Can we just drop the pretense that all of a sudden we are getting great 3* recruits who have fantastically better offers than those young men whom Paul Chryst, Todd Graham and Dave Wannstedt recruited?  It isn’t true.  Yes, some of those past 3* kids had more minor offers but we have seen that in the last two years also.

That said, I do like these recruits Narduzzi is bringing in – I just don’t think a roster with a large majority of these 3* players are going to make a huge difference in the future (regardless of where their offers come from)…  But we’ll how that comes out later as the games are played, right?

Here are some recruits listings I went through from Rivals.com which showed the Power 5 schools (and BE schools in the earlier years) from the players’ offer sheets.  These individually listed recruits are from 2012 and 2013… with the 2014 Chryst recruits at the end of the article.  I got tired of cutting and pasting by then.

Remember, the below names are only the 2* and 3* recruits who had these ‘Power Five school offers.  if there were less than two of those  offers I didn’t list them (but almost every player had one or two besides Pitt).

It isn’t any coincidence that Wannstedt started winning more games when his recruiting in 2006 and onward started being populated by more 4* and 5* players… even in the lesser quality BE conference. 

Here is what our yearly 4* and 5* totals were over the last 12 years and please note that this is not intended as a comparison between coaches but to show that at the level of recruiting Pitt has historically accomplished we have been averaging 7.2 wins (over the last 11 seasons) with those rosters.

Now we are up to eight wins and fans feel that is fine, but the goal isn’t to remain stagnant but to get to conference championship games, win them and then get to the playoffs.  Here they are:

’06 – seven 4* recruits

’07 – six 4*

’08 – one 5* and  five 4*

’09 – four 4*

’10 – four 4*

’11 – two 4*

’12 – four 4*

’13 –  one 5* and two 4*

’14 – four 4*

15 – two 4*

’16 – five 4*

’17 – five 4*

See what I mean? If we are pulling in this low number of blue chip recruits we are going to see pretty much the same thing we have seen in the past and that is up and down non-championship ball.

Also – take even these offers listed below with a grain of salt as we have discussed ‘offers’ are a lot of time not formal offers but more like conversations.  Just like we should take the ones last year and this year, but for comparison’s sake I listed all that Rivals.com had them down.

3* Bam Bradley

Pittsburgh
Arizona
Cincinnati
Michigan State
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Stanford
Syracuse
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
West Virginia

 3* Chris Davis

Arkansas
Baylor
Boise State
Cincinnati
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kent State
Minnesota
Oregon State
Purdue
Southern Methodist
Toledo
UCLA
Vanderbilt
West Virginia

3* Holtz

Pittsburgh
Arkansas
Boston College
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers
Syracuse
Temple
Virginia
West Virginia

3* D. Davis

Pittsburgh
Arkansas
Baylor
Boston College
Cincinnati
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kent State
Minnesota
Oregon
Oregon State
Purdue
Southern Methodist
Toledo
UCLA
Vanderbilt
West Virginia

 

N/A

3* Bradley

Arizona
Cincinnati
Michigan State
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Stanford
Syracuse
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
West Virginia

3* Render

Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Louisville
Syracuse
West Virginia

3* R. Lewis

Colorado
Utah

3* J. Jones-Smith

Arizona
Michigan
North Carolina State
Temple
UCF
Vanderbilt
Villanova
Virginia
Wisconsin

3* A. Officer

Pittsburgh
Boston College
Purdue
Rutgers
Syracuse
West Virginia

3* Terrell Jackson

Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Duke
Illinois
Iowa
Michigan State

3* S. Soto

Pittsburgh
Boston College
Maryland
Temple
Virginia

3* J. Moody

School
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rutgers
Syracuse
Temple
UCF
Virginia Tech

3* Orndoff

Pittsburgh
Boston College
Michigan
Michigan State
Virginia
West Virginia
Wisconsin

3* Ibrahim

Pittsburgh
Boston College
Duke
Iowa

2* Reg Green

Boston College
Michigan State
North Carolina State
Rutgers
Temple

And then here are the guys Chryst recruited before Narduzzi was hired and stuck with Pitt – all three star recruits and you can look at their offers on Rivals also… Many “Power 5” schools among them.

Name Pos Rating
Connor Hayes OL 5.6
Jalen Williams DB 5.5
Patrick Amara ATH 5.5
Adam Bertke QB 5.5
Dennis Briggs ATH 5.3
Mike Grimm OL 5.8
Avonte Maddox ATH 5.5
Connor Dintino DT 5.6
Mike Herndon DT 5.6
Shane Roy DE 5.5
Quintin Wirginis LB 5.3
Brian O’Neill TE 5.5
Elijah Zeise WR 5.6
Phillipie Motley DB 5.5
Rori Blair DE 5.3
Qadree Ollison RB 5.5
Jaquaun Davidson ATH 5.5
Chris James RB 5.8
James Folston Jr. LB 5.5
Alex Bookser OL 5.8

We Pitt fans’ attitudes toward this recruiting subject is frustrating to me. 

I applaud Narduzzi for getting coach Charlie Partridge back on staff to bolster local recruiting, but we fans split hairs like crazy when it comes down to justifying rather poor recruiting (compared to programs which have historically better records and rankings than we do) on Narduzzi’s part.

He has to somehow pull out all stops to get more 4* and 5* kids on the roster and then, perhaps more importantly, keep them on the roster and playing ball for us.  It isn’t a personal criticism really at this point – compared to past Pitt HCs he’s pretty much in line… but then again we were getting non-championship football out of them also.

I think he can do it; I hope so,  but let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that 3* kids with offers from Power Five schools are going to get us championships – it hasn’t in the past and won’t now or in the future.

 

 

179 thoughts on “The Three Star Offer Myth, and Why Do We Believe It?

