Stats compiled by Richard Hefner – aka Pitt-Cocks Fan

Article by Michaelangelo Monteleone

I’ll start this one with a disclaimer.  Kenny, if you a reading this, stop now.  You’re the best we’ve got and we are going to need you to carry us to eight wins this season. You’re resilient as hell and as tough as they come.  We may be critical of you at times, but we’re grateful for the wins you’ve provided and the wins you’ll provide, and we want to say thanks for grinding every day and leaving it all out there on the field.  We know you had a bad game last week, and we fully expect that you’ll bounce back against the Yellow Jackets. Hail to Pitt.

Now, for the fans and POV’erts out there, lets get down to an honest-to-goodness quarterback discussion.

As we’ve established in the post-Miami discourse, Kenny did not play very well on Saturday.  In fact, he had his worst game of the season.

Kenny Pickett 2019 Through Week 9
R. Hefner

This was somewhat to be expected, given the fact that Miami’s defense was the most talented we’d faced since Penn State, and Pitt never gets up for Miami they way they get up for the hated Nittany Lions.

Still, Kenny had shown improvement in three straight games and there was some cause for optimism.  So much for that.

There is speculation that Pickett could still have been nursing an injured shoulder or two, and given that he was taken into the locker rooms twice versus Syracuse this is likely true.  Kenny’s October splits would seem to indicate this as well.  (Although if you remove the Miami game October is probably pretty close to September.)

Kenny Pickett 2019 Through Week 9 - Month Splits
ESPN

The bottom line is that if you go by QB rating, Pickett is the third worst quarterback in the ACC, even though he’s got the most attempts.  Interestingly enough the QB right above Pickett is “Preseason Heisman Trophy Candidate” Bryce Perkins.  Just goes to show you how wild and woolly college football can be (or how utterly useless preseason predictions can be…)

ACC QB's Week 9
R. Hefner

Getting back to passer rating, some of the ugly 115.3 is Pickett’s fault.  His inability to put touch on any type of pass is well documented.  If he had such ability, his completion % probably goes up by a couple of points and his touchdown total probably increases slightly as well, along with a bump in yardage and passer rating.  That is 100% on Pickett and we can only hope he evolves this aspect of his game in the offseason.

Some of the 115 passer rating is also is due to Kenny’s receivers.  While it’s been speculated the Pickett does not exactly throw a catchable ball…whatever that means…it has also been documented that many on-target passes have gone in-and-out of the hands of the intended receiver.  While I can’t get to the “targets” stat without paying for it, it’s pretty safe to assume that Pitt’s receivers have dropped an average of four balls per game, and will probably continue to do so.  Extrapolated over the course of a regular season, that’s 48 passes dropped.  At 10.2 yards per receptions, that’s 489.6 yards of lost offense, not counting drives that would have been extended because passes were dropped on third down.  I realize that no receiver is going to catch 100% of the balls thrown to him (unless his last name is Fitzgerald…), but what if Pitt were able to cut the number of drops in half?  When you factor in extended drives and additional pass attempts, you’re looking at probably 30 YPG of offense and an additional 360 yards on the season.  Probably an additional three points per game on average as well, if not six.

Of course this is all speculation, but right now Kenny’s stats (assuming he starts and finished the final four games) project out to the following:

  • 495 attempts
  • 295 completions
  • 2997 yards
  • 14 TD
  • 10 Int

If his receivers caught half of the balls they dropped (and are projected to drop) during the course of the season, Pickett’s stat line would look more like this:

  • 532 attempts (+3 per game)
  • 320 completions (+2 per game)
  • 3357 yards (+30 per game)
  • 17 TD (+1 per every three games)
  • 10 Int (unchanged)
  • +1 in the win column (i.e. Miami)

While that still probably puts Pickett in the bottom third of NCAA quarterbacks when it comes to QB rating, it is a far cry from last year:

  • 310 attempts
  • 180 completions
  • 1969 yards
  • 12 TD
  • 6 Int

It’s also a nice bump over what he’s currently projecting.  Just imagine what Whipple can do when he has time to groom a quarterback into his system and develop some wide receivers who are as consistent as he needs them to be.

But again, this is speculation.  And it does us no good to live in the fantasy-world of “what if”.  After all, we are Pitt fans, and we are used to hard doses of reality.

