Stats brought to you by Richard Hefner – aka Pitt-Cocks Fan

Yesterday, we asked what would happen if Kenny Pickett was forced out of the Miami game, because the Syracuse.com power ranking article astutely pointed out that Kenny is “starting to show some wear and tear from Pitt’s one dimensional offense”.  Lets take a look at what Kenny has done so far this season and what might happen if the unthinkable does happen.

First, the basics.  Here are Kenny’s stats YTD, broken down by game.

Kenny Pickett Passing Stats 2019_wk 8.jpg

A couple of takeaways here.  Fist of all, Kenny statistically is still ranked towards the bottom of the NCAA.  However, he’s shown improvement over his last three games.  YPA is up in each game.  YPC is up in each game.  Passer rating has gone from 100.2 to 133.6.  That’s a 33% improvement.  His overall passer rating rank has improved from 109th to 90th.  That’s a at 17% improvement.  The data would suggest that needle is pointing up for Kenny.

Also it’s worth noting that Pickett threw a season-low 33 attempts against Syracuse.  He handed the ball off 38 times, and the running backs gained 151 yards.  Other teams have had varying amounts of success throwing the ball against the Hurricanes.  Here is a breakdown of what ACC quarterbacks have done.

ACC QB's against Miami - Week8 2019.gif

UNC’s Howell and VT’s Hooker clearly had success with the long ball.  Just look at those YPC.  (17.1 for Howell, adn 18.4 for Hooker.)  Whipple could decide to attack Miami in the same way, but in order to do that successfully Kenny needs to continue to work on his touch passing (put some air under the ball!), and the line needs to be able to give him time.  That’s a 50/50 proposition at best.

Perkins played dink and dunk and couldn’t put points on the board.  He was also sacked five times, so again, there is the whole pass protection factor.  Note also that Perkins threw the ball 42 times.  Howell and Herndon threw 24 and 20 times, respectively.

Graham – a true freshman QB – had the support of a very strong running game (45 att / 207 yards).  Can Pitt do this?  Running for 145 against Syracuse is one thing.  Running for 145 against Miami is something completely different.  Running for 200 against anybody is pretty much out of the question.

Still, Pitt is going to have to try to establish the run.  Two ACC teams have beaten Miami with a combination of a solid running game and the long ball.  UNC ran for 97 yards.  Virginia Tech ran for 150.  This in turn set up a deep passing game (off of play action I would assume).  UNC scored 28 and Tech scored 42.

So even if Pitt is able to run on Miami (unlikely…), you’d have to think that Kenny is still going to be asked to throw the ball at least thirty times., if not more.  If Pitt can’t establish the run, Kenny is going throw 40 times or more.  Either way, he’s going to take some hits in the process.  What happens if …?

rFr Nick Patti will be the first off the bench of course, and we’ve got a one-game body of work by which to judge him.

Nick Patti Delaware Stats.jpg

Not too bad…kind of similar to Pickett’s game against the ‘Cuse.

Miami’s defensive line, on the other hand, is in a completely different league than the Delaware Blue Hens.  If Patti has to see extended action against Miami will his stat line look more like KP against Virginia?  (87 QBR, 1 TD, 2 INT).  It very well may.  On the positive side, Patti has a game’s worth of experience in Whip’s system (Kenny did not when he played against UVA).  On the negative side, throwing Patti in against the ‘Canes would be a much sterner test than Delaware.  Still, Patti has some scrambling skills which could come in handy.  And he’s cool under pressure (anybody remember the UCF touchdown?).  On the other hand, Patti has also thrown some bad balls right to opposing defenders, and he’s lucky that he’s only had one of the intercepted.  It’s probably safe to say that Nick could use another year or two of seasoning before anyone feels really good about him playing against ACC competition, but we know he’ll give it all he’s got if he’s tapped to go in.

So yes, my extremely hot take (that’s sarcasm folks) is that Pitt has to find a way to keep Kenny Pickett in one piece on Saturday, and also give him a little bit of time to throw.  It’s the key to the game, and the key to the season.  I don’t know if they do that by keeping a tight end in to block, and a running back, or by calling plays where the back releases out as a safety valve so Kenny can throw before he’s hit, or by working on the screen game (which been pretty ineffective all season), or by doing something else, but Pitt has to do something.  Because if they don’t protect Kenny it’s going to be Pahtti-time on the Northside and I have a feeling that’s not the kind of “pah-ty” Pitt fans are wanting to attend.  Heyooo!

 

 

 

 

155 thoughts on “The QB Corner – Week 8

  1. everything about this games indicate a low scoring game between 2 pretty good defenses and 2 not-so-good offenses. So of course, the final score will be 38-34.

