Pitt at Miami Prediction Thread

I think to successfully understand a Pitt – Miami game, you have to look at the history of Pitt vs Miami.

For example Pitt beat Miami in 1976, a 36-19 victory at Pitt Stadium. Then they didn’t play again until 1984. Pitt lost that game, 7-27, in Miami. Pitt proceeded to lose the next eight games against the Hurricanes. (1986 though 1996)

Pitt did manage to upset Miami in 1997 on a nationally televised Thursday night game. That also happened to be my first-ever Pitt game as a student. In some ways it might have been better if Pitt had lost because then I might not care about the team and I would have saved myself much wasted time and heartache over these last twenty years. But alas, the Panthers won, and here we are.

Pitt then went on another eight game losing streak (1998 – 2013). They pretty much got boat-raced every single time. The only exception was 2002 when Pitt lost by only a touchdown (21-28).

Pitt managed to win in 2014, 35-23. They, of course, lost the next two games.

We all remember 2017 (Pitt wins!), and I also think we remember the Pitt’s dismal performances each of the last two years. (Two Pitt losses with a combined 15 points scored)

So if the current trend holds…

I kid. No mentally competent person could possibly pick Pitt to win here. The lynchpin of Pitt’s already one-dimensional offense (Kenny Pickett) is questionable at best, and even if he does play, his mobility will be severely limited and this throwing will likely be impacted by his injury. Meanwhile Miami’s offense is run by a mobile and athletic quarterback who’s looked like a world- beater against everyone except (eventual national champ) Clemson. Also, Miami’s leading receiver is their Tight End. Stop me if you’ve heard this before but Pitt seems to have a hard time stopping athletic pass catching tight ends. (Hard time recruiting them too…)

Miami’s lead running back is also very good. Pitt has done an excellent job stopping the run so far this season, but the talent level of the Miami O-line and CamRon (sp?) Harris are going to be a cut above what Pitt’s faced so far. That could lead to a few broken tackles and a couple long runs. (And yes I know Miami’s o-line may be a work in progress as far as technique and actual execution…but there is no denying that Miami recruits some of the best pure athletes in the ACC.)

So to recap: Pitt probably won’t have Pickett and if they do he’ll be less than 100%. Pitt can’t run the ball. Miami’s offense is great. Pitt’s pass defense sucks. Miami features an athletic tight end. Pitt can’t stop the tight end. The line is Pitt +13.5. Pitt never beats Miami.

Absolutely no reason to be optimistic about this one. And I haven’t even mentioned special teams.

Miami 35. Pitt 9.

133 thoughts on “Pitt at Miami Prediction Thread

    1. Meeting my expectation here:

      1st half – Pitt is down 9-31. I think they have an early TD drive and miss the XP. Our defense coughs up a fumble and we redeem ourselves with a long field goal. But then Miami has its way on offense and gets a defensive turnover.

      2nd half – Miami asks to go to 10:00 quarters and Narduzzi is to proud to agree. Pickett is out at this point. Miami runs up the score to show they can.

      Final: Pitt 9 – Miami 52

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  1. Coffee for my breakfast
    Shot of whiskey on the side
    It’s a dark and dreary morning
    With the clouds covering up the sky

    And the forecast calls for pain
    The forecast calls for pain
    My baby’s turning cold and the
    Forecast calls for pain
    (Robert Cray)

    Either Pitt wins by 7 or Miami by 10 or more. Miami 27-13.

    Liked by 2 people

        1. JoeL, I’ve seen Robert Cray a couple of times. Once he opened for Peter Frampton. I was looking to seeing them play together but it didn’t happen. Don Felder was on the bill though, and Frampton and Felder played together on Hotel California and While my Guitar Gently Weeps….it was heavenly!

          Liked by 1 person

  2. Pretty dismal outlook. Maybe PITT ought to just phone it in. Somehow and I don’t know the reason but I’m more optimistic about this game. PITT has been embarrassed the last few games. We always seem to pull one out when things look the most bleak. Pitt in a fun game.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Never self identified as mentally competent…
    Non-predicted pop up ⛈ damages Miami’s offense and the good guys win in the slop 14-13.
    KP tries to gut it out but Yellen comes in to save the day in the 4th quarter with 2 consecutive shovel passes inside the 20 to seal the victory.
    *come on man…someone had to post it. 😎

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Well Captain Yossian … you cant be a Pitt fan if you don’t pick Pitt to win, and you can’t pick Pitt to win I’d you’re mentally competent … so there you go.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Took me a minute or two to relaize you were speaking of Capt Yossarian… impressed that a young whipper snapper lie yourself would have read or seen Catch-22. Part of required reading for aJournalism degree or are you just a worldly guy?

