POV’s Pitt vs ‘Nova Prediction Thread

OK – the time has come, the die will be cast and on Saturday afternoon we’ll have a little bit better idea of what we have in the 2016 version of the Pitt Panthers football team.

Will we look like a team with equal strengths across the board?  Or will we be shaking our heads at 4:30 and wondering how we are going to shore up our glaring weaknesses?

I’ll go first with a prediction then you guys follow suit.  If you have the time explain whos, whats and whys you factored in to come to your final score conclusion.  Also- put down what you think will be the final score as there will be prizes throughout the season.

Offense: Conner’s return will be great but we won’t see him for the whole game.  But we will get a chance to see Chawntez Moss , Hall and the slimmed-down Ollison running the ball.  I think we start out with running the first two series then start blending in the passes.

We’ll take some downfield shots early on to Mathews and Weah to get then accustomed to the feel of pigskin slapping into their hands… then it will be off to the races.

Defense:  ‘Nova is going to run straight at our interior DL and have some success.  We’ll see DLs Camp and Watts play a lot in the 2nd half as a rehearsal for later on in the season when one of them becomes a starter.  We get over three sacks with a true FR getting one of them

They will also throw some short passes and get long gains on those completions with YAC.  Our LBs will be sluggish out there at first then tighten up in the 2nd half.  They’ll hit two deep throws though.

Production:  Peterman throws for 200+ yards then Stocker comes in and passes for around 100 yards. Stocker also has a nice 20+ yard run.

Conner starts and gets sat down after he scores one TD.  Ollison will be the leading rusher.  Weah is leading yardage receiver based on the deep ball,  but Ford has the most catches. Orndoff scores a passing TD.

I don’t think we see DiNucci on Saturday although I’d like to be able to gauge what he does in an actual game.

We get three turnovers and give up an INT (Stocker).

Overall:  It will be a close game through the 1st half… maybe 10-3 or 14-7 Pitt and the fans get restless.  Then we start moving away with some quick scores in the beginning or the 3rd quarter for a 14 point win.  After the game fans will talk about Conner’s return and be surprised that Stocker can actually throw the ball.

31-17 Pitt.

Notes: here is a bit of info I forgot to put in yesterday’s article about Villanova… it is their NCAA stats page and rankings from 2015.

villa statsYou can see that their offense was pretty good against the competition they faced.  A team 175 pass efficiency rating us truly excellent.  20121218_inq_robertson18-a83neeTheir QB, SR John Robertson was the #1 passer in the FCS division and had great stats with 197/301 (65%) for 2846 yards, 35 TDs to 3 INTs and a passer rating of 181.25.

35 TDs guys… hope our DBs are ready, he can throw a nice deep pass.

Oh, and this is somewhat scary: 

The SOB graduated on me last season… we’ll face a different not nearly so good QB.

From the Pitt media dept.

On a separate note and for some fun:  I’ve been requested to present a lecture on my Coast Guard career at the county library (#1 library in the USA in 2014!!).  It will be on Nov 10th and I’ll make it interesting and fun… about 60-90 minutes. Drinks on me afterward… or before…

Semper Paratus: Adventure and History in the Tales of the U.S. Coast Guard

Date: Thursday, November 10, 2016
Time: 7:00 PM – 8:30 PM
Branch: Central Library, 10375 Little Patuxent Pkwy, Columbia, MD 21044

Discover the missions, history, and achievements of the U. S. Coast Guard as Lieutenant Commander Reed Kohberger, USCG, Ret., imparts his knowledge and experiences from his 33 years of active duty service. Discussion includes his years at sea and his work in Search and Rescue, Emergency Response Policy, and Marine Safety Inspections.

