GT.

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  14. Heard a rumor floating around in my head that GT won’t be available come Dec 12th so PITT will play Clemson two games in a row to end the season??

    We are just lucky we had the opportunity for PITT to play and watch as many games as they played this year. I’ve been waiting for this shoe to drop for weeks now.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. The #1 ranked Pitt men’s soccer team shutdown a few weeks ago.

    Why wouldn’t the Pitt administration shut down the 60th ranked Panther football team?

    Makes sense to me – besides, it’s Masters weekend – enjoy!

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  16. It is ridiculous to continue this charade of a football season. Just shut it down and be safe.

    At least Pitt won’t finish with a losing season.

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  17. Sending kids back to school is looking like a failed experiment that has endangered us all.
    Looks like the exponential growth that was feared and predicted by public health professionals
    is almost here. Daily cases exploding everywhere and even with a lower death rate, total deaths keep rising.

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    1. I teach 8th grade in PA. Before you read my comment, know that all districts are different and some have taken great measures to protect staff and students…others have not. It has been a very interesting ride this year to say the least. We were told classes wouldn’t have more than fifteen students to allow for social distancing. Wrong. Most parents sent their kids to school rather than take the online option because few people want a preteen/thirteen year old sitting home alone all day. We were told schools would be shut down when a certain number of cases occurred. Wrong, we would never be open. We were told taxpayers would complain that we would be looked down upon for continuing to get paid if we taught remotely using zoom rather than going in…so far I see that as wrong.

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      1. As a parent, glad you are teaching in person. Virtual does not provide the same education from my experience.

        …and thank you for being a teacher. You have a huge positive impact on our youth.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Most students at our high school have opted for online. There is no hybrid option here. Either online or in class instruction. Online is working out well. If your child is involved in extracurricular activities, that gets them out of the house where they can socialize. It’s become routine now. Almost normal. Kids and parents adapt. That’s what we do best.

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  18. The Masters is definitely different. Instead of the excitement of spring with Green bushes and trees and colorful flowers very drab and dreary. Surprised they didn’t load up on mums and fall colors.

    The course is also muted with soft and slower greens and less wind.

    Still, much better than no Masters, and great golfers to watch.

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  19. In this part of Noirth Carolina I can take you to houses with poinsettia’s outdoors in the flower bed in the month of July and tulips in January.-.they are all plastic of course…

    My only “covid” comment/question-for my buddy GC…If one tests positive for covid one time but then tests negative the next time what is the score? do you add “1” covid to the total or does the negative cancel out the positive test and “0” covids are added to the total….death rate is what concerns me!!!…”Warp Speed” brings a virus vaccine into play before the end of the month-WOW!!!…I heard or read the last disease that a vaccine was developed for was the mumps which took 4-6 years to develop…

    Great week-end to kick back and enjoy golf…torrential rains here yesterday not golf for me, too soggy…had to take a detour to work due to flooding of swamp feeder “cricks.” Only have seen that type of flooding in hurricanes.

    yinz/ya’ll have a great week-end….

    Liked by 2 people

  20. The vaccine should be available for mass distribution by next summer. Until then we are in for a dark winter like the scientists say. And even with the vaccine, it’s only 90 percent effective and there will be those who refuse to get the shot. Therefore I still expect to see outbreaks come next Fall. But I think we’ll be close to 100 percent capacity at sporting events by then. Unless of course it’s Pitt and your capacity is more like 50 percent before heather announces fake attendance numbers.

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  21. Clearly, this is not a year to be out looking for a new head coach. But there could be some good OC candidates available since most assistant coaches are coaching on one year contracts. If Pitt forces Narduzzi to replace his OC, then a current assistant coach such as Beatty could be upgraded for a year which leaves the door open to replace Narduzzi next year. However, any decent OC out there who considers Pitt would want a two year commitment in this crazy environment, so most likely Pitt would let Narduzzi finish out his contract and save the buy out.

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  22. I don’t know why any OC candidate would want to walk into a situation where the HC is dead man walking.

    If Narduzzi isn’t fired next year, it could very well be the next when the financial hit isn’t as severe.

    As a OC, I’d want two years of guaranteed money. With money upfront.

    I just don’t see pitt winning more than five games next year given the turnover and transition.

    Another 7-8 win season could follow that. With a crappy bowl.

    Again, is HC making $4million, top 25 pay, a good value and good roi if the win totals are 8 or less.

    I personally don’t think so. I don’t over value and over weight the saving of kittens and gpa’s like Pitt does.

    Find a new coach for $2.5 and use the $1.5 savings to hire quality OC and DC, and plow more dollars into the recruiting budget.

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    1. The joke will be on you Ike.

      You still talking about ten win seasons with Narduzzi? And through the roof attendance and record breaking donations with heather?

      Let us not forget top 50 in the directors Cup.

      You can laugh at my expense but who will be laughing last? 🤠

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      1. Tex, this year doesn’t even count. The administration likes the guy, you have to realize that. By the time you laugh last I may not be around to hear it?

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        1. The admin does like him. Big boosters do not. And heather owes her job to him. You’ll still be kicking Ike. You’re stronger than most mortals.

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      1. To be clear. When I say PN isn’t going anywhere anytime soon means just that. If he up and leaves or gets shown the door I’ll be fine with it. My view is strictly how I see his future for now at PITT. You people go on ahead and try and figure out who PITTs head coach will be in two years but I already know.

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  23. Correction on my part. Ben sat next to positive virus player on plane but he apparently ok. Pitt set for GT on December 12. I wonder if college teams will be playing regular games on Christmas and New Years. Money talks.