    Miami just lost to what was thought to be the worst team in the ACC, but just 2 short weeks ago, they beat UVa. I’m afraid it is time for them to show up again. It may well come down to turnovers and/or special teams

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  2. did Watson try any shovel passes, and were they successful? Can’t remember. I agree that a shovel pass may work since it would be a surprise.

    But one thing I am disappointed in is how unsuccessful screen passes have been so far. Watson never did them but I thought it would be something that we would see this year. I believe we had 2 good ones vs PSU, one for a short TD … but overall, TP has had to throw the ball the ball away the last couple times screens were tried. Don’t know if players weren’t good in selling it since it has to appear to be an average dropback pass. Not sure what this has to do with shovel passes but again, it’s worth a try … I think

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  3. PITT used the shovel pass a little last year but the plays did not go anywhere and PITT abandoned it. Good call Fran, that play could make a comeback this weekend.

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  4. Richard – great write up. The data gathering, the analysis of that data, and the conclusions drawn are all very well done. I really enjoy your posts. Keep ’em coming.

    You are kinda like MM’s defensive team. The longer you are on the field, the more rest MM can get, and the fresher he is toward the later stages of the “game”!

    Thanks!!

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Sorry – Mike wrote the article, I just provided the stats. Anyone who remembers the two articles (or even my comments) I wrote, is that I am not as articulate as Mike or even 95% of the population.

      Thanks Bruce.

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  5. Good collaboration between MM and Richard.

    Some of those stats surprise me – I mean other teams doing so well against the Miami defense. I remember we scored 3 lousy points last season.

    Even though others have had success, I expect us to struggle because of pass-protection issues.

    I think we will need to go to trickerazation

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    1. Hit the wrong button…

      Yeah, trickerazation…

      I propose some plays were we have both KP and Patti on the field together. Like what the nits did with Clifford and McSorley…

      Go Pitt.

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  6. I will read the above article later.

    First, I want to talk about Mark Whipple. He’s the reason PITT is 5-2. The first pass offense minded good coach we have had since Walt Harris! I don’t think he will be with PITT next year.

    He’s a head coach, and will be picked up by a needy team during the off season. He’s a rare jewel and I hope we find someone with the same skills. He’s human. You see his warts and personality defects on TV, and from the little I can read about him on the internet. He’s tough on the players. Not sure he would be good at recruiting players PITT needs to be competitive in a Power 5 conference. He is an interesting cat though. Went to Brown. Must have some smarts. Would like to know more about his personal life; his family. Where his people are living. Wonder if these guys end up gypsies and wander the Country. Their dream is to coach.

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    1. Hope you’re wrong about Coach Whip leaving, Old Pitt Grad.

      As for his recruiting ability, the stats his offense produces will recruit QBs, WRs and TEs.

      Seems to me he has a good situation here, especially with the QBs we have coming back…

      Go Pitt.

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    2. Whipple was just let go as HC at UMass. I can see maybe him leaving for a better OC situation a la Chaney and Canada but not sure about another HC position at his age. But then again, Mack Brown is 67

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      1. I disagree with both of you. Do you want to constantly uproot and move when you are over 60? Probably not.

        My suspicion is that whipple values stability a decent incomes and the ability to run the offense as he sees fit.

        I think Pitt offers him stability and a decent income (although I don’t know that facts on what he is paid). I suspect that duzz gives him pretty free rein over the offense.

        Unless someone tripled his salary why would Whipple leave?

        Liked by 2 people

        1. According to Pitt’s tax return for the period 7/1/17 – 6/30/18, Shawn Watson was paid $405,000. According to the USA Today head coaches report, Whipple was paid (or scheduled to be paid) $500,000 for the 2018 calendar year.

          Not really sure if Whipple was paid a buyout amount (if one is due) or if one was owed. In buyouts, it is not uncommon for buyouts to be either paid in a lumpsum or to be paid over a period oy years where the owed buyout is reduced by the amount paid for another coaching job.

          This is one explanation of why so many fired HC’s end up on the Alabama’s staff as an analysis.The fired HC gets the value of learning Sabin’s system & Sabin get an experienced coach that doesn’t cost what he may (or may not) be worth. Also, Sabin my get a very experienced coach to replace a staff coach who later leaves.
          .
          I wonder if Pitt got him on the cheap – UMass paying the bulk of what he makes. But I do believe his dream is to coach.

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        2. Michaelangelo, Whipple doesn’t need triple the money to leave. How about an extra $100M; plus a guarantee number of years if possible. Where is Whipple’s family? Where would he like to be? Doesn’t have to be a head coaches job. At 61 I don’t think he wants to consider retiring or slowing down. Putting money away is probably important.

