“It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future”
The time has come for all of us guys who predicted last week’s outcome correctly to give it another shot for Saturday’s game against Duke. Do not count me in on the above – I figured Pitt would lose by 17 points.
Yesterday we had POV’s Know the Enemy article so if you read that it might help with your choice for tomorrow… or not. Honestly this season has been a tricky one in predicting games, at least it has been for me. I sit at .500 in my picks.
One thing that has been constant, and IMO will most probably stay constant, is our terrible pass defense. I’d say it was clicking along at a steady rate of passing yards per game given up by the Panthers but that isn’t true either.
We actually dropped one spot in the national rankings from #126 to #127 after we gave up 586 yards to Clemson. Yes – it has been a record-setting year for Pitt and we can now add most yards given up in an ACC game to our list of Pitt records. It is so bad it isn’t even enjoyable to make fun of any longer.
The strange thing is that we have won six games while doing this – and will probably add one to the win column while letting the Duke QB slip our DBs a roofie and have his way with them. Hell, he doesn’t even need to do that… he just has to show up and throw the ball anywhere past the line of scrimmage.
Duke’s top three receivers are 5’10”, 6’5″ and 6’1″ so we’ll see them throw the fade every third pass. Of course that doesn’t make any sense but neither does giving up 343 ypg and 2.1 passing TDs per game.
So – predictions: Here are some numbers to consider when making your decisions courtesy of Oddsshark.com. As you can see here Duke hasn’t been too shabby on the offensive side of the ball. That 231 yards passing will be higher Saturday and their 173 ypc rushing will be lower – if Pitt holds to form.
Another nice thing is that Duke has given up yards on the ground so expect James Conner and anyone in a Pitt uniform not named Ollison to have some big gainers on the ground.
This is an interesting bit of info and one that I hadn’t paid much attention to before.
You can see from the chart on the left that Pitt scores a point for every 11.34 yards it has on offense – that is pretty darn good.
Duke giving up 15.58 yards per pass looked wrong to me until I looked it up in the NCAA stats lines. Indeed they do – and that is the 2nd worse ypp average in the nation.
Hear that Coach Canada? Time for you to air out the ball and get Peterman some more opportunities to throw for big yardage and TDs. His five TDs last week is a great stat but they weren’t very long plays. We’ll take that anyway of course but this Duke game can be a great opportunity to get more of a balanced offense then we had seen before the Clemson game.
Here are the major stats for Duke again…
What all this leads to is the odds makers picking Pitt by…
I’ll agree with that in part as I think this will be a closer game than Pitt fans want. Not due to players motivations or coaching letdown or anything of that ilk – I just think Duke will score points against us.
Pitt 41 – Duke 35