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    1. Not sure how bowls make money without fans. Many have already cancelled. But not here in Texas. Hopefully, Pitt comes down to DFW. Hopefully it isn’t like the game against Houston in Fort Worth. I watched on TV. It was cold and rainy that day. Narduzzi was recently just announced coach. Although the glow of heathers yellow blouse that day did provide a fake sense of warmth and comfee dryness.

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  24. A few clarifications / considerations..

    — a large handful here are talking 10 wins but certainly not everyone. Even before the altered schedule, I thought 8 or maybe 9 wins tops. UNC, Va Tech and Miami all had more starters returning and of course, there were Clemson and ND. Why 10 wins is some kind of standard here is mystifying since it has been done once in the last 38 years.

    — my school district which is large and mostly rural is now online only, until further notice. The businesses at the county seat are back to previous restrictions …. set by the locals this time.

    — 2020 ACC Men’s Soccer Championship
    Quarterfinals | Sunday, Nov. 15
    Held at North Carolina Campus Sites
    Virginia Tech (N2) vs. Clemson (S3) | Noon | Durham, N.C. | ACCN
    North Carolina (S2) vs. Notre Dame (N3) | 2 p.m. | Chapel Hill, N.C. | ACCN
    Wake Forest (S1) vs. Virginia (N4) | 4 p.m. | Winston-Salem, N.C. | ACCN
    Pitt (N1) vs. Duke (S4) | 6 p.m. | Raleigh, N.C. | ACCN

    • ACC teams hold all of the five spots in the United Soccer Coaches national rankings this week: Pitt (1), Wake Forest (2), North Carolina (3), Clemson (4) and Virginia Tech (5). So if Pitt can hold serve (which is certainly not a given), the championship game will be on ESPNU on Nov 22

    • Pitt leads the nation in scoring at 3.4 goals per game, while Panthers sophomore midfielder Valentin Noel is tied for the national lead in goals with five.

    Liked by 1 person

  25. Ten wins is only mystifying at Pitt. That is the marker for programs. In fact top 25 rankings is THE marker. Pitt epically fails.

    Again the vast majority of very good coaches hit this mark by year 6. Narduzzi isn’t a very good coach. Dem the facts. Don’t give me excuses about the ooc. Pitt plays in the weakest P5 division and always plays Cuse as a crossover. How freakin easy.

    Top third spend in the ACC. Can’t blame the budget either.

    And Pitt football…the real football, is the real deal. I support with my pesos. American football I support with toilet paper and a flush. I don’t support chumps.

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  26. The crest is well done. Simple. And easily explained. Too bad football picks coal miners daughter and pulls off looking like Army. Pathetic idiots.

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    1. Sorry Tex, lots of people love the alternative uniforms. Including me. Spend a weekend flipping through college football games. Most schools have them and they aren’t the normal school colors….that is kind of the point.

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  27. I have friends and family with kids in different colleges, middle schools, high schools. They all have had a mix of virtual and mostly in class. They go virtual if there is a small outbreak. It has gone well and the positive cases have been low. All agree, virtual education is not as effective. Especially for middle school and below.

    The CDC has been crap. They should blow it up and start over. Their numbers have been all over the place, at one point they were including positive antibody test in them, they include probably positives (whatever that means) and they probably include the antigen positives which are false positives a high percentage of the time. I’d be fired if I did my job like that.

    Have a good weekend gents. Watch some other college games so we can all pick the type of OC we want Pitt to have next year.

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  28. knock the data all you want, some people just can’t accept the fact that if CDC Guidelines were adhered to back in the beginning of summer, this country would be so damned better off right now, it’s pathetic.

    notrocketscience, it’s not rocket science, to move forward, you have to stop the spread. And this has been verified many, many time by doctors from your university …. and many, many others

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Nothing is stopping the spread except a vaccine. I believe 70% of those that get the virus say they wear masks. I haven’t seen one person in a store or restaurant without a mask. I believe the masks are critical to slow it, but it will still spread.

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        1. Peter, you can believe what you want. I respect all opinions. You should learn to do the same instead of resorting to insults.

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      1. We most certainly could have done a better job of containing the virus until there is a vaccine or more effective therapeutics. We should not be setting new daily records for cases and deaths at this point and wouldn’t have if science would have been followed.

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        1. Same thing is happening in Europe gc. It’s the virus. Plus you want to blame closer to home look no further than your own family. My 3 kids, all around 40 years old, don’t respect this deadly virus. Holding kids birthday parties every other week without wearing masks. I’ll stay home thank you.

          Liked by 1 person

  29. WPIAL Central Catholic Forfeits (Erie) McDowell Game Over COVID-19 Concerns

    Probably the only way McDowell beats CCHS unless James Conner is playing.

    EE who plans to play golf tomorrow morning and watch golf tomorrow afternoon.

    Liked by 1 person

  30. Dan, I’d still like to get your take, as our top BB guru, on this year’s Pitt basketball squad. I think Pitt will surprise some people.

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  31. Working on an article. Trying to get to talk with Capel. Want to ask him why (and I think I know) he went away from the flex offense to standard 1-4 a third of way into last season. Note …you have to be able to shot from outside to run the flex.

    Liked by 1 person

  32. Just saw this quote from a Central Catholic (Go Fran!) student:

    “I can’t thank the coaching staff enough for giving me an opportunity to stay in Oakland for another 4 years & play in the ACC. With that being said, I am proud to say:
    I have committed to the University of Pittsburgh to continue my academic and athletic career.”

    Unfortunately it was not an offensive lineman. ☹️ But it is a catcher for the baseball team (Joey Pilewski).

    Welcome to Pitt, Joey. 👍

    Liked by 3 people

  33. Guys I know it’s relevant to the thread but we need to shut down the corona talk. I don’t like where it’s going. Happy to suspend comments for the weekend if need be.

    Liked by 2 people

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