POV’s Prediction Thread: Duke

“It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future”

Neils Bohr

The time has come for all of us guys who predicted last week’s outcome correctly to give it another shot for Saturday’s game against Duke.  Do not count me in on the above – I figured Pitt would lose by 17 points.

Yesterday we had POV’s Know the Enemy article so if you read that it might help with your choice for tomorrow… or not.  Honestly this season has been a tricky one in predicting games, at least it has been for me.  I sit at .500 in my picks.

One thing that has been constant, and IMO will most probably stay constant, is our terrible pass defense.  I’d say it was clicking along at a steady rate of passing yards per game given up by the Panthers but that isn’t true either.

We actually dropped one spot in the national rankings from #126  to #127 after we gave up 586 yards to Clemson.  Yes – it has been a record-setting year for Pitt and we can now add most yards given up in an ACC game to our list of Pitt records.  It is so bad it isn’t even enjoyable to make fun of any longer.

The strange thing is that we have won six games while doing this – and will probably add one to the win column while letting the Duke QB slip our DBs a roofie and have his way with them.  Hell, he doesn’t even need to do that… he just has to show up and throw the ball anywhere past the line of scrimmage.

Duke’s top three receivers are 5’10”, 6’5″ and 6’1″ so we’ll see them throw the fade every third pass.  Of course that doesn’t make any sense but neither does giving up 343 ypg and 2.1 passing TDs per game.

So – predictions: duke-smart-chartHere are some numbers to consider when making your decisions courtesy of Oddsshark.com. As you can see here Duke hasn’t been too shabby on the offensive side of the ball. That 231 yards passing will be higher Saturday and their 173 ypc rushing will be lower – if Pitt holds to form.

Another nice thing is that Duke has given up yards on the ground so expect James Conner and anyone in a Pitt uniform not named Ollison to have some big gainers on the ground.

duke-power-stats

This is an interesting bit of info and one that I hadn’t paid much attention to before.

You can see from the chart on the left that Pitt scores a point for every 11.34 yards it has on offense – that is pretty darn good.

Duke giving up 15.58 yards per pass looked wrong to me until I looked it up in the NCAA stats lines.  Indeed they do – and that is the 2nd worse ypp average in the nation.

Hear that Coach Canada?  Time for you to air out the ball and get Peterman some more opportunities to throw for big yardage and TDs.  His five TDs last week is a great stat but they weren’t very long plays.  We’ll take that anyway of course but this Duke game can be a great opportunity to get more of a balanced offense then we had seen before the Clemson game.

Here are the major stats for Duke again…

duke-stats

What all this leads to is the odds makers picking Pitt by…

duke-score

I’ll agree with that in part as I think this will be a closer game than Pitt fans want.  Not due to players motivations or coaching letdown or anything of that ilk – I just think Duke will score points against us.

My thoughts:

Pitt 41 – Duke 35

HTP!!!

64 thoughts on “POV’s Prediction Thread: Duke

  1. I actually picked Pitt to win last week! This week I think weather is a factor and it will be more of a run vs run d game. That clearly favors Pitt.

    Panthers 31
    Puke 17

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  2. Pitt 35, Duke 25

    Pitt is up 28-17 midway through the 4th quarter.
    Duke puts together a TD drive and adds 2 to pull to within a field goal.
    However, the Panthers add on another TD of their own to bury the Devils.

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  3. Reed – One thing you may want to consider in this prediction is that 4 HS games are being played at Heinz today and rain expected tomorrow. I suspect the field will not be in great shape.

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  4. I do not believe Pitt will come down much from their “high” from last weeks Clemson game. With the successive losses to VT and Miami it looked bad for Pitt going to Clemson. But the stunning win at Clemson gives this team the chance to finish their 2016 season in style. Pitt 35 Duke 21

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  5. True on the field. We will win this game but how under miserable circumstances. With rain it probably wont be ideal weather to throw. According to Weather Undergound Pittsburgh, https://www.wunderground.com/us/pa/pittsburgh rain and cold tomorrow kickoff at 43 degrees and partly cloudy, After morning rain ending at 1 nothing till snow at 8 pm when its 38. of course weather forecasters are almost never correct. Assuming crumy field but no rain during game. Pitt 38 Duke 20.
    HAIL TO PITT.

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  6. Too lazy to go back and look but I believe the Duke QB is a freshman? I think he’s of a bigger ilk as well. Just wondering about his hand size though, some of these QB’s do not throw well with a wet ball. (did that last sentence sound as perverted as it made me feel?) Well anyways I think Conner runs right, Conner runs left, and Conner’s runs all day on these guys as do other backs as mentioned above. PITT controls the clock and the score could be lower than usual. Maybe no new records for Dukie?