And the reality is this:  For better or worse, the Pitt coaching staff believes that Kenny Pickett gives them the best chance to win.  The frustration of course, is that he is what he is. (Stats best viewed on desktop or tablet.  Or click here to view at ESPN)

Kenny is…

Better on the road than at home:

A KP Home Away Splits

Best in the second quarter.  Terrible in the third.  Just good enough in the fourth:

A KP Quarter Stats

Pretty good in the red zone between the 10 and the 20.  Pretty bad when in between Pitt’s own 20 and 40.  Mediocre at best when inside the opponent’s 10 yard line.

A KP Field Position Stats

Worst on second down.  Surprisingly good on fourth.

A KP Down Splits

Somehow better on 3rd and long than he is on 3rd and medium and 3rd and short.

Somehow better on 2nd and long than he is on 2nd and medium.

Amazingly bad on 3rd (and 4th) and short.

A KP Down and Distance Splits

Again, all previous stats from ESPN.com – please contact them with any complaints about font size.  Click this link if you want a better look.

So looking at these stats, and thinking back to some game film, the one common thread  is that Kenny panics, and also he sometimes throws too hard.  And yet he’s clearly very clutch in some key situations.  It’s almost like the only way to get Kenny out of his own head is to put him in an extremely high-pressure situation.  And of course circling back to the drops issue, you have to ask how many drops came on 3rd and less than eight?  At least a half dozen, and mostly from the Tight Ends.  Still…Kenny can’t control the drops, but if he can figure out a way to get a little more consistent is some of these non-pressure situations, our offense will be much better for it.  My half-crazy-Pitt-fan advice:  “Get thee to a sports psychologist Kenny, and quickly too!”

Hail to Pitt

Michaelangelo Monteleone

130 thoughts on “The QB Corner – Week 9

  1. I don’t like these statistics. I’m calling them fake news! I’m stating alternative facts from now on, from here on out Pickett is going to pass for at least 3 TDs a game, two thirds of those will occur in the 3rd quarter & we’re going to win out to go 9-3 in the regular season. Many people are saying so.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. The stats say the probability of pitt winning out is around 30 percent. Odds of winning the Coastal around 20 percent.

      Knowing history I’ll go with Pitt splitting the last four games. Another 7 win season. A bowl win makes 8 assuming Pitt can actually win one for a change.

      Close to the nine win Narduzzi ceiling. You know Walt was let go because although he resurrected the program he was perceived after 8 years and rightfully so that he couldn’t get the much needed breakthrough season.

      I don’t need another three years of narduzzi to know he’s not the coach if you want ten win seasons.

      It’s all about what you expect and are happy with. I’m not happy with 8 win seasons and crappy bowl losses and no final rankings

      I want consistent top 20-25 with the occasional shot at a top 10. I think that’s realistic and not too much to ask.

      The thing holding Pitt back is the coach. It’s not the yellow seats. It’s not playing off campus. It’s not lack of elite talent in the wpial. It’s not an urban campus with cold winters. It’s not for lack of money.

      Yes all those variables help but the main constraint is always coaching and it’s the easiest to fix. You make the right coaching hire and you get results. Look at Pitts volleyball and soccer coaches. They play in sub par facilities with little fan support yet Pitt is ranked number two in volleyball and men’s soccer just shut out the number one team in college.

      I have a list of 5 coaches. Heather can see my vetted list if she promises me a feasibility study.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Get the offense clicking and keep the D where it is and Pitt wins 9 consistently Tex.

        That’s mostly on Duz as he couldn’t keep a competent OC around for long…we paid the penalty for him learning on the job.

        This is whipple year one. He gets one more to show what he can do. If he’s still averaging 20 PPG next year then the whole lot can be re evaluated

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      2. Maybe she will give you a “yellow” jacket !!! You speak a lot of truth and with passion. Saw your mom adn dad from a distance at the tailgate but they were gone before I had a chance to meet them..

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      3. App State coach #1 on my list.

        Couldn’t agree more. In 5 years there’s still no hype or optimism for Pitt Football. Hire the right coach…. problem solved.

        You all will agree after the coming loss to GA Tech!

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  2. Maestro / Pitt-Cocks, great data (again). No doubt that KP is no threat in the Heisman race. And if I had one play do-over from the this past game, it would not be the 4th and 1 or the last Miami TD … it would be KP’s 2nd interception. If he just throws it away … there is a great chance that Miami doesn’t score its 1st TD. And in a game like this, as we are well aware, the difference between a FG and TD looms large.