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          1. Ain’t nobody paying him $100M but I’m assuming that was a typo. Yea I hear you. Agree he has a HC mentality. Just depends on what he wants. I choose to believe Pitt is a great situation for him. Yes maybe he needs a raise. I think he gets one if he needs one is that provides continuity.

            Not sure how many suitors there will be though for a guy who “on paper” averaged slightly more than 20 ppg. (Again with average and inexperienced talent so maybe some programs recognize that…)

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        1. I didn’t say Whipple would get a Head coaching job. I said he was/is a head coach. I mean mentally. I don’t think PITT keeps him for long after what he was able to do with our offense in one year. Truely amazing. Like a bunch of coaches, we has been pushed around. At this stage in life he is going where the money is and/or where his interest takes him. After U Mass let him go, PITT was his best deal. Now he is in the driver’s seat. There are going to be suiters.

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          1. I think you are a great poster Pitt Grad but half of the poster on the POV think Whipple is whiffing… (NOT ME) It’s interesting to read how we all think just a little different about the same thing?

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    3. I don’t think Whip will leave for a HC…he will be 61 years old next year..has enjoyed a long career in FB , spent time at the top of the game in the NFL and has probabiy locked down a good 401k…don’t see that happening…still can’t figure out why Mack Brown returned to coaching..was he a victim of the #metoo gang…kidding…he shouldn’t need the money- I hear Texas pays very well…

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  7. I expect the game to be much like last year, but the difference this year is Pitt does have some semblance of a pass game. I would love to see Pitt be able to run but have big doubts, but thanks to Whipple and KP, we have a fighting chance.

    A lot of good data above. I agree with Pitt-Cocks, one of the big factors in this game is to keep KP protected. Not only for his health but also not forcing him to throw into coverage a lot

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  8. I think Whipple is here for a while. Part of the interest from Duzz was rumored to be that he didn’t want to be a head coach again. He gets almost the entire offense back next season too.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. I want to get this straight. Did Richard write this entire article or supply the stats? Either way, great job Richard. The bean counter strikes again!! 🙂 🙂

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  10. I would be surprised to see whipple leave this year. But I never thought Chaney merited his “promotion” to Georgia so I guess you never know.

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    1. Fair point. A big unknown here is the relationship. From observing on the sideline I think the duz and the whip get along but who knows

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  11. The PITT football program entering the phase of worrying about a coach picking up and leaving. Trust the Process. Just give Mr Whipple a bump in pay and keep all the asst coaches happy, especially Beatty. I think Narduzzi must realize by now he is only as good as his assistants.

    Liked by 5 people

    1. We have had to suffer through Narduzzi’s staff building effort which is what happens when you promote an assistant from another school to the head coaching position. Hopefully he keeps this staff together for several years as they are the best he has had on both sides of the ball. Too bad this defense was not around in 2016!

      Liked by 1 person

  12. You can also probably add to it at least a dozen or so passes this season that SHOULD have been easily caught, but were complete drops…Some of those in some crucial situations too.

    -TheShaman

    Liked by 6 people

  13. Re:MM @ 11:30:

    So I guessed wrong….
    Richard is the Defense, but MM plays both O & D in my analogy.

    So, “Hats off” to both of you. Really good job.

    As to Whip’s future, I’d like to think his scheme will allow for much better skill players (RBs, maybe not so much). But I would think his scheme would make it easier for Borbs to attract pass blocking type linemen, as well as TEs.

    Liked by 1 person

  14. Going back to those coach’s salaries…

    IMHO, it is obscene to pay a college football coach 3 or 4 million dollars a year.

    And it is obscener to pay a Coach 5, 7 or 9 million a year.

    Go Pitt.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. A post at the LAIR a post indicated that Whipple committed to being at Pitt for as long as they wanted him to stay. I don’t if it’s true but given his age it would not surprise men if he decided to retire from coaching if and when his services were not needed at Pitt.—FWIW I think both Narduzzi and Whipple are here for the long haul. Now if we were talking about Partridge that’s another question altogether. I do believe he will get some very serious offers come seasons end with the dollars to back them up.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. It could happen jrn, I just don’t think so. PITT has already elevated him to assistant head coach status and Charlie has been around the block as well. (second stint at PITT) He should know what side his bread is buttered on as well. BUT you are right, PITT needs to keep this entire staff together for a good while. Good things are happening.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. I did say Ike if the offers come for Partridge there will be dollars to back them up. Maybe I should have said Canada or Chaney type offers to back them up.—-By the way coach Whipple said yesterday when speaking about the Miami defense he thought Miami will be the toughest game that we had on the year so far. Also note on the statistics presented today noted that Perkins the VA QB was sacked 5 times. And since I watched most of that game IMO Perkins probably avoided at least and additional 5 sacks just because he was so athletic. So I guess I’m going to have to agree with Coach Whipple in that I believe the Miami team could well be the toughest test for our offense this season.