    I’ll be watching for the subs to get more playing time again this week and I love that. PITT needs to give them the old one two again this week yet keep it fair and square while really giving them the business. <(this worked last week sooo…)….

    PITT—38
    Duke—24

    yours truly waltspappy err I mean …ike

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  7. Pitt 35

    Duke 22

    A bad field yes but Connor gains 100 and Ollison makes his triumphant return by gaining 100 and rumbles in the mud.

    A good day to be a Panther fan.

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  8. Oh yea, I did have to laugh at loud at Reed’s dig about Ollison not playing. The man just loves Narduzzi to death…..and no one get upset at me, it’s kind of a joke with a sprinkle of truth.

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  9. Wet and windy. Passing against us might not be as easy as it has been, particularly deep balls. I see us sticking mostly to a run game. We win 36 – 24.

    H2P

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  10. I was going to say we score 50 but with the weather and sloppy field I will ratchet it down…to 48. 48-24. The good guys double the Dookies.

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  11. Wet field bodes better for the Duke WR (who knows where he’s going) than the Pitt CB/S who is already clueless on a dry field.
    Jet sweeps less effective on sloppy field (tough to cut up the field), but ever present shovel pass possibly more effective.
    Hopefully Pitt O-line can open holes to give Pitt RBs a chance to eat clock with long punishing drives that lead to 7 and not 3. Lets hope for an Ollison sighting.
    Good Guys 24 – Devils 21
    Attendance 30k

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  12. Espn Insider has an article entitled : Coaches on the Rise

    Colorado’s Mike MacIntyre leads coaches on the rise this season.

    I know Dave Clawsen of Wake Forest is also on the list, as it says this about him:

    CLAWSON MAY BE A HOT COMMODITY
    Dave Clawson had a difficult job considering Wake Forest’s academic restrictions, and now he has the Demon Deacons bowl eligible. That makes him an attractive candidate for other like-minded schools, writes Adam Rittenberg

    Did the Nard Dog make the List ? Who has an Insider subscription, Please Copy and paste the whole article on here. Thanks beforehand 🙂

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  13. John – I, like you, was in the minority last week and predicted a Pitt win vs Clemscum.

    This week, I see our Panthers winning this game on the ground and in the trenches 38-24.

    The wind will play a factor and cause both teams to run the ball, playing right into the strength of Pitt FB.

    Conner with a big game on offense – we should see his roommate (R. Ibrahim) get a few touches on offense with Moss getting hurt last week.

    On D, look for the Hawaiian to wreak havoc and the LB-er corp to make plays all over the field – ikr. Wirginis, Brightwell, Caprara, Bam and Galambos. Hamlin Island, no relation to the Hawaiian will make a few nice plays in front of his home town crowd and against the Duke FR QB.

    Blewitt makes one from the right hash and QH runs a kick back for a score in a fun and entertaining afternoon in Pitt Stadium at Heinz Field.

    Beat Down the Blue Devils!

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  14. Oh and Cheesehead Paulie is on the list as well.

    Paul Chryst, Wisconsin
    Age: 51
    2016 record: 8-2
    Record at school: 18-5
    Overall record: 37-24

    Chryst considers Wisconsin a destination job, and for good reason, as he was born in Madison and played and coached for the Badgers. The 51-year-old is most likely a UW lifer, but it shouldn’t stop other schools from pursuing a coach who has done an incredible job guiding the Badgers into playoff contention despite one of the nation’s toughest schedules and middling quarterback play. Chryst is a first-rate playcaller and talent developer. While Wisconsin is the perfect fit for him, the school also has lost coaches because of its frugal reputation.

    But Paulie is not going anywhere unless Godfather Barry says so.

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  15. Pitt shows it is for real tomorrow with a dominating performance again on offense while our defensive secondary lets the bad guys score 4 TDs.
    Pitt – 42
    The Devilish Blues – 28.

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  16. OK, I’m in the ATL for a couple days, so I can post while some of yinz are still awake and sober. I did pick Pitt to cover last week, which panned out…. I think most POVers’ spreads were under 21, so that’s no big whoop.

    Duke has one of the better scoring D’s we’ve faced, and I’m thinking Pitt’s game plan will somewhat conservative to avoid turnovers, both of which may suppress our really great O. Duke should score a bit more than it’s average, so I’m thinking 33-28 Pitt (2 rush TD, one special teams TD, One pass, a FG and a Safety.) Hope I’m wrong. I could use a laugher.