    An accumulation of over a half years data doesn’t lie, Pitt’s passing leaves much to be desired … as does its running attack. And the one common thing for both is the offensive line.

    Stats don’t figure in the amount of pressures a QB is under. Or the number of drops. A QB rating factors in greatly the number of passes vs yards gained and TDs …. and when you have to supplement the poor running attack with a short passing game, the QBR is going to suffer.

    A good running attack makes up for a lot of ills. It keeps the ball away from the opposition and accumulates time off the clock when the ball is in your possession. Whipple has done a decent job using the short passing game but when it nears the goal line (apparently) that is all thrown out the door as there is less space the defense has to cover.

    Obviously KP must do better as well as his receivers, but IMO we can only hope that the inexperienced OL improves. The good thing is that hopefully we have already played the best defenses on our schedule (UVa, PSU, Miami) … we shall see.

    Liked by 3 people

      1. Wow, those are some interesting correlations. Going back in my memory, I think I remember quite a few drops in the Virginia game too, including one long one to Mack that was followed up by a pick.

        Granted, Pickett was throwing on a laser beam in that game. I think he’s gotten a tiny bit more touch since then. Hopefully those defensive stats pan out and we have success the rest of the way.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. By those numbers, Pitt’s offense didn’t do a bad job against Miami. Their season average is 301 yards against; Pitt gained 322.
        Obviously, something has to be done about the red zone, and goal-to-go offense. But the foundation of a good offense is there.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. BTW, despite the last 2 games, Wisconsin being rated #1 in defense should come as no surprise … it also leads the NCAA in Time of Possession

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  3. Another excellent collaboration by RH and MM.
    All that info will take some ciphering…

    Puts some hard numbers on things that have been evident, like our third quarter struggles. Our 3rd quarter sack total suggests our guys – and our Coaches, are not able to pick up whatever pass-rush changes our opponents come up with at the half — probably more blitzing, but just a guess…

    What’s bothering me the most about KP right now is that decision he made against Miami to throw a pass off his back foot, across his body, and into double coverage. All things he’s been coached not to do. You can’t let the desire to make a play overtake what you’ve been coached to do.

    We can’t know for sure, but that single extremely poor decision by KP likely cost us that game…

    Go Pitt.

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  4. Let’s just tell it like it is…Kenny would be on the bench if he didn’t collude with Narduzzi in the hiring of Mark Whipple. Just like Narduzzi would be fired by now if he didn’t collude in the hiring of Heather Luke.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Heather owes her job in part to him hence the nice extension as a thank you.

      Only at pitt does one allow the head coach to hire his boss.

      Only at pitt does one allow stupid search firms run by old buddies to find guys like Stallings.

      Only at pitt do you have your quarterback bless the hire of the new OC.

      Does anyone else see there is something rotten here. That someone doesn’t have any clothes?

      I’m embarrassed by how Pitt runs things.

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      1. Tex
        I give you credit. You show up to comment after a win or loss, unlike some that just show up to spew negativity after a loss. You add good and sometimes funny content to this blog. I like to hear all sides, even if I almost always disagree with you. LOL.

        Liked by 3 people

      1. Not sure if this was for me OC. My comment was pure sarcasm. I was repeating two of my favorite recent comments from fellow fans melting down over the Miami loss.

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        1. That makes a lot more sense. I misread your comments as well. Typically I put (sarcasm) in mine just to be safe . 93% of communication is face expression and verbal tone after all…

          Liked by 1 person

  5. Good article. Yeah Kenny really was disappointing on Saturday. His first half performance was disastrous. I just don’t understand what he was doing. He’s a veteran and should never be making those mistakes . I Give him credit for playing a good second half but it doesn’t excuse the mistakes he made

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  6. Hey Tx, and you want to coach the PITT football team? I remind you that Heather would be your boss and you weren’t involved in her hiring.

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    1. I would not take the job with her as boss. The program will only go so far with someone making $400k and a compliance background.

      Therefore, I’d have to win over the BOT and force Gallagher to rebuild that phony front porch.

      In my dreamscape or alternative universe, the BOT would be split into much smaller boards. One for athletics and one for academics. A 10 member athletics board comprised of no Nitters would hire me as a ‘business consultant’ and acting COO.

