Well well well, if it isn’t the eve of another ACC Coastal road game.  Pitt visits Georgia Tech on Saturday for a 4 p.m. kick, and I’m excited about that because I live about 40 minutes away from “The Flats” as they call it in Atlanta, and I’ll actually be able to watch the Panthers in person.

What I’m not excited about is Pitt’s tendency to play down to their competition.  And lets make no mistake, Pitt is better than Georgia Tech.  Pitt has more talent on defense.  Pitt has more talent on offense (Hard to believe but yes it is true).  Pitt’s developing offensive line should be able to get some push in the running game.  Pitt’s defensive style is geared towards stopping the run – which is pretty much the only thing Tech has done well this year.

Basically all Pitt has to do is tackle the running back, pressure the quarterback, and cover the deep passing routes (all of which they can do well), and they could very well pitch a shutout.

But they won’t.

Because Pitt’s offense is going to make mistakes.  Kenny Pickett will make at least one bad decision.  Someone will fumble trying to gain a few extra yards.  There will be a false start.  There will be holding.  Passes will be dropped.  Pitt’s 115th ranked offense will do everything they can to prove to the world that they’ve earned that 115 ranking.  Oh, and does anybody want to give me odds on a muffed punt?

So yes, I expect the offense to be sloppy, and I predict that Pitt will lose the turnover battle.  That in and of itself will keep Georgia Tech in the game.

Still, Pitt is more talented, by every single measure.

Sagarin shows Pitt 11 points better than Tech.  Even if you give the Jackets 3 points for home field advantage, Pitt should still be able to cover the 7.5 point spread.

  • Pitt 73.3
  • GT 62.8 (65.8)

The newfangled “S+P Rating” (it measures every team in the country on a play-by-play basis by calculating efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives) ranks Pitt 51st.  It ranks Georgia Tech 92nd.

Here is the ESPN prediction.  Pitt hasn’t been favored this much since Ohio.

PItt - GT Matchup

And here are the ESPN comparative stats:

Pitt - Gt stats

Some more food for thought:

  • Tech 2-1 vs the spread when playing ACC Coastal this year
  • Pitt 3-0 against the spread on the road this year
  • Pat Narduzzi 3-1 vs Georgia Tech

So yes, the numbers all point to a Panthers victory, but at the end of the day, Pitt is Pitt.  Sure, we could show up in Atlanta, kick an inferior team in the teeth and never look back.  We could just as easily show up and roll out the Keystone Cops offense that we displayed against UVA, Ohio, Penn State and Miami, and make this a very long afternoon for all involved.  Sad as I am to say it, but the Keystone Cops is probably what we should expect.

Oh yea, and by the way, if Pitt does manage to lose this one, the wheels are going to come off the season pretty fast.  Losing to a slight-underdog-but-ultimately-more-talented Miami team is one thing.  Losing to the Georgia Tech Ramblin’ Wreck (and this year that is a very appropriate name) is another.

Lets hope Pat has the boys ready.

Panthers 17, Yellow Jackets 10.

Hail to Pitt

Michaelangelo Monteleone

 

153 thoughts on “Georgia Tech Prediction Thread

  1. Let’s see Homecoming and a week to prep for Pitt… after a huge upset of Miami.

    Pitt… uninspired and again outcoached lays the ball down 4x.
    Whipple offense moves up and down the field and can’t score.

    Tech 24 – Pitt 17

    Like

  2. TD and 3 field goals for Pitt. Uninspired offense and the TD comes from good field position by a defensive turnover. However, GT does nothing to earn the win but wait for Pitt to “Pitt”. 3 turnovers and an inability to adjust at halftime will allow GT to chew up the clock and win 20-16.

    Like

  3. Before this article I wasn’t getting a very good vibe on this game just yet but after reading it, I say follow your nose to a PITT victory. I know, it wasn’t very hard to convince me. PITT’s defense really screws with the young GT QB and wrecks havoc. << Get it? ………… KP will do enough and put some points on the board.