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  4. POV Plea: If anyone received an email from Pitt and is eligible to purchase ND or VT tickets, AND DOES NOT INTEND TO PURCHASE THEM, please consider allowing me to purchase them from you. Our family has a total of 6 season tickets, but is only being offered the opportunity to purchase 4. So I’m looking for 2 or possibly 4 more.

    Wlat

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  5. I don’t gamble because, well, I’m a loser, but if I did gamble I’d be on Fan-Duel throwing all of Tex’s and UPitt’s substantial coin on Miami. I might even toss in the dog and a few of the wife’s siblings.

    Forecast: Miami is still torqued over the Clemson beat down and takes it out on Drops-R-Us.

    South Beachers – 47
    Pitt – 9

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    1. Great point. Forgot to add the rebound effect and the opportunity to take out their frustration on a lesser opponent

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  6. Many a 3 and out for the Pitt O. Since I don’t think we will be seeing much of Pickett Miami 42 Pitt 3(only if Kessman is focused tomorrow).

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  7. This game will mirror the 2018 contest where Pitt’s offense couldn’t move the ball at all due to the overmatched O-line. This current line is worse than 2018, so it could be ugly.

    The defense will hold up for some time then crack due to being on the field too long. I hope it is not a blowout and Pitt actually injures some Miami guys in the loss.

    Miami actually has a kicker this season, a grad transfer. How will the Wild Man kick for Pitt? He might not even get a chance to do so.

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    1. Elon? LOL! From the ages of 10-16 I used to attend a basketball camp in PA. One of the coaches at that camp was the basketball coach at Elon. Definitely an obscure reference, but one that made me laugh.

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  8. Press Coverage Pat will stubbornly cling to the notion that his corners can actually play press coverage without getting torched. Miami will provide him with ample evidence that he’s dead wrong and will score on at least 3 TD’s over 50 yards. In the post game, Pat will insist that the problem was something like “we need to get lined up correctly” or “we had a few technique errors that cost us”. It will never dawn upon him that what he’s asking his current corners to do is kinda like asking me to run a sub 4 minute mile and then blaming my 9 minute result on “technique”. Pat’s the worst kind of moron; he’s a stubborn moron.

    Pitt gets boat raced.

    Miami 45
    Pitt 10

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  9. I had NCST and BC as wins and Miami as a loss. So why should I not have Miami as a win? I am still asking myself that question. I think ABC already answered that question. So we are back on ACCN.

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  10. Agree with Reed, this D won’t give up 40….unless Pickett is out and they are 3 and out all day long.

    Without Pickett: Miami 38 – Pitt 10
    With Pickett: Miami 31 – 20

    Louisville scored 34 on them.

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  11. A week ago, I played the optimist and foresaw Mr. Sibley hearing his number called on a critical down and taking it around end for a score and a Pitt win.

    The table was SET. After the touchdown in OT, Victory was there for the taking. All that was required was for Narduzzi to DARE to make the call to go for “2”.

    Maybe I was a week early.

    A BIG maybe.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. Miami has a QB

    Miami has a Kicker

    2 things they never had.

    If Jordan TE plays it gets ugly. Either way Miami -10.5 my line I got is a lock as is the Browns getting 3.5.

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    1. How many times has pitt been on the one yard line with 4 full downs and limped away with zero points. At least three that I know of during the terrible reign of king Pat.

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    2. I know it’s been almost a week, but I feel like it was so obvious that Pitt wasn’t in position offensively to trade punches with B.C. at that point and going for two and the chance to steal the game was the clear call. As one off, I could (kind of) live with it, it’s what the analysis says about the coach’s thought process that’s concerning long-term.