      I’d lure Tressel away from YSU and make him CEO of athletics. He would also act as a mentor and groom the next AD. I’d hire Candle as my coach from Toldeo. He has an offensive mind and is from the cradle of great coaches…the MAC.

      I’d conduct a feasibility study for a MPC on campus. Victory Heights would be pushed back since Pitt needs to think even bigger and actually help programs generate higher revenues so Pitt can get out of their budget deficit running at over $10M each year. Sorry volleyball and wrestling but you’re doing just fine playing in that dump for now…be patient a little longer.

      Pitt football would be top 10 in 3 years. Directors Cup ranking at 50 within 3 years (top third of P-5 schools). Pitt athletics would make a profit. The word mediocrity would be banned and SOP would be dead.

      Liked by 1 person

        1. you need to see the fit and potential in people.
          Pitt has advantages that these mac schools dont from budget to conference affiliation to recruiting footprint
          look at the pattern of success
          look at his coaching tree
          Candle has won bowl games and 11 wins
          Narduzzi?

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            1. its about fit and potential. he would thrive with the money and resources at Pitt. young guy with good coaching tree and offensive mind.

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          1. here’s what Toledo has done the past 3 games

            Bowling Green 20 Toledo 7
            Ball State 52 Toledo 14
            Toledo 37 E Mich 34 in OT. EMU is 4-4

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          1. I got you Tx, I’ve been a PITT fan for over 55 years. I’ve seen bad times then good times then bad times then some good times etc etc, I don’t know what happened but I just don’t get all down and fussed up like I use to and some good buddies like yourself and my friend Dan does. Trust me on this, my love for PITT and especially PITT football has not diminished one bit. In fact I think it’s greater than ever. Hire back “the steve” and you’ll see my passion explode.

            Liked by 1 person

  7. Pickett’s biggest shortcoming is NOT being competent at throwing the ball away when he just doesn’t have an open receiver available. Kenny is not a game changer QB. He should be an adequate game manager at this point in his career though. Attempting to force passes into double/triple coverage & taking unnecessary sacks because he loses his concentration and fails to throw it away are simply unacceptable tendencies that have to be eliminated from his repertoire.

    BTW, I don’t think I’ve ever read a previous post from Shirley, but she’s hilarious!

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Running out of bounce while losing yards, instead of throwing it away, seems like a very simple concept.

      I see QB after QB do this in college and the pros. Mason Rudolph did it last night and took on a tackler at the same time. Taking a head shot. WTF is wrong with these guys.

      A QB trying to make something out of nothing with a bad throw is a little bit more tolerable unless it happens over and over and over again. Then it is just stupid.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. Kp is Kp and at this late date, he is not likely to change. Some players have good instincts for the game (see Paris Ford) and some do not. Kenny should be playing short stop instead of qb, he doesn’t pickup on the nuances of the qb position and can’t put touch on his passes when needed.

    The more I see of Nards coaching, the more I agree with Upitt ,ikr, Campbell or PJ Fleck would have been better options.

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    1. Instincts. Good word and good call.

      I agree I liked Fleck and Campbell as well. Wonder if they even got a look.

      The “advantage” of Nard is that even if he starts to win consistently (9-10 games that is) there is a good chance he stays in Pittsburgh because he’s got roots in the WPA/Youngstown region.

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      1. If you make the right hire and create the right culture, a HC may not leave. and even if he does, you are left with a very good organization and program that other coaches would find very attractive.

        Right now, Pitt is an attractive program for any assistant coach. and most head coaches at non-P5 schools would also find it attractive. 4th highest spend in football among acc schools. a very weak and winnable division. plenty of recruiting talent within 500 miles.

        I dont think Pitt would have a tough time replacing a Narduzzi that consistently reached his 9 win ceiling. But its year 5 now and he’s yet to achieve that mark.

        There are coaches out there that can consistently get you 10 wins. The AD’s job is to find them. I’ve already blurted out one on my vetted list of 5.

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  9. My only objection to this writeup is I really don’t think we know for sure that KP is the best we got. Until we get a fair chance to see our other 3 QB’s in action I guess we will just have to assume so. Right now it would appear that both Whipple and Narduzzi think he is best we got.—-When Whipple was at U of Mass I believe he used several QB’s in the same season.