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    2. I agree. Charlie has a good thing going at Pitt and he’s been around long enough to know it. I doubt he’ll pull a canada

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  17. Whipple is good for Kenny. Not so sure about the next quarterback. I personally like an offense that throws the deep ball. But for now, let Whipple continue whispering.

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  18. I get it jrn, giving up more money is a very hard decision to make. Chaney has already moved on to Tennessee and Canada is unemployed. It’s called opportunity cost. Sooner or later when we get older we will choose a path with a smaller window to fail and maybe a little more stable future for your family. or I would hope so anyways…

    PITT has a potential Heisman Trophy candidate on the team. His name is Davis Beville. << Keep Whipple in place and all the asst coaches Heather!!

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  19. Ike, I think it’s a little too early to call Beville a Heisman candidate. We have seen at least one 5 star QB candidate pass through Pittsburgh recently and I’m sure the folks at So Cal were calling him a Heisman candidate also before he even showed up on the field for them.

    Liked by 1 person

  20. LOL jrn, that’s very true. No doubt that’s an early call on my part. It’s an educated projection on my part. I heard some great things about this kid. Then again, being really good and being a Heisman candidate are two different things altogether. So I’ll correct myself and reel that kind of talk in. Thanks.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. Whipple – I like Whipple and at this point am hoping he is a long term employee here, but frankly at this point, he is still far from proven as an OC and therefore it would shock me if there is any interest in a team hiring him as soon as next year. Plus, he would benefit from hanging around Pitt for a little longer, to allow Tomlin to get traded to the Skins and Duzz to take the Rutgers job, then he has his pick of HC jobs without having to even move again.

    Beville – Ike, I like your optimism, but I sure hope your exaggeration of Beville’s skill set isn’t based on his “star rating”, and that there’s a little more substance to your comment, like some scoop you’ve heard about him from people to close to the program…??

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  22. Yes, from people who have watched him play in high school including a NFL QB from down around his way. << That is second hand info but from a reliable source.

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    1. ike — I can see a future where Davis Beville, after 3 or 4 years of tutoring, turns out to be the crowning achievement in Coach Whipple’s QB-whispering career.

      👍

      Go Pitt.

      Liked by 1 person

  23. Miami’s defensive players are better than our offensive players. Which means for Pitt to win this game, it all falls on one person……..

    Coach Whip!

    We sink or swim with Coach Whip this week. He has to find a way to score 24 points…

    Go Pitt.

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    1. Psu’s defensive players are better than our offensive players, AND they had homefield, yet Pitt still put up 390 yards of offense. The key will be not settling for field goals in the red zone.

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  24. On a different topic, I received a notification from WordPress that one year ago today, I registered on WordPress.
    That means I have two anniversaries today. One year on WordPress & one day since I was relieved of the chore of logging in every day.

    May these anniversaries continue well into the future.

    Liked by 3 people

  25. I don’t see Miami scoring much. Pitt probably needs to score 17 to win. I expect Pitt to win by a touchdown so the Vegas line is nearly spot on.

    I predict three pitt takeaways to Miami’s one.

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    1. I wana that Pitt turnover backboard break this game from all those turnover slam dunks. I expect P. Ford to come out guns a blazin and will at least get 1 pic.

      ~TheShaman

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  26. I think it’s pretty clear that Kenny’s shoulder is decently banged up at a minimum and they’re frequently shooting it full of whatever they use to numb guys up these days. And that is why hes not getting much air under the ball and isnt taking many deep shots anyway

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    1. That maybe be true about Kenny’s shoulder. But from where I ait Kenny has never been able to get much air under the ball even when there was no question about his shoulder.

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      1. I find that an odd opinion considering he has put too much air under the ball multiple times earlier this season. He’s never had a problem throwing it a long way until his shoulder got jacked up vs UCF. Last year his deep ball was his most accurate throw and multiple big plays were made from it

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    2. Yes you are absolutely right regarding what is going on, my concern is how is his shoulder holding up this week? Is he practicing and throwing without discomfort? Narduzzi his Picketts injury the entire week up to the Delaware game, is he doing the same this week?

      Liked by 1 person

  27. Kenny Pickett is ranked 90th , the running game is in the crapper and we stink offensively in the second half of games.
    But a few of you think Whipple is a gem. In fact, you’re afraid he will leave for greener pastures.
    Puuuhhhhlleeeze.