      Liked by 1 person

  13. Pitt’s stout defense will keep it close in the first half. I’m thinking they go into the break down 14-10 on a couple of big plays when the CBs get torched. Then Miami cranks up the running game in the second half, wears down the defense, and Pitt loses 35-17.

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  14. Lots of talk about Narduzzi’s D leaving the CB on an island. By the way, this D is played by many college teams.

    I remember reading that one factor that plays into the decision to play man coverage is that the long ball in college football, especially a pass down the sidelines, has a very low completion rate. The middle of the field usually has safety help.
    Most college QBs can’t make an accurate deep throw, Louisville’s QB comes to mind.

    MM, does your stat web site give the completion rate for passes over 25 or 30 yards for all of college football?

    Liked by 2 people

    1. King is not known as a very accurate passer. His completion rate on passes thrown past the LOS is about 45%. They throw a lot of horizontal stuff, ala Ffrench,

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  15. Here is a great example of a Pitt fan excuse-making (from the Post-Gazette):

    Beano in Wonderland: Paul, I’ve read over the last 2 weeks how Pitt always loses games they should win. I think we need to give the kids a pass this year because of the virus. Emotion in football is very important and I watched the Panthers jog out of the tunnel for the NC State game and I knew they were in trouble. How do you get up for a game when there’s nobody to cheer you on? Even as a viewer I don’t get as emotionally involved without the entire game ambiance.

    Zeise: You are joking right? Do your job. The kids from NC State and BC figured out how to get up for a game

    Zeise has it correct on this one – but let’s take a look at what fans have to say about the season if Pitt comes in below .500. You just know there will be exactly the same thoughts as the idiot Beno in Wonderland has right now.

    Let’s list them:

    1) Covid-19. This effects only Pitt but none of our opponents. Even though Pitt has been great at containing the virus among the football program.

    2) Shortened season. Of course if we played a full 12 game season vice 11 games it would be a different story.

    3) injuries / Opt-Outs: Well, Pitt has had injuries before, as again, other teams have had, so that means nothing. Opt-outs are exactly the same as transfers and leaving early for the draft. Pitt has had more star players leave after two years than any other school I believe…Fitzgerald, McCoy and Lewis are three big-time players for Pitt who didn’t even return for a third year.

    Fitz left after the 2003 season and in 2004 we went 8-4

    McCoy left after the 2008 season and in 2009 we went 10-3

    Lewis left after the 2010 season and in 2011 we went 6-7. That an outlier but then again Todd Graham didn’t help matters.

    I do always love to go back at the end of seasons and look at what Pitt fans on The Blather and POV predicted. As any school’s fans optimism is the flavor of the day there.

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    1. Pitt has the toughest ACC schedule. The southern refs have it out for pitt. Narduzzi has indigestion for most games. Our fans didn’t cheer loud enough. I can go on. I get good fodder from the many excuse making posters on this board.

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  16. notrocketscience, this is my biggest irritation about Pickett. He throws that deep sideline pass that is rarely completed. Many times it is thrown on 2nd and 6 or 3rd and 4, when a short crossing pattern gets the first down and sustains the drive. It’s hard to believe that Whipple calls this play.

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Pitt 24 Miami 23

    Pitt controls the ball with short screens and QB runs, Pitt blocks a Miami punt, and gets a pick six to pull off the upset. Pitt fans around the globe are shocked. Heather gives the NardDog a new 10-year contract and lifetime supply of Fanta.

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    1. I’ll take a bet with you Rocky… if Pitt gets positive yardage on a screen pass you win. I honestly think I they haven’t gotten yards in a screen all year. What I can’t tell you is the reason.

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      1. MM – you are on! If Pitt doesn’t get positive yards on the screen pass (to also include the forward pitch) against Miami, then Ike will eat a pound of rocky mountain oysters. 🙂

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    1. Deja vu, Dan. That was the final score when Dave Hart took the panthers to the beach in 1968.

      Have we sunk to that depth of incompetence again? I hope not.

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  18. Well Pitt has a few facts on their side when it comes to this game.

    -(1). Miami does not throw much downfield (one of Pitt’s weak spots) – they throw mainly bubble screens, wheel routes to the RB and short crossing routes, but because of the speed they possess at the skilled positions, the canes have broken many long gains off the short passes.