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  10. I am with jrnpitt! I do not think we know if Pickett is our best option at QB. Sure he is a gritty individual with a lot of heart but is he the best we have at the position? This year we will not get the chance to see if that is true or not. Hopefully at the end of the season Whipple will sit down and look over Pickett’s body of work and discuss the situation with him. If Whipple is honest, he will tell him he is going to have a competition for the position next year. If Pickett decides to enter the transfer portal, so be it. Patti and Beville deserve a chance.

    One problem all our quarterbacks face is the ineptitude of our receivers. Our wide receiver coach needs to stress the basic of how to catch a football. Don’t get me even started about our tight ends!!

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    1. I agree next year should be a completion.

      The risk is that if Kenny loses then we only have two scholarship qb’s on the roster. That may be enough…or it may not

      Liked by 1 person

    2. John serious question and not trying to be a smart ass one bit. If Pickett is delivering a catch-able ball/pass and the receiver is not catching it, who’s to blame for that? PITT’s offense has become the dog chasing it’s tail.

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      1. The problem with Kenny Pickett is that he throws interceptions and makes bad decisions. I agree there is nothing he can do about the dropped balls. Look at the Miami game, why did he run out of bounds and take a loss when he could have just thrown the ball out of bounds? That was a no brainer. He has his moments for the good but overall he is a slightly below average quarterback. He is a run/pass option quarterback and that is type of system in which he would excel. We are running a west coast offense which requires quick reads and I do not believe that is Pickett’s strong suit. I do not doubt his toughness or his heart.

        Opening up the quarterback position may still result in him being the qb next year if he is truly the best we have. If I was Whipple, I would have Patti practicing this week with the first team several days at the end of practice. I would then draw up a list of canned plays for him to run and use him in the second or third quarter against Georgia Tech to give Pickett a rest.

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        1. John in SC, I’m all in for playing the QB giving PITT the best chance to win…. as I’m sure Narduzzi and Whipple are. I’m also in for packages for the backup QB’s to run scripted plays. That’s a great idea.

          Liked by 2 people

      2. They have to let the other QBs compete for the job next year. He’s everything MM said about him in the beginning of this post, but he is average and we need better. I thought by now he would have smoothed out some of his flaws we talk about here so much, but it doesn’t appear he is progressing enough to take that next step.

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        1. The X factor is what Kenny can do in the offseason. Pushing him is the best way to unlock his potential. And his issues aren’t physical. It’s almost like they need to throw him in a yoga class or send him to a zen Buddhist camp for a week or something to learn how to quiet his mind and unlock his physical potential.

          Liked by 1 person

            1. Probably. I think you have to give him one more offseason under whip though.

              Look at bill still jr year vs senior year

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  11. Let’s let the season play out and see where PITT lands. The trouble with the Narduzzi detractors is, when “King Pat” does anything good, they get the hell out of the kitchen. It yackety yack but don’t talk back. I’m here win or lose and I give Tx credit for standing by his comments. Of course along with many other loyal POVer’s. Shirley you should all know this by now? 🙂

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  12. Anyone know anything on the progress or lack thereof with Davis Beville? Is he going to be the next Chad Voytik/Pat Bostick big star bust or do we have the next Nate Peterman on our hands? I’m really surprised he has seen no action this year with the new redshirt rule/Patti struggling in the Deleware game.

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    1. Sounds like Beville’s job is to run the scout team and try to simulate the opponent’s offense… course he’s also getting exposed to Pitt’s offense.

      I find it amusing that some people think that the coaches stay with a player even though they know a backup is better…

      Coaches get 12 chances each season to prove themselves – and maintain their job. Hard as it might be to believe, coaches want to win, and agonize over losses, even more than we do…

      Go Pitt.

      Liked by 1 person

  13. Tx, you are one real piece of work but entertaining as hell. Your plan is very articulate and well thought out. It’s just not feasible. LOL! I think a better plan would be to try somehow to become a BOT member and work your way down. Start at the top, we all know what flows down after that.

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  14. Pitt Football under Narduzzi is a work in process! Most experts predicted a 5-7 or 6-6 season this year…we loose our top two defensive linemen, have a new OC, a inexperienced O line, an unknown running attack and a erratic QB. After 8 games, the team is 5-3, and all losses were due to turnovers and two were due to the HC not being willing to take a risk. The defense is rated in the top 15 this season. We should finish 3-1 for the remaining games, and go to a bowl game (who knows what that result will be). Disappointed as I was in the Miami loss, the team is better than the 5-7 prediction I had for them. 75% of the starters should be back next season with an easier OOC schedule. KP may still be hurt, who knows…if his receivers caught the ball better, maybe he wouldn’t be pressing. The rest of the Coastal Teams are all as inconsistent as Pitt is…calling for coaches to be fired and changing the QB is over reacting in my opinion! Wreck the Rambling Wreck!