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        1. What really grinds my gears is that narduzzi is stacking wins trying to have a good season when all that does is give PSU a more quality OOC win if he succeeds

          What is he thinking? UNACCEPTABLE

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    1. All true but ask yourself this: What would our qb be ranked if we had Watson? Would we have even able to put together any of our three fourth quarter comebacks?

      What kind of talent has Whipple had to work with?

      Liked by 1 person

  28. I expect Miami to try and establish the run with Harris. He had another good week against GT with several really good runs and a couple of nice screen pass catch and runs. If we can slow him down, then they will have to pass. Their OL is not particularly good at pass protection and their QB (depends on which QB plays) is not particularly accurate. Stop the run and they won’t score a ton.

    Miami’s LBs are really good but their D has some weaknesses to exploit for sure.

    This will be a fun challenge for Pitt.

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  29. Gasman – The offense has not been great but it’s the reason Pitt is 5-2 and the difference from last to this year with a brand new offensive line and backfield and OC is pretty remarkable, actually.

    I agree we need a bigger sample size but it’s been mostly positive so far.

    Liked by 2 people

  30. From looking around the interwebs, Miami fans are convinced pitt is gonna win by 2 TDs and most of them want it to be more. They really want the rest of their season to be awful because they think that means the AD and head coach will get canned

    Interesting to be reminded that just about everyone’s fans on the interwebs think their team stinks

    Liked by 1 person

  31. IMO the biggest reason we are 5-2 is the defensive pressure and ability to take the running game away from almost every team we’ve played so far, followed by a relentless pass rush that has us leading the nation in sacks.

    Don’t get me wrong, the O is much improved this year from a passing perspective but the running game has been very ineffective. However, with the RBs we now have the running game would probably be lacking no matter who the OC is, so for that reason I agree Whip is what this team needed.

    Bottom line in my book, until we start landing some stud OL recruits our O will be mediocre at best.

    Liked by 1 person

  32. Never said I wanted anyone canned.
    But to put Whipple on a pedestal is ludicrous.
    What has our offense done in the second half aside from snooze?
    90th-ranked qb…hey lets retire his number.
    5-2…great! But precisely what good team have we beaten?
    You fellas can self-flagellate all you want, but stop drooling over an anemic offense and it’s coordinator.

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      1. Pitt for college.
        Pitt for medical school.
        Pitt for residency.
        12 years, homey. Now, how about you?
        I bleed blue and gold.
        But heaven forbid someone use facts to prove a point and they are ostracized, criticized and ridiculed.
        The offense is subpar; the defense is not. So, if you want to anoint Whipple as an offensive savior, go ahead. But I am not going to sit idly by and agree with the nonsense.

        Liked by 1 person

    1. No one is happier than I (and it is I, not me) that Pitt is winning. But if you want to place lipstick on an offensive pig and expect me to take it to the dance, you have another thing coming.
      It is no sin to be objective. That doesn’t mean I’m negative, a Nit (God forbid) or anti anyone.
      And if nitpicking is reminding the faithful that the qb is in the lower third of the rankings, the running game blows and the offense can’t do squat after halftime, then so be it.

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      1. Gasman — I haven’t seen any petitions to erect a Whipple statue, but you can’t deny that he has called some game winning drives — something we haven’t seen in a while.

        I grant you that the third period swoons are bad – but you don’t seem to want to give credit to Coach Whipple for wringing some points out of this offense in spite of significant flaws in our personnel at OT and TE, and our lack of a dynamic running back.

        Once Coach Whipple gets a few more pieces, the QB rating and run game will improve…

        Go Pitt.

        Liked by 2 people

  33. I think some of the whipple hype is a bit premature even though he’s done good to start. I think we will see big improvements when our oline is more cohesive. The coordinator who is probably more applealing for other schools is bates at this point.

    Liked by 1 person

  34. Good post 2003. If PITT has the success this year I’m thinking they might (9/10 wins), Coach Narduzzi needs to find a way to get his assistants a raise. It would really be a great thing to keep as much of this staff together as possible for the next couple of years.

    Liked by 2 people

  35. couple things:

    I had to laugh at the question posed to Paris Ford…… Paraphrasing here. The coach said you have the best instincts he’s ever seen, where did you learn these? Ford’s response. I don’t know. Perfect answer. That’s where instincts come from, out of nowhere. They are instincts!

    Posters that hold some sort of grudge against Narduzzi will never see the light at the end of the tunnel.

    Yep, keep this coaching group together and lets see what happens?

    Whipple and KP next year? Everyone makes money. BOOM!

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      1. And assuming we have two decent offensive tackles and find a TE. Those are the missing parts. Hopefully some younger guys step up at those positions.

        Go Pitt.