    PITT ….38
    GT …….7

    Like

  4. It will be a one score game and who knows…. PITT 27 Jackets 24 but it could go the other way… I have PITT scoring 3 TDS- that my be wishful thinking…..

    Like

  5. Pitt wins 17-10 with all 17 scored in the 1st half. No adjustments made at halftime, just a few good Z’s that equate to zero points by the Pitt offense.

    The Aussie has a better game a booms some awesome punts after a few 3 and outs by the O.

    Penalties and turnovers keep Tech in this game.

    The D has a pedestrian 2 sacks and no turnovers.

    Duzz goes for one 4th and 1 but Pitt does not gain the yard needed for a first down.

    Another SMH performance by the O and coaching staff – the D does enough to win the game.

    Like

    1. I have a question for you and all others? If you have a big halftime lead, why in the hell would you adjust anything?

      In fact, maybe adjusting at halftime (going conservative) is as somewhat responsible for the 2nd half letdowns … although I don’t think that was the case vs Duke

      Liked by 1 person

  6. Good guys win in a romp…27-10. The POVert Road Warriors storm the field led by BigB draped in his WUPs flag.
    EJ sees Biggie and allows him to climb the ladder to lead the Pitt band!
    The post game celebration ends at dawn…

    Liked by 3 people

  7. Georgia Tech lost outright to The Citadel as a 27 point favorite. They are going through a style and personnel change with a new coach. This should be automatic, but it never is with Pitt. If Pitt loses this one, the sky is definitely falling. Pitt wins 23 to 13.

    Like

  8. the 27 point loss to Citadel is more about the learning curve of a new coach and new system. GT is a much better team now, and had 2 weeks to prepare. But Pitt is the better team and should win by a TD or more.

    Here’s a stat for you. The latest rankings show Pitt 86th in total offense but 115th in scoring offense. I’m pretty sure that we would be better off it this was reversed

    Like

  9. Georgia Tech is the better academic school, but this season Pitt has the better football team.

    Too close for comfort though Pitt wins, 23-17.

    Like

  10. Hoping we dial up some execution. No drops, fewer mistakes, no turnovers, fewer penalties.
    A recipe for success.

    That and both lines finally taking full control of a game.

    It could happen.

    Liked by 2 people

  11. Pitt has reached my predicted win number of 5. The offense is just awful. A lapse or two by the d and it’s all over. Can half a team win, yup, but it could be embarrassingly close( then again the win is a win group is never embarrassed). Aw, what the heck, Pitt by 2.

    Like

  12. Pitt wins big this week, 31-14. I think the offensive was embarrassed last week and looks for amends. We’ll have a great day passing against GT. Kenny Pickett will be the QB we expected instead of the one only Toledo wanted……………I’m ever the optimist!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I am confused. Tex wants the Toledo coach to be the next Pitt coach because he knows offense. Candle has been coach at Toledo since 2016. KP was in the 2017 class so it was Candle who recruited him.

      Did Candle at Toledo only become an offensive genius during or after the 2017 season? Or did Candle think KP would be a good QB.

      Liked by 1 person

  13. The Pitt offense keeps most every opponent in the game this year. And the Pitt defense that has played very well has not done so well in the turnover department. Take the points and GT to cover the spread. But Pitt gets a Kessman FG to eke out a win 17 to 14.

    Like

  14. I splurged a bit after a rough week of work and bought a bottle of Woodford Reserve instead of the usual Evan Williams. I’ll save the Woodford, “for the good times” after a Pitt win so it’ll be special for me the rest of the season. I find myself when Pitt plays anxiously downing one drink after another so I’m going to try and keep my game day sipper in another room so I am not a wreck like I was after last weeks game. I’m predicting a Pitt win, close as usual with these boys. I see the last 4 minutes being the biggest swing of the game. I think we shut down the GT run but GT will get those 1 or 2 over the top long passes on us. This game will be won in the trenches. If we are able to run the ball with the Davis’s and V’lique we should win. Setup the play action, go deep to Mack, Matthews and Ffrench. One thing I will predict this game, another dropped pass by a Pitt TE and another fumble on a punt return, who recovers it, i don’t know….Pitt wins ugly 17-12. Cheers mates

    ~TheShaman

    Like

  15. The Shaman, for the past 4 years or so, I pour me a couple fingers of Woodford after every Pitt win …. except for Duke and Cuse when I thought it was too late to savor. I waited until the following day. The WR is used only after Pitt wins and valued company … otherwise it is (currently) Jim Beam Black.