    Liked by 1 person

  15. KP is what he is and certainly better on average compared to last year… lots of repeated mistakes have stopped drives limiting the chance to improve stats and his QBR- some of that is on him, some on the receivers, OL and coaching…. lotsa reasons…. coaches must think he is the best and I have to go along with their assessment- they are with these guys everyday.. I am not paid to make those decisions-I am a blogger… now of you need a joint replacement or spine surgery and live in NE North Carolina then I have knowledge and am full of it(Fran tells me that)

    Saturday is another chance for redemption for our wide/slot receivers and QB (leaving the TE’s out on purpose-they are bad)

    KP is limed by his lack of consistency whether and that goes for his physical and mental game aspects of his play… He is a warrior and a gamer. I see us winning 3 out of the next 4… 2-2 at worst… then off to a bowl. My best hope is we improve on the O and have a couple of balanced games where we score and end the season on a positive note the creates some national vibe moving forward… we need to stick with Whip … hopefully we finish strong and see and up-tick with O recruiting…damn we were getting there then last Saturday happened!!!!!!!!!

    Liked by 2 people

  16. Collude? Kenny picked Whipple as OC? Narduzzi forced Lyke as our AD? You talk about fake news! Where are the facts to back up these wild statements! I like Kenny, Narduzzi, and especially Lyke.

    We are going in the right direction a little at a time. Love the improvement in minor sports. These kids are real scholar students. Love the academic rating improvement.

    Was there a statistic to account for the dropped passes. TE’s and WR’s maybe an area you need 4-5 stars.

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  17. Robert… right on about needing quality TEs and receivers… really need some peeps who can take the lid off of the D… TEs just aren’t there and they shouldn’t be as no one wanted to commit here based on Watson’s work- heck, PITT went so far as to re- recruit the de-commited JC TE Koontz informing him he would be a blocking TE… craziest damn thing I have seen as he de- commited because he wanted to catch….

    You comment on “ stats on the drops” I don’t know about stats but I know what I am seeing… remember Ryan Switzer vs PITT… everything stuck to his hands…

    Liked by 1 person

    1. in 2013, Switzer had 2 punt returns for TDs vs Pitt … 65 and 61 yds (Pitt lost by 7)

      in 2014, he caught TD pass vs Pitt … 63 yards (Pitt lost by 5)

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  18. Turbusky and Switzer connect on several big time throws to beat us in the closing 2nds in Chapel Hill … think it was ‘16…. they always seem to come from behind to beat us…

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  19. Does anyone remember when Jackie Sherrill used to kickoff in both halves because he had so much confidence in his outstanding defenses? We now have a very good, perhaps outstanding, defense. It’s a shame Coach Narduzzi doesn’t have this same confidence to run a sneak on 4th and goal from the one. Our best offensive lineman is Jim Morrissey and we rarely run sneaks. Worst that can happen is we put our opponents’ backs on the goal line against the nation’s best sacking defense.

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  20. Is there any way we can combine this year’s Defense with the Connor/Peterman Offense, or even last year’s Offense? Maybe we get both sides in line at the same time in the future.

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  21. GT might be the weakest team on the schedule. IMHO sit KP for the first half due to poor play and/or sore shoulder. Give Patti the start and give him the first half to get the offense rolling. If he doesn’t get the job done, insert KP for the second half.

    Grizz

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    1. North Carolina was Pitt’s weakest team on the schedule last year and look what happened.
      GT beat Miami while actually scoring touchdowns..

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  22. I think a point being lost here is that KP did not have a competent QB coach or OC last year. This is his first year slinging the ball like a college QB should. He will make mistakes.

    Perkins, Trevor Lawrence and Dukes QB under the great David Cutcliff have more INTs than Pickett. He isn’t doing bad. The drops are not an excuse because he has clearly missed some throws, but dang, they have had an impact on almost every game.

    Nakia Griffin-Stonehands can not be thrown to again.