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        1. I am still bullish on carter warren at left tackle. I think he has the tools but he needs more experience and coaching. I had hoped we would have Hoy on the right tackle all year and be set there for next year. That side will be a question mark.

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          1. Have high hopes for Carter Warren too. Maybe the issue is still experience and he’s still thinking too much instead of just playing, but he appears awkward at times. And this is even though Coach Borbs says Warren may be our most athletic Olineman…

            That play against Syracuse where he got turned all the way around and gave up a sack is troubling… Miami has to be studying that one.

            And it’s probably not a big factor, but I’d like to see some of our Olinemen — like Hargrove and Warren, shed a few pounds to be a bit more nimble…

            I think the body-types on the freshmen tackles (Goncalves and Dick) look more promising – but who knows with offensive linemen…

            Go Pitt.

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      2. NFL should have a limit on how many Underclassmen they can take a year or who can declare themselves draft eligible… way more than are needed could declare for the draft early losing their eligibility and never even seeing the sideline on a pro level…. a lot of these kids have dreams and it isn’t becoming a doctor or engineer…….

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  36. I read Tomlin fired Whipple from the Steelers staff when he took over as Steelers head coach. Wonder how the relationship is today? Tomlin looks like the guy who should go now.

    Liked by 2 people

  37. As my twitter account feed keeps showing more and more sports analysts jumping on the Pitt bandwagon, why is my feeling of doom growing for this coming weekend. It is starting to build into a perfect “Pitting” storm.

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  38. Gasman, from where I sit the offensive schemes look good and are only limited by player skill levels. Whipple has to work with what he’s got. A couple decent TEs would really help. No power backs that can break tackles. The OL is average at best. And a fullback would help the short game. Whipple needs a couple of years to fill out his line up.

    Liked by 1 person

  39. If Pitt falls asleep at half, they will lose.

    I know some old coaching tricks to wake players up and get them going full steam ahead.

    Narduzzi – call me. 🤙

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  40. So I have another groundhog under my shed in the backyard. Second one this month. Had the first one removed by a pest control company, cost us $150.00 So I’m out there chucking a hammer and/or an axe at this one with a 6 iron in my other hand yelling “Get off my lawn, I have a big game to get ready for” I have to admit, it’s a little fun. 🙂 ….. I’ll keep yinz updated.

    Liked by 4 people

  41. I also think Whipple has done a great job with what he has to work with. Hope he sticks around and helps improve offensive recruiting. Definitely think QB’s, receivers and tight ends would want to play for him.

    However it all does start up front and linemen are needed. For whatever reason Pitt has had a history of attracting great running backs,

    Liked by 1 person

  42. Back to the original topic, great job by Mr. Hefner. Must have been tough living up to that name.

    No doubt as always, the key to this game is KP and the Sunshine Band (O-LIne). This will be as difficult a test as they have faced since there is super talent on Miami’s D and they should be extremely fired up after last week.

    We don’t know the extent of KP’s injuries, but going to the locker room twice during the last game is a pretty good indication that there are issues, and that was after two weeks rest.

    Whipple mixing in more runs was obviously a good thing, that may have been forced by KP’s condition and helped by the return of AJ. In any case, we need to see more of that this week. I prefer AJ and Sibley be the ball carriers with the other two used to catch passes, they need more open space to run in.

    The O-line is obviously the key, can they provide Kenny with enough time and the backs with some holes to run through? More importantly can they keep Kenny from longer stays in the locker room? Ulizio needs to have the game of his life.

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  43. Gasman has made some good points. The Pitt offense needs to improve for Pitt to become a real player.

    1) The ratings for the offense, both run and pass, are pretty low overall.
    2) The 2nd half slump seems to be more on the offense than the defense … whether it be turnovers or lack of productivity
    3) And not to be overlooked, Narduzzi’s bonehead decision vs PSU was set up by the fact that Pitt couldn’t gain 1 yard on 3 tries.

    I think Whipple is hampered somewhat by the OL, which doesn’t run block or pass block all that well. I believe this is the reason why Pitt is so dependent on the short passing game, which has more or less replaced Pitt’s run game. But by doing so, run data will suffers as will pass efficiency where yards per attempt is a factor

    Equation
    In NCAA Football, passer rating is calculated as follows:
    NCAA Passer Rating = ((8.4 x Passing Yards) + (330 x Touchdown Passes) + (100 x Number of Completions) – (200 x Interceptions)) / Passing Attempts

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    1. the actual equation is Passer Rating = (Passing Yards + TD Passes + Number of Completions – Interception) / Passing Attempts

      Those numbers listed above was an example of the calculation …. Thus KP’s large number of passes attempted resulting in the relatively low passing yards result in his low rating

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        1. Your calculations in original post (10/24 @ 7:50am is correct. Same formula that I used for data supplied to Mike.