    Like

    1. I had a Basil Hayden’s after our last score on Saturday, didn’t know whether it would be a victory toast or drowning my sorrows at the time but knew either way I needed it.

      Like

  16. Pitt scoring drives for TD’s average 71 yards & 8 plays to get there.
    Panther field goals average 12 plays covering 52 yards
    Opponents average 9+ points per game against Pitt on drives starting on Pitt side of the field.
    Panthers average 80 yards in penalties per game.
    All games are close & Pitt wins this 27-21

    Liked by 2 people

  17. I’m not going to render a prediction for tomorrow’s game. I just don’t know what to expect from this team, and after the dead certainty proclaimed last week in beating a collapsing Miami team there is no way to predict which team will show up. Pitt’s last TD was scored when? They can’t win with just kicking field goals, and they have no red zone offense, no power running game and NO FULLBACK.

    Pitt started the year with supposedly a stable of solid running backs, and now they are playing a converted DB and only one legitimate RB that has been injured much of the year. This team has so many problems on offense that GT could win with about 14 points. That puts serious pressure on the defense. Sadly, if Pitt doesn’t win this game they may not win another one this season.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. For you all going to the game tomorrow….please be loud. I’d like to hear you on TV the way viewers could hear all of us at the Duke game. Let them know you are there; it energizes the kids.

    Might take wee bit of lubrication pre-game, but I know you all are up to it. Wish I could go.

    If Pitt avoids penalties and holds onto the ball, I think the match-up favors us.
    Sounds like the team had a good week of practice; lets hope that translates into success in the game.

    Dan – miss this one and your vision of going 0-4 is down the drain.

    Liked by 2 people

  19. GT is improving. The Pitt offense is angry this week.

    GT comes out rusty after a week off, Pitt pounces early and holds on for the win.

    Pitt 33 GT 20

    Like

    1. Oh, how is that blue corn Tex? I know the brand is well thought of. Ironically, I just saw blue corn in a local store here in Lancaster PA.

      Like

      1. About $60 a bottle so not cheap but if you’re gonna splurge it’s good stuff. Tastes uniquely Texan. I only break it out for special occasions.

        Like

  20. Ya know, 0-4 is as likely as 4-0. When you have a terrible offense it puts so much pressure on the defense to be perfect. A couple fluke big plays and we are screwed. Wins and loses in close games will average out. What a shame only having half a team. Not the first time we’ve seen this at Pitt.

    I still have slightly more than half a bottle of Pappy left. I give Mrs. JoeKnew the key to the liquor cabinet before Pitt games. You can guess why I still have half a bottle left!
    

    Liked by 1 person

  21. I’ve told this story before but here it goes again. This good friend was actually in my bio and he’s not the redhead. He bitches, complains and talks how PITT will lose the next game over and over…. etc. The one thing is, we both know he doesn’t believe a word he says. We know longer talk during a PITT game although he will text me to over 20 times a game but only when something bad happens. I never respond. It’s been several decades now but he continues this practice of trying to get hold of me during a game. Point is and this guy is very well educated, (six year Masters from PITT in economics) is he thinks his ranting actually helps PITT win a football game. (reverse optimism) I believe there are a few on the POV that feel the same exact way.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. I have started to feel this way

      Also if I sit in a certain place with my legs crossed a certain way Pitt is more likely to do well

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I don’t feel I’m superstitious in any way but I won’t watch a PITT football game without my PITT garb on and there is no talking while watching the game on TV. << (by myself or my great wife but she knows the rules) Meanwhile at a game in person, I’m elbowing and talking to all the people sitting near us about the game.. I could possibly be bipolar? Not that it hasn’t already been suggested by professionals.