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  23. I’m stealing this from a post at the Lair, “the Pitt offense is capable of 4 to 6 wins on the season and the Pitt defense is capable of 10 to 11 wins on the season”. And folks that just about sums it up IMO the situation we find ourselves in.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. How about we hypothetically say combine this years defense with the the 2016 Pitt offense and we have one heck of a team. Just dreaming !

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  24. 2019 After 8 Games:

    Stars:
    O: Twyman, Jones, Ford, Jackson, Hamlin, Mathis, Johnson
    D: Ffrench

    Above Average:
    O: Morrissey, Warren, Hargrove, Mack, Kessman
    D: Watts, Morgan, Stocker

    Average
    O: Pickett, Sibley, V. Davis, AJ Davis, Carter, Jacques-Louis, Kradel, Mathews, Wheeler, Van Lynn, Carrigan
    D: Brighwell, Phil Campbell, Bright, Pine, Reynolds

    Below Average:
    O: Ulizio, Houy, Griffin-Stewart, Gragg
    D:

    Am I missing anyone?

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    1. How is Pickett average when he is the #102 an in the ncaa and 3rd worst in the acc?

      Wheeler? What has he shown to show he is averaged?

      Kradel actually grades out above average (for the one game I’ve seen a grade)

      Kessman was below average until two weeks ago

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      1. Wheeler needs to hit the weight room and lose a bunch of LBS and try a new position……… at Tight End! That’s where he played in high school.

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        1. Yes but you have him as above average right?

          Picking nits but I’d say average with the arrow pointing up. He’ll finish at above average if he stays on this trajectory for sure

          Like

      1. I agree, but figured it this way. You usually only notice OT when they get beat and I have not noticed him except for a holding penalty. Not bad for a young guy starting his first year at left tackle.

        Like

  25. Michaelangelo, what does it cost to receive “target stat’s”? Do you think there is a guy watching every pass, of every game, every week??? And they are able to sell this pierce of info and make money? Talk about keeping attentive.

    I’m impressed by Rich Hebner’s and ESPN’s charts.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I didn’t look into it – stopped when it said “subscribe” but yes apparently someone is tracking it.

      There is one website that tracks targets for free but it only posts the top 50 receivers and they only do it after the season is over

      Like

  26. Richard and Maestro – thanks again for another good read. I have somewhat of a disdain for the QBR as it fails to take into account the supporting cast.

    I’m envious of those of you who are so confident in your views of our QB’s ability.
    When I try to assess it, I’m held back back by the OL woes and a pitiful group of TE’s.

    Dan – tell you what…if Pitt goes 0-4, I will meet you at the Pete and we can set up a tailgate/picket line to call for Duzz’s firing. I will bring the scotch and I imagine we would not be alone. Having said that, I think your prognostication is a bit dour.

    Like

    1. You’re on Joel I’ve looked at Tech and they are the only team we even have a chance to beat.
      Already wagered getting 9 pts.
      Line today is 7….4 by Gametime.

      Pitt is going to get their asses handed to them on Saturday.
      Tech an upcoming and well coached team.

      Like

  27. Wait til next year. I have thirty eight years of experience waiting for next year. I get more grumpy with each passing year. Just wait, youngins! At some point you will be more critical when 30 years pass and you wake up one day and say “what the hell happened to my fandome”. Just ask Pirate fans!

    Like

    1. Pitt may get a volleyball championship this year. There is hope if you follow other sports. You really need to until Narduzzi is gone.

      Like

  28. At least the Pirates make a profit and don’t finish dead last.

    Pitt is more poorly run. That’s hard for most to believe but it’s true based on fiscal and field results.

    Like

    1. Pitt has been poorly run since 1982. What other school quit wanting to be a football powerhouse?

      The BoT literally felt like it was wrong to have the run that Pitt had from 1976-81 that it decided it wasn’t worth the aggravation and hired a Pitt man on the cheap in 1982.

      It has been a cluster F ever since. Two coaches who were actually decent enough should have been on the sidelines from 1986-2014 — Gottfried and Wannstedt. Wanny would have been perfect taking over after he was fired by the Bears. Right around the time when the football arms race was beginning, which we all know the Pitt BoT wanted no part of competing in.

      So have a Pitt guy who was a face for the school and could recruit decent enough be your coach. Oh, wait. Pitt did do this and F’d that up because some nobody wrote a poorly investigated SI article and Nordy hit the panic button and blew up football this decade.