          Good post.

          Like

    2. It is all in your perspective and expectations. No doubt the offense is the weaker sister. But how much of that is on Whipple, which seems to be where Gasman wants to place the blame. I say he has done an excellent job with what he has to work with. No exceptional talent on the O-line with little experience, a QB that had not distinguished himself as anywhere near elite to put it mildly. No passing game last year at all.
      Four new running backs with no stand outs plus injuries.

      So what do you expect? I think the bottom line results have been miraculous, 5 wins in very competitive games, one with out your starting QB, lucky that it was Delaware. Three finishing drives for wins, which has to be some kind of Pitt record. Those were engineered by Whipple and executed with confidence by his players. To me that really stands out as great coaching.

      Was the PSU decision on Narduzzi or Whipple, Narduzzi is the Coach so he gets the blame. Either way it was wrong, but has been more than compensated for since then.

      We have the rest of the season to determine Narduzzi’s, Whipple’s and the Team’s final grades but so far I can’t complain about much. I would say problems with offensive efficiency have been due to poor execution much more than play calling.

      Liked by 2 people

    3. ” hampered somewhat by the OL, which doesn’t run block or pass block all that well ” — Well, what I’ve been saying for two years — Borbely is a terrible OL coach. And all I hear is but, but, but . . . . Proof is in the pudding, though.

      Like

  44. Yes, back to this game. The key match up in this game is our DL against the Hurricanes OL. Pitt +1.

    Last week, NO PITT INJURIES!!! Pitt +1.

    This game, Paris Ford plays the entire game. Pitt +1.

    Another WR Weapon in SJL being fully healthy again. Pitt +1.

    Team’s trending. Pitt +1

    Having the Davis duo back at RB, especially AJ. Pitt +1.

    Attitude. Pitt +1.

    Pitt’s sleep walking imitation coming out of halftime. Miami +2.

    Team talent/speed. Miami +2.

    Miami’s starting & back up QB’s health status,. Pitt +1.

    Historical past between these teams. ZERO impact.

    TOTAL Pitt +3. So we don’t cover the spread but get our 6th win, since of course, everybody know that Hurricanes blow. Let’s go Pitt!

    Liked by 3 people

    1. I’m sorry but I don’t think Pitt has any advantage … I see this as a game between two evenly matched teams. And judging from last year, calling it even might not be fair, because we were physically inferior to them last season. If you want to talk intangibles, I feel like Miami is due to circle the wagons and avenge the loss they suffered last week. If they can beat UVA, then it’s possible they control us at Heinz just like UVA did. I think our O-line really has to step it up and play to their max potential.

      Liked by 1 person

  45. Apparently Butler-Jenkins was hurt last game. PITT will need all hands on deck…… Maybe Jerry should ask Narduzzi is he was injured?

    BTW, I did tell the wife to get me some firecrackers, smoke bombs and a pellet gun. My 357 would be overkill imo. For the groundhog not Narduzzi.

    Liked by 1 person

  46. Ike–Go out and buy a large metal animal trap. Much cheaper than 150 and very effective if baited properly. Then take the marmota for a ride and release near someone’s house whom you dislike.

    BigB–anyone should be permitted to go pro at any time. Was Bill Gates forced to stay at Harvard when he started Microsoft at age 19? I remember after Hackenbergs freshman year, he was hailed as a sure fire first rounder, if not the #1 pick. Last year Clemsons freshman QB was touted as the #1 pick if he was draft eligible. Monopolistic rules work both ways and have caused some individuals to lose lifetime security. I realize these individuals are in the minority, but we do live in a supposed free economy.

    Liked by 3 people

  47. Richard, thanks for your analytics-always provides a factual insight into this game we love..Mike thanks for assisting..you guys are another Groat and Maz….

    Dr.Tom hit on one point that is bothering the whole PITT organization/Panther nation (except for the group waiting to sing “Sweet Caroline”) and that is the 3rd quarter snooze…gotta get some points on the board after the half…keep the foot on the throat and don’t let them get back up….

    VT hammered these guys and what I deduce from that win is the Canes will quit if we get a good jump on them but on the other hand PITT’s 3rd quarter history and lack of 2nd half scoring is there for all to see…no team facing the Panthers will roll over in the second half…we had a chance to crush Duke but a fumbled punt and an interception.. gave us all a stress test!!!…some of it self- inflicted included dropped passes, fumble and turn-overs…..goal-line/red-zone D has been OK -not great…also would like to see Whip extend the field of play vertically..this is the 8th game of the season and maybe we don’t have that type of receiver…I will quit BSing…who know-just win the damn game..Remember how we got out asses handed to us last year…that should provide plenty of motivation…

    I hope we don’t have a lot of unsportsman-like calls on either side in this game…lot’s of
    Floridian’s on the field…hopefully, no ole neighborhood conflicts/grudges to be settled…play smart ball…Advantage-who knows-we will see Saturday…..