        Like

  22. I don’t see our offense improving, which has been our achilles heel this year, and frankly I’m not sure what the biggest problem is, OC, OL or KP. I’m leaning toward the later, earlier int he year I would have leaned toward the OL, but this needs to be fixed, what a disappointing year for the offense.

    Like

  23. Pitt – 44
    GT – 9

    Which, of course, rekindles talk of the Whip statue, a possible Heisman for Kenny and a long overdue contraction extension for Pat I-like-the-program’s-trajectory Narduzzi before he is plucked away by the likes of USC, MSU or that bastion of athletic ineptitude commonly called Butgers.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. Does the Pitt offense go into a shell versus GT? To put it another way does Narduzzi think the Pitt defense will win the game via turnovers and not need the offense to win it? That folks is just what happened in the 4th Q last week and may just happen again this week. Narduzzi’s great fear IMO is that he has little confidence in the Pitt offense and just hopes it won’t turn the ball over and give GT some easy scores.

    Liked by 2 people

  25. Just my 1st POV reading of the week – hectic work week. Mike alluded to tech’s poor defense against the run above; Miami bounced back the week after a disappointing loss; we showed a flash of a running game last week; KP & The Sunshine Boyz showed up cloudy last week.

    Is there any doubt that PN will run the ball this week? Only passing when they pack the box. Success on the ground tomorrow would eliminate a lot of what went wrong last week (er, all year): drops, TEs, ints, holds, maybe even a couple offsides.

    Passing game put on ice this weekend; we run – like a Bradley Tank over a rambling wreck. Color coded win: Yellow 31 – Domer/Navy gold 10

    Like

  26. BTW, just settled into Hilton Garden Inn, Midtown Hotdamnlanta. Going out for a couple. Drinks and dinner.

    Dianne has her PITT Blue Nails this week ….. what could possibly go wrong??

    Liked by 4 people

  27. I envy you guys who go to games. I hope Pitt wins just so you get the afterglow of a win because what we experience after a loss is just too painful. The curious part of this is I know how in the scheme of things Pitt football means nothing. Problem is that I just love it so much and I have no idea why.

    Liked by 3 people

  28. Last row, Joel and 6&34. Texted with Bernie. We are getting with he and JeannieB in the AM. Doc Tom is coming in later this evening. We are all sitting together – with The Maestro. Not sure if anyone else we know.

    Looking forward to Pitt finally kicking someone’s a$$, for a change! Maestro – if you’re reading this, text me or Tom or Bernie about your ETA. GT info reminds that they wand at entry, and to come to gate a little early to get in on time.

    Liked by 4 people

  29. I was in the neighborhood, so I stopped in to see the Women’s BB team play an exhibition against Pitt Johnstown.

    The Pete looks good. New 4-sided scoreboard is impressive. One thing I’ve already seen complaints about is that they keep player stats at the bottom of the board on the basket sides only. The other two sides show the action with the score at the bottom. I think they need the player stats on all sides – to me, that’s the reason to check the scoreboard, besides the score, of course…

    The band and cheerleaders did a great job. The band has been moved to the opposite corner from where they were…

    Pitt beat Pitt! A couple of the new players looked promising. Also looked like a lot of growing pains coming up. At one point Aysia Bugg hit five 3s in a row.

    Pitt Johnstown appeared well coaches and had a couple nice players. Pitt forced them into a ton of turnovers – Pitt will be more athletic this year, but very inexperienced (except for Bugg).

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 3 people

      1. Dan — the new guards look like an athletic upgrade, but none of the new faces showed an outside shot tonight. Looked more like the men’s team with everyone looking to drive to the hoop.

        I was impressed, at least on the defensive end, with 6-4 freshman Rita Igbokwe. She has size and long arms – she brings a shot-blocking and rebounding presence to the paint we haven’t seen on the women’s team for a long, long time. Still raw, but lots of promise, IMHO.