  1. I’m with the group that says the FB recruiting is not progressing the way it should. They should be talking about more 4 stars they are close to now, and I’m not getting that feeling. At this point in the Chryst/Duzzi reign most positions now have average to above average talent, sufficient to win 8 games. Pitt should be looking for higher end talent at every position, and then winning some recruiting battles for top kids, but I’m not seeing it.

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  2. No Huff, the difference between PITT and unc is that PITT gets the negative publicity and unc gets away with cheating for years with illegal classes and unethical behavior. All the while they are still held in a high regard. WHY?

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  3. Here is a voice of reason…

    Look at Mark Dantonio at MSU, who incidentally had a very similar W-L record over his first two years

    Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten Conference) (2007–present)
    2007 Michigan State 7–6 3–5 T–7th L Champs Sports
    2008 Michigan State 9–4 6–2 3rd L Capital One 24 24
    2009 Michigan State 6–7 4–4 T–6th L Alamo
    2010 Michigan State 11–2 7–1 T–1st L Capital One 14 14
    2011 Michigan State 11–3 7–1 1st (Legends) W Outback 10 11
    2012 Michigan State 7–6 3–5 4th (Legends) W Buffalo Wild Wings
    2013 Michigan State 13–1 8–0 1st (Legends) W Rose† 3 3
    2014 Michigan State 11–2 7–1 2nd (East) W Cotton† 5 5
    2015 Michigan State 12–2 7–1 1st (East) L Cotton† 6 6
    2016 Michigan State 3–9 1–8 6th (East)

    Now look at his first 4 full recruiting classes

    2007 – three 4*
    2008 – one 4*
    2009 – TEN 4* (okay you have to admit that was a really good year. But even the Wanstache never pulled in ten 4* at Pitt and it’s totally unrealistic to think anybody ever will)
    Total fourteen 4* players

    Narduzzi first 3
    2015 – two 4*
    2016 – five 4*
    2017 – five 4*
    Total twelve 4* players. This is not too far off of Dantonio’s pace. For the record Dantonio signed four 4+1 in 2010 (there was a five star in the mix) but the 4 star quarterback he signed (JOE BOISTURE) never saw the field. So how ’bout them apples?

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    1. LOL I’m just joking People. Good thing his recruiting is weak or MSU would of brought him in to clean house over D’antonio

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  4. off topic: OU has their head coach, Lincoln Riley the OC who by the way has NO head coaching experience. unless I am mistaken.

    Almost all of Nard’s 4* players are late to commit, usually just before LOI day as the top 15 schools fill up their classes.

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  5. The point being that some 4 stars commit to Pitt after they have been squeezed out somewhere else by waiting too long. We still haven’t seen the landscape shift yet, where 4 stars commit to Pitt early. It looks like MSU has been reaching for some players and not paying attention to the intangibles. Three players get the boot, not good publicity in recruiting circles.

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  6. Recruiting is improving. Granted, it’s gradual and not immediate. Once again, Duzz is building a program for sustained success not flash in the pan seasons. There is a clear plan in place. The difference between a 5.5 3 star and 5.8 3 star is couple hundred players. It’s significant. Duzz saw D-Line recruiting as a weakness so he made a switch with that position coach and upgraded recruiting. He’s being pro-active addressing weaknesses.

    Reed – you should care about what Duzz did at MSU. That’s the program Pitt is being modeled after. Once again, Duzz’s recruiting has much better distribution of talent and is not position group focused like Chryst. There are less holes on the Duzz roster than the Chryst roster.

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  7. I want to believe you, Tossing, but after waiting since 1976 for Pitt to reach the top again, I’m a bit skeptical. I thought with Sherrill we would quickly see it again, but the administration wasn’t going to give him the program control, and I think it has continued that way ever since. So they don’t get the benefit of the doubt in my view. I hope I’m wrong this time, but programs like Oklahoma will always have openings that need to be filled, and money talks..

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  8. It’s way too early to determine how effective the current staff’s recruiting is. You can start seriously judging by December , and even then it may be premature.

    IMO, there should be no doubt that Pitt should be really good in 2018, considering all of the youth / potential on this team … even with the possibility of an inexperienced QB

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  9. VoR – With every new coach, it all resets again. With every new coach, patience is required. I can’t control the last 35 years. The reality of building a successful program from where Pitt was starting is what we’re currently seeing.

    Do you want a team that peaks once a decade or a team that can have sustained success? For sustained success, it take time to get systems installed, players in place and culture solidified.

    Progress is being made. A majority of high 2’s/low 3’s has turned into mid 3’s has turned into mid to high 3’s. High 3’s to low 4’s will be coming. I know each class has gotten 4 stars but I’m talking about what the majority of the recruits were.

    There is no benefit of the doubt. It’s just reality. You may not believe that Pitt football will get the support that is required but that is separate issue than Narduzzi recruiting.

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  10. back to back 8 regular season wins and some already think PITT is mired in mediocrity. Stuck there. Back away from the tree boys and take a look at the forest. It’s big and looking more beautiful everyday.

    As far as recruiting goes, PITT is still one year away from seeing what Narduzzi’s recruits can and will do. RS sophomores are not the basis of a good football team. Can we just see instead of diving so deep into our own fears and history and appreciate for at least a moment what has been accomplished in two years?

    As far as this years recruiting class? Same thing, it’s an unfinished class and far too early to criticize it. Looking out the rear-view mirror only gets one stuck in the past without the possibility of seeing what’s ahead and possibly positive future.

    Just like the round-table it’s the negative commenters that are afraid to jump in.. You ever noticed that? It’s the ones that want to complain all things PITT that won’t go on the round-table to express their feelings with the words from their mouths. I don’t get that. and not you Upitt but all the negative posters.

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