    Like

    1. Did you guys watch Shockey’s interview? You can see the hurt in his eyes that Miami “didn’t give him a look” This game could turn ugly like BigB hints at.

      Like

  48. also had chance to demolish UCF and Cuse…same story… lower leading Virginia at the half and tied with Penn State at the half… That’s how close we have been yet so far away…. Second half results have to change if we are going to run the table… But we only have one game this week… Time does show up for the second half…maybe ditch Sweet Caroline…try something different…

    Liked by 1 person

  49. My son is in need of a parking pass on the east side of the stadium, my little grand kids can’t walk too far so? anyone that might have one would be appreciated.

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  50. According to the Miami papers both Miami QB’s are cleared to play. QB #2 who dislocated his shoulder last week is cleared and QB #1 who has a bruised right shoulder and came in last week was sacked and then left the game is also cleared to play. Looks like they are suiting up all the walking wounded and bringing them to Pittsburgh. Whether they play or not is another question. Their LB Pinchkey(spelling ?) is doubtful. But they are bringing in a Senior LB who they were sitting out to red shirt him for next season and who played in their first 3 games is coming back to start it looks like for the injured LB.—-So it looks like their are patching everyone up to give them their best shot against Pitt.

    Like

  51. BREAKING NEWS: Taysir Mack just posted(and showed) via his Instagram account his right foot is in a boot. If true he may be a no go for this Saturday. They will need Shocky at 100% as well as an official burning of the Jayrd Wayne red shirt for 2019.

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  52. Well…last year we shut down their run and made them pass and performed admirably on D..we checked off both of those boxes and lost ….they stuffed our run game and we had ZERO-NADDA-ZILCH in the way of a passing game to counter-punch with…as far as Mack goes,look on the bright side…maybe a vertical deep threat will emerge- someone who can get behind all of the defenders..that’s what I’m talk’n ’bout…make the Canes defend the whole frigg’n filed..Come on Whip…show us the piece of the passing game that has been MIA!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  53. Good post B and I agree but I raise caution to the wind. Are we sure that wasn’t Narduzzi hijacking Mack’s account? Next thing we see is a cast on Macks foot?

    Liked by 1 person

  54. Narduzzi not talking about injuries speaks very loudly.

    Hey everyone, our #1 receiver has a cast on his foot so you should adjust accordingly.

    Like

  55. Well I guess we will find out soon enough whether that cast is legit or not. What I am sure about however is that Narduzzi would not be happy for one of his leading receivers posting on social media anything that might give the opposition any insight on Pitt for this Saturday.

    Liked by 1 person

  56. Looks like the post was pulled from the website which suggests to me at least that it was legit. That being said it’s also being reported that several players have from time to time were being instructed to where the boot so as not to aggravate a previous injury.—My guess is Mack is frustrated at having the boot being an integral part of his wardrobe and showed so via the post. At least that’s what his post suggested. As a follow up I’m also sure the Narduzzi team was not happy that he decided to vent his frustration via social media and as such forced him to remove it.

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  57. Lots of players have had their joints immobilize to accelerate their recovery process. Ask pittpt and biggieB. Doesn’t mean they are in and doesn’t mean they are out. What does it mean?? GOT ME!

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  58. Re:web’s QB rating formula, the thing that sticks out to me is the weighting of the different factors. And TD passes is weighted the most. If KP can start hitting paydirt as well as he can the full court heave, or the bottle cap removal throw, his rating will skyrocket.

    A main factor in the number of throws he’s gotten this far this year is the D getting the ball back in his hands so quickly.

    Richard – stat guru (Stat-ner??)- can you find a stat that shows number of possession current year to date versus last year after 7 games?

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    1. Bruce (Savannah) – Sorry – couldn’t find any stats on possessions per game I know they are out there. Just couldn’t find them.

      I am constantly amazed at stats that people tweet or write about & wonder who has the time to track them. .

      Like

  59. I see where Dan Marino will be at the game Saturday.

    While it will be great to have Dan there (will he run in the race against TD, Fitz, and Iron Mike?), seems to me our record with Dan in the house is awful…

    And, right on cue, it’s supposed to rain…

    Hail to Pitt!

    Like

    1. —Can KP throw a wet ball?

      —Can our receivers catch a wet ball?

      —Can our punter catch a wet snap?

      Can Scooter cheer effectively in a drizzle?

      So many pressing questions…

      Go Pitt.

      Liked by 1 person

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