        And this will sound funny, but my first impression of freshman point guard Dayshanette Harris was that she reminded me of the women’s version of Levance Fields. As a freshman, she looks like she’ll be both a highlight machine and a turn-over machine…

        Go Pitt!

        Like

  30. Didn’t know there was a women’s BB game tonite. We went to the volleyball game at the Fieldhouse. The #2 ranked Panthers handled Wake in 3 sets.

    Nostalgic to be back in that venue. Still the same old barn it always was but a really nice setting for volleyball. New court surface, new scoreboards, new sound system. The acoustics are really good. And appropriately sized for the crowd which was pretty good.

    Stopped at Ritters after for dinner to cap off a night of nostalgia.

    Oh, and those girls kick a$$.

    Liked by 5 people

  31. The Pitt men’s soccer team had a chance to win the Coastal division last night at nd.

    SOP as they lost 1-nil to the Golden Domers. No Coastal title this season. They are however hosting an ACC tournament game for me he first time ever.

    Like

    1. Pitt has a very good soccer coach. Your usage of nil is much appreciated by a football fan such as myself. Hoping for a Panther win on the pitch in the tournament.

      Like

  32. So how does this game rate for a 4 pm start and last weeks did not?

    I watched the ACCNetwork pre-game and don’t think they even mentioned it. Not sure because I didn’t catch the whole thing. It does look like things are going to be very tough though. VT’s new QB is a beast 6’5″ 245 and runs like the wind. UNC also looks very formidable and like us plays everyone tough.

    I don’t think it is hyperbolic to say today’s game is a must win for Pitt. Not so funny how one loss can change all the momentum in a season.

    Well we knew every game was going to be a challenge. I watched one commentator say that after the handful of elite teams in NCAA football that anyone can beat anyone and that really does seem to be true.
    Parity really is a thing.

    Pitt really needs to get its mojo back in this game, but how do we expect anything else but another nail biter?

    Like

    1. I agree with much, Pitt has lost 2 games it could have won but also won 3 or 4 it could have lost. It has a real good defense and a so-so offense.

      Just remember …. most people here predicted 7 wins plus-minus 1. A few predicted 9 or 10 while a few other predicted 5 or less. I recall the so-called experts having Pitt at 5.5. (pretty sure it was ESPN) I would like to think Pitt can win today and at home vs BC …. but UNC and VT are improved from a year ago.

      Fact is that there are still a couple scenarios where the entire Coast Division can finish 4-4. That would be disappointing since Pitt started out better than expected but again, most preseason predictions had them 4th or 5th in the Coastal (of 7 teams)

      Like

      1. and yes .. a deeming them as a so-so offense may be thought of being kind. But remember, all 3 losses were against top 15 defenses

        Like

    1. The defense is definitely better, but the offensive turnovers and dropped passes make last years offense much more reliable. Ask again in two weeks.

      Like

    2. This team by far Mark. It’s just that this years offense self-destructs way too much! If somehow the can clain the coastal again they will give Clemson a much better game.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Ike, I’m not sure. I know the defense is better but not sure if the offensive regression makes it a wash. We seem once again to have QB who hasn’t improved despite another year of experience and coaching.

        Like

        1. Mark, another first year OC makes it tough on Pickett. From my vantage point I’ve seen receivers open all over the place but Pickett misses them or they drop the pass. Or there is a penalty on the play. This years offense is capable of winning every game when they take the field. Last years offense was limited with the lack of a passing threat. See the Miami and Clemson games last year. They took away the run and PITT didn’t have an answer.

          PITT had more than one hundred more yards of offense last week. That’s with all the drops and penalties.

          Like

  33. Fitzgerald Field House holds a lot of nostalgia for me as well. My first time there was ’66-67′ for a high school indoor track meet. I think there were only two venues at that time, Fitz and South Park, but both were really cool for a high school kid. At that time Fitz had a wooden track which was pretty beat up by the pin spikes, but made a great sound as the runners went by.