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  17. UPitt… Welcome back and thanks so much for sharing your Moms obit..I looked for it earlier in the week in the Uniontown paper but couldn’t find it .. She’s a beautiful lady ..I bet she is ready for tomorrow’s game from her Heavenly perch

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  18. umm 2 of peterman’s touchdown passes against clemson were long throws

    unless throwing the ball 30-35 yards past the LOS and 45-50 yards from where peterman was standing to orndoff isn’t a long throw

    unless throwing the ball 20-25 yards past the LOS and 35-40 yards from where peterman was standing to conner isn’t a long throw

    also 1 long completion to parrish and 1 to weah and several other long attempts to weah that peterman overthrow

    the ball was definitely aired out vs clemson

    unless the definition of long pass has changed and it has to go 40-50 yards in the air from the LOS to be considered airing it out now

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  19. UPitt, you mom had to have a beautiful soul also to be involved with DHS…I worked in behavioral health for 40 years. They make the system work.

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  20. Oh the Emel prediction.

    Since the Tea Leaves were not consulted last week, thought I better go back to them.

    They read Pitt winning 35 to 20 for Puke. (since someone already had 35-21) (the Leaves read 21 however)

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  21. Upitt – My prayers for your loss.

    BigB – Happy to split the $1M with you but you do know that you have to exactly predict the correct score. I won a few weeks ago on closeness but only got $5K. Reed does send out the check promptly.

    Won’t be commenting for awhile. Going on a family cruise Sunday. Thanks Reed.

    PITT basketball won today. Down double digits but came back.

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  22. Pitt 38
    Duke 28

    Pitt goes up 35-21 early in the 4th quarter, duke gets a td then pitt a fg. A late turnover deep in pitt territory stops a duke comeback before pitt fans have a chance to really get out there on the ledge.

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  23. Again so sorry Mark (UPitt). Been looking for words but they are just not there. Didn’t know the nature of your Mom’s illness. Hope you find a calm in her relief. God Bless you and your entire family.

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  24. Pitt 44- Duke 45. Missed extra pt

    UPitt… Your mom was beautiful. My mom, also great looking,was born in Hopwood. Both she and my dad went to Uniontown High. Dads funeral was at Fergason Home.
    Lost my mom at age 22. Miss her everyday!

    I travel over rt 40 everytime I come up to Pitt. Cannot make it tomorrow. Got stuck in DC on business.
    Have a cigar for me. And put a dollar in the Nemacolin Casino slot for me in honor of our mom’s!

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  25. Pitt – 10
    Bad smug guys in blue – 28

    I see us shitting the bed after last week.
    Hopefully, the wind kicks up and Doooook can’t throw the ball but we can run it

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  26. Gasman, you are eerily right about ALS striking hard working, caring, people….Will be thinking about you, and your mom at Heinz tomorrow , Mark . Dr Tom got my original score so I’ll add a field goal. PITT wins 45-28…

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  27. I haven’t been this confident in the Panthers ability to bring home another win in a very, very long time.

    Anybody that experienced that game at Death Valley, in person, probably sensed the same thing that we did at the conclusion of that contest. The determination shown by our guys to bring home that victory will not be allowed to evaporate going forward. That kind of MOJO doesn’t get squandered.
    Such self-realization, exposing this team’s true potential, is the kind of thing that separates that obscure PGA golfer from the pack for a series of subsequent tournament victories after breaking through his own psychological barriers that had kept him from ascending to the next level.

    The most impressive fact, was this team did that with guys like Hamlin, Edwards, Taleni, Roy, Herndon, Matthews, etc. A bunch of guys who have been thrown into the fray to be tested in battle out of necessity due to our rash of injuries and they have succeeded.

    Today will demonstrate whether my confidence in this squad is warranted or not. Self realization is always productive, sometimes in a good way, sometimes in a bad way. That Clemson game was a milestone game that validated all that Narduzzi has been preaching. So this time, it’s all for the good of Pitt. Hail to Pitt!

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  28. Whoe’s ready. Parkways open and the field is pretty chewed up after 4 wpial games yesterday, take the under,vegas dosen’t know about the wpial.. My theme is whether the panthers can continue their excellant play two weeks in a row against an excellant coach

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  29. Upitt, anyone who can do 20 years in state government deserves a very special place in heaven. Celebrate her life today with your family and friends. We POVers are there with you in spirit.

    H2P

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  30. UPitt – Condolences to you and your family. All I can offer is that the wisdom of this quote applies to your Mom’s life:

    “Don’t cry because it’s over; smile because it happened.”

    But crying is okay on this tough day.

    Bless wishes.

    Like

  31. Upittbaseball, your mom was a very pretty lady. Her obit shows a loving and giving person. She died too young.

    By the way, Upittbasebll, you have a good heart

    Like

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