    -(2). Miami lykes to run the ball and Pitt’s D has for the most part stopped the run this year.

    I was one of the first this week to call out that we were in for a boat race. I’m not so sure now that I think about this match-up. If Pitt can stop the run, the LB’s contain the cane’s skilled guys and Duzz makes very few critical call mistakes, we may have a chance.

    Prediction later after work…

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    1. I agree EE. I don’t think blowout; I think we see another close game. No Pickett is going to be a problem (I’d be shocked if he is in uniform from what I’m hearing). I expect a good dose of Wildcat. I see an aggressive PITT D and we’ve got a good shot. Of course, penalties and turnovers have to be minimal. Something I don’t care for in a matchup like this are the on field antics, taunts and general shenanigans both teams usually display. No stupid penalties or ejections. No boat racing tomorrow…PITT 23-20.

      Liked by 1 person

  19. Here are the South Floridians on Pitt’s roster:

    D Carter / D Alexandre / C Kancey / B Hill / K Camp / M Williams / R Weaver / S Jacques-Louis / J Royal / A Davis / V Davis / L Smith / D Mathis / E Belgrave / S Williams / A Henningham (pius H Baldonero is from Rome and J Wayne from Canada but both played at Clearwater)

    Here are the Western PAers on Miami’s roster:

    Liked by 1 person

  20. Matchups make fights and although Pitt is outclassed on a talent level, I think the fact that Miami hasn’t shown the ability (yet) to exploit Pitt’s main weakness — the deep ball — keeps this closer than many here expect. Also, the fact that a good portion of Pitt’s roster is from South Florida (as mentioned above) should help insure against an emotional letdown coming after the B.C. loss. I think the defense keeps Pitt in it until late in the game when they wilt from being on the filed too much because of so many three-and-outs from the offense. Miami 27, Pitt 20.

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  21. Ok, I will keep my streak alive and am figuring it out still on how Pitt wins this game. First and foremost, the total points scored has hit the under in 13 of Pitt’s last 16 road games. The number is currently at 48 1/2. This works in our favor. So, that should mean that we will not give up a lot of points and our prolific offense will not score more than 30 points.

    Pitt will need to run the ball (yes, i said that), particularly with misdirection plays to offset the speed and pursuit of the Miami defense. I wish we had a trap running game to also combat the speed of Miami. I somehow think we have a couple of chunk yard pass plays to keep the running game going enough to win time of possession. Upitt correctly points out that they have a real solid kicker and he will get them many points.

    If it doesn’t go this way, I will echo the leader of the Pitt program when asked the most obvious question and reply “I will have to go look at the tape……and then get it corrected”. You guys can’t pick on me for saying that or else it would be hypocritical as our head coach has said that and gotten away with it for years.

    Don’t shoot the strategist! Pitt wins 24-23.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. lol, not counting on it this week joel, but one can dream! If we knew more of our qb injury, that would have helped try to formulate a strategy. Prediction above was done in front of the gates.

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    1. Mid-direction would be a welcome new wrinkle. With a sub-par Oline, you would think mis-direction would be used heavily, but unfortunately that has not been the case…

      Go Pitt.

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  22. Pitt can win if Miami does what they did 3 years ago

    A few tidbits:

    Mack Brown is 0 and 6 against his alma mater, FSU. UNC plays them tomorrow. Wonder if FSU made a play for him the past few years

    I’ll be interested to see what BC does at Va Tech. They took UNC to the final minute but that was at home (if that makes a difference this year)

    John McGonigle, PG Pitt writer (and I assume J DiPaola Trib) will not make the trip to Miami since they will be required to quarantine 2 weeks since FL is on the magic list. Guess that doesn’t apply to sports teams

    Tomorrow at noon on local AT&T Sportsnet is Liberty v Syracuse. Every week so far, AT&TSN has had ACC games while Pitt is once again on ACCN

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  23. King Pat 26

    Queen D’eriqa 21

    Pitt’s comes to play hard and Yellen throws a nice enough ball that the receivers catch enough to win.

    The boat race is postponed due to less than ideal weather.

    H2P!