    For the high jump pit you had a very short runway that ran across the track so you jumped between races.

    As a Pitt athlete, the training room was deep in the bowels of Fitz. I have a vivid memory of a football player having a problem with his anus and the trainer working at it with tweezers and his team mates standing around laughing their asses off. I was sitting in one of the hot tubs, I kid you not.

    My best memories were of the squash courts and ferocious games in the sub basement of the Fitz and the tunnel that went from Trees to Fitz.

    I attended a few BBall games in the Billy Knight era and the Brandon Knight era as well. Good times.

    Liked by 2 people

      1. Loved the Fitztoo … my first time there was to see a HS WPIAL basketball playoff with a local team Elders Ridge playing on the Class B card….

        Like

    1. I went to Pitt basketball camp in the summer of 1988 and we would play games in the upper level of Fitz. You want to talk about the definition of hot. There should be a men’s group for those wanting to lose weight and play pick up games up there. The weight would drop off it is that hot.

      I think there was a drought that summer.

      Like

    2. Can you believe someone with private money was willing to remove the racket ball courts and put in 5 new squash courts last year? The school was not interested. All of the ACC schools have squash teams.
      It is mind boggling that the Athletic department can ignore that.
      If anyone has some juice let me know.
      KMAN

      Like

      1. That is too bad, Squash is fun and requires a lot more skill than racquetball. Never played after my college years. Kind of an obscure sport at least in the Burgh.

        Like

  34. I know there is some complaining about Narduzzi running some sort of secret agency down on the south-side with no injury reports and closed practices but take Elias Reynolds as an example agreeing to “mutually leaving” the team shows a lot of class by Narduzzi. Just like he did with the south-side 5 debacle a few years ago, he kept silent. He keeps everything consistent by keeping all things quiet concerning his football team. This gives these young men the chance to move on with their lives and not ruin their careers. I respect that.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Maybe it’s a South Side thing. The Steelers were just fine $75k and Tomlin $25k for keeping silent Big Ben’s injury silent prior to the Seahawks’ game, which he left midway thru the 2nd quarter after a non-contact injury.

      Oh the poor bettors and Fantasy FB players!!! I feel so bad

      Liked by 1 person

      1. If you check out his highlight film, he lines up as a receiver too. That’s great! He’s used to catching the ball, and he returns punts.

        Like

  35. The only thing that is predictable about Pitt is (1) they almost always crap the bed when it matters and (2) just when you think you’ve figured them out they do the opposite.

    So, does this game matter? Well, being a conference game and being a must win game against an opponent that you simply have to beat in order to have any kind of decent season, you’d have to say yes. Therefore, Pitt should be likely to crap the bed today. However, based on the theory of they do the opposite of what’s expected, I’ll go with:

    Pitt 31

    Tech 17

    Liked by 1 person

  36. Should be an easy win but KP + dropped passes and punts+ a ton of penalties + kessman miss = 13-10 Pitt win. (Hopefully).

    It’s a shame this defense is wasted this year.

    Like

  37. Just heard an interesting interview with Kessman on the radio. Regarding his problems this season, he said they studied video and he found he was doing something different with his eyes. Said he got into a habit of following the snap back instead of focusing on the ball spot… Interesting.

    Also said how he’s gotten great support from Coach Duzz and the other coaches and specifically mentioned Coach Whip — said something like he felt it was the first time an OC was on his side… Also interesting…

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Yeah, I loved how Narduzzi gave him his full support early on this year. He may not be the best game day coach out there but I really like how he treats his players.

      Liked by 1 person

  38. According to Pro Football Focus (?), Pitt has had 26 drops this season.

    Seems low, but even that many is way too many…

    Maybe we should try gloves???

    Go Pitt

    Like

  39. You know, seeing how Georgia Tech seems to totally embrace “To Hell with Georgia” makes me want to rethink our policy on “Penn State Sucks”.

    Like

Leave a Comment Please and Keep It Civil...

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s