      Like

  29. The Pirates make a profit because they get money from the powerhouses that win every year….oh wait, so does Pitt through bowl revenue sharing and tv sharing. Yet Pitt cannot make a profit. Luckily, we are compliant. That is worth gazillians so you can keep your powerhouse going. Anybody else see how backwards that is?

    “We must protect being 64th of all 65 contenders”. Good gravy! Next year, is almost here.

    Hey Tex finance, tex mex, tex soccer camp, tex fill in the blank – you are a bit off. We do finish just about last every year in director cup. C’mon man, get your texas facts right! LOL

    Like

  30. Sorry I missed the fun, getting my last swings in today, beautiful day on the course.

    I think you are being way to hard on Pickett. he is not throwing to Larry Fitzgerald or Tyler Boyd, certainly not Holtzman or Orndoff. He has a very shaky o-line in front of him, and a less than average running game.

    If you haven’t figured it out, I am saying that football is a team sport and while I am not saying KP is great, he is good enough, and if surrounded by a better cast could be pretty good.

    He threw one terrible pass in the last game and the boo birds are back. They were out at Heinz last night until a couple of great catches shut them up good.

    When was the last time you saw a Panther make a great catch? Mack made a few this year but has all but disappeared in the last two games, probably hurting. Heck we would be happy if a tight end made a catch let alone a difficult one.

    In any case funny how it only took one loss to get the fire Narduzzi and bench KP bandwagon rolling again.
    Second string QB’s are always in demand by some fans. I think if the coaches had confidence in ours he would be playing over a guy with a sore shoulder. Of course you guys know more about QB’s than Whipple, who makes his living making those decisions.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Good enough is not good enough. Look at the teams in the top 25 and some that aren’t. Most of them have game changers at Qb. Without a game changer you need a stud running back. Again we don’t have that either.

      Like

  31. What’s been amazing and distressful this season — in addition to the drops and the lack of “wow” catches — has been how many of the completions are bobbled a time or two before gaining possession…

    That’s been far too common. I’m wondering if we need to bring in an optometrist!

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 2 people

  32. Receiving corps ranking by pro football focus. 3.25 drops per game, so I’m a little off but in the ballpark.

    PITTSBURGH PANTHERS

    Much like App State, the Pittsburgh receiving corps has done a great job in contested situations, hauling in the country’s fifth-best contested catch rate at 58.3%. WR Taysir Mack is tied for the national lead with 16 contested catches himself and Maurice Ffrench is tied for second with 17 broken tackles after the catch this season. Mack and Ffrench have combined for the majority of the damage done through the air, and they’ve been extremely sharp in doing so. However, outside of that duo, the Panthers haven’t had much sustained success and actually have 26 drops as a team, holding back their talented 1-2 duo in Mack and Ffrench.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. So if it bounces off their hands a’la griffin stewart does that count as a drop? “Have it in their grasp” can be highly subjective

        Like

        1. Coach Beatty and Salem are partly responsible. I know they can’t catch the ball for the players, but at some point you make changes to who is playing. If you keep trying to fit a square peg into a round hole over and over again, you don’t blame the peg.

          Many of those drops were first downs. You are throwing away possessions, time of possession, momentum, filed position, etc. Hurting the QB rating 🙂

          Like

          1. I agree. In order for the west coast system to work you need to complete 67% of your passes. KP is at 60% with a 9% drop rate.

            Getting him up to 65 – 67 % probably puts him in the middle of the acc pack as far as qbr

            Liked by 1 person

  33. The first thing you learn as a receiver is to catch the ball with your hands. If you let it get into your pads, it will most likely bounce and be uncatchable.

    KP throws nose down bullets from 8 feet away. Griffin Stewart has let every ball get into his pads.

    This is easy ABC stuff coaches should teach from Day 1. You draw the conclusions

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  34. Dan, I don’t know if I agree with the nose down un-catchable pass by Pickett although that may be true. What I do agree with and every other PITT fan is the KP really lacks touch on his short passes and he has missed some longer pass plays this year as well.

    Another point is that every single team has throws that are flat out dropped. Maybe PITT a few more than some others, yet somehow I feel PITT’s margin for error is higher than most teams. I think it’s because of a suspect running game?? OK, now we are back to the nose down passes by Pickett. Still not buying it. I’ve watched too many passes I would have caught 15 years ago if not yesterday.

    Why doesn’t PITT have a designated QB coach that sticks around for more than a year or two? Actually I don’t think they one at all?

    Like

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