    Liked by 3 people

  24. How many 1st downs do you think Pitt will get with either of our 2 backup QB’s playing? Since I don’t think either of them will have Pickett’s ability to run with the ball I’m expecting at least 6 to 7 Miami sacks of the Pitt QB. Pitt’s problem will be our offensive time of possession will be at a seasons low in this game.—-Conclusion: There is not a snowballs chance in hell of Pitt getting this win absent Miami getting a boatload of Covid positives prior to game time.

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    1. probably but if memory serves, he played MLB in HS. He was about 240 lbs but could run very well. Most likely a 5 star because he was a man among kids in HS

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  25. Number 10 Pitt Women’s Volleyball is at Number 5 Notre Dame right now on ESPN2. Pitt won the first set 25-22 and is leading the second 13-7.

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  26. Zeise on Packer and Durham today commented on how stubborn Narduzzi has been on sticking to his “ scheme” on the D through-out his 6 yr tenure… Zeise calls it as he sees it… not a Duzz fan from what I heard today.

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    1. Zeise also told them “ no running back has stepped up – no running game and poor OTackle play…. D is real good when the front 7 are creating havoc but when that is not happening the DBs are exposed,,,,, same things POVerts reports…. and he basically calls Snarkduzzi out…

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  27. The ladies will get another shot at Notre Dame on Sunday afternoon at 3:30 on the ACC Network. I was surprised to see the players on both teams wearing masks while playing. If I understood the announcers, this is not required. Only the players on the bench and coaches are mandated to wear masks. I wonder if wrestlers will be wearing masks during matches. Seems like it would be hard to get enough oxygen when doing something so strenuous.

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  28. I didn’t see the first two sets but thanks to missingwlat saw the last three. Really good stuff. ND ladies just made more plays and fewer mistakes. Their defense, blocks and digs was slightly stronger.

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  29. I like Zeise a lot…try to listen to his evening radio show every chance I get.
    He is critical of Duzz but does not call for him to be replaced.
    He feels stability in the program is important at this time and recruiting is going well.

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    1. I listen to him as well. Sat next to him and his Mrs at UVA during the monsoon game. He’s an edgy guy.
      I get annoyed when Pirates pre-game takes over his spot. If they were actually trying to win something I’d feel different.

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  30. looking at Reed’s posting above about Pitt-Fordham reminds me of looking at my dad’s Youngstown Univ yearbook from late 40s. (served in WWII between high school and college)

    The FB coach there was a guy named Dike Beede who began in 1938 until 1972, when a guy named Ron Jaworski was QB. Previously, he was at Westminster and Geneva colleges.

    But get this ….. his claim to fame is that he invented the penalty flag in 1941. He thought there should be a way to signal when a penalty was committed instead of horns and whistles, and eventually it caught on. His wife Irma was known as the ‘Betsy Ross of football, because she made the first penalty flags from colorful cloths with black stripes.

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    1. Having film of that Pitt-Fordham game is amazing. Made me wish there was film of the 1940 Tennessee-Alabama game when my uncle Mike caught two TD passes to help beat Alabama and go on to be undefeated in the SEC until they lost to BC in the Sugar Bowl. I knew nothing about this until I discovered it on the internet. Mike was also on Bear Bryant’s first staff at Kentucky. He and his brother were legends at Allegheny High School on the North Side. I wonder if Pitt tried to recruit them.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. When Chancellor Bowman killed the football program in 1938, I’m guessing your uncles decided to head elsewhere to play football. No university wants to see its football program succeed less than Pitt’s.

        Side note, former Pistons GM, “Trader” Jack McCloskey enrolled at Pitt in 1940 and played football but left to serve in WW II.

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  31. Here is a quote from the P-G. This morning:

    “Narduzzi pointed to the reps Pitt cornerbacks Jason Pinnock and Marquis Williams have had to play with Damarri Mathis lost for the season. The coach raised his hand and admitted the Panthers’ starting corners weren’t rotated enough, handling around 160 reps each in the last two games.”

    Ok, lets see what happens with this and UM’s great hurry-up offense. Could be a very long day for the D’s back four.

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    1. This was also the case after the NC State game and nothing was changed for the BC game.

      This is insane. We keep doing the same things that cause losses instead of being innovative and change “some” things up to throw off the competition.

      You have to wonder what these coaches are seeing on the “tape” when they review the games.

      Like

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