Lieutenant Commander Reed Kohberger retired from the US Coast Guard in 2011 after 33 years of active duty. He was a “Mustang” advancing through the enlisted ranks to Chief Petty Officer, where he was the Operations Center Supervisor at numerous commands. He then advanced through the Warrant Officer ranks to Warrant Officer 4. The Coast Guard awarded him a meritorious promotion to Lieutenant. He was assigned into the Marine Safety field and became a Senior Marine Inspector. LCDR Kohberger retired out of Coast Guard HQ where he had been a Regulations Development Manager and the Coast Guard’s formal Nation State to Nation State Liaison Officer to the Makah, Quileute and Klallam Native Peoples tribes in the Puget Sound area.

*Registration is preferred. Register online or by calling 410-313-7800.


124 thoughts on “POV’s Pitt vs ‘Nova Prediction Thread

  1. @ Reed, good luck with your speaking engagement. If it is anything like your podcast you will have them on the edge of their seats for the entire lecture.


  2. Wish I was as confident as you are Reed about this first game. I’ve been following Pitt for so long, I never know what to expect in any game until at least the first quarter is over.

    I think we will win the game but I don’t think it will be the blowout that you expect late, although I agree that the Panthers will wear the Wildcats down due to better conditioning and throwing in fresh troops towards the end.

    My player predictions are as follows, first I think we are disappointed with Weah once again with his inability to catch the damn ball. I also think that Pitt surprises us with their pass rush efficiency and end up with more than three sacks. Both Hendrix & Price get multiple sacks.

    We run more than we pass and although Peterman proves accurate on his throws, His passing efficiency is negatively affected by Weah’s inability to catch the ball.

    Conner scores two TDs before sitting down and Pitt wins by 14.


  3. From: E.J. Borghetti

    Re: Final Coach Narduzzi Media Briefing

    Coach Pat Narduzzi’s final media briefing of the week will be held at the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on Thursday at 1 p.m. This will be the standard time on Thursday for the balance of the season.


  4. BTW Reed, Robertson is old news. He was hurt last year with a knee injury and a RS freshman Zack Bednarczyk took over at QB. The kid well, but he’s no Robertson.
    That’s who we face on Saturday, NOT so scary.


  5. My score, the same as yours, 31-17 Pitt wins. How we get there is different though. We score often and early up by 21 at the half. Our second string D let’s them close the gap to 14 by game’s end.


  6. OK, here goes
    1) Villanova scores this first time they have the ball.
    2) we will be down at the half!
    3) we look very bad and struggle
    4) we do just enough, score late, and win 27-17

     For some sick reason I have more of a Upitt view of this season than a DK view. I hope this is just silly jitters, but I can't shake the feeling!


  7. Reed – Congrats on the speaking engagement, should be very engaging!

    Offense – I think we will see the starters for the entire first half, unless the game gets out of control early then Narduzzi will begin to play the back-ups to protect silly injuries. I know I have read elsewhere that the first play may be a deep ball, but I dont see anything other than a hand-off to Conner for an off tackle run of 5+ to start the game. The sell-out crowd will give a standing ovation and the team will surround him in celebration. Conner finishes the day with a 100+ yard, 2 touchdown day. NP has a strong mid 200 yd day passing. The RB bench is emptied in the second half. Moss has a 100 yd day as well. Overall I think our line will wear down Nova and dictate the pace early.

    Defense – The wildcard. I believe early our interior linemen will struggle early but will be offset by Price and Hendrix pressure in the backfield. I really don’t see Nova being able to handle the edge rush of these two. The LB core will be able to play up to handle the run defense without giving up 5+ypc. Any air attack from Nova should be able to be handled by our DBs and Whitehead. I see someone picking off a pass for a TD as the pressure builds on the Nova QB to get rid of the ball quickly. It will be interesting to see the CB match-ups early and how we fair. Whitehead could be busy early.

    Pitt 48-10


  8. Can’t believe the optimistic Doc Tom isn’t too confident about this one.

    My take – Narduzzi has the men ready to play on both sides of the ball and Pitt goes up by 2-3 TDs at the half with the Cats lucky to get 3 on the board. Conner has 100+ and 2 tds in the first half then sits the remainder of the game. Pitt continues rolling in the second and wins big, 47-10.


  9. Pitt will win the game. The score will be 35-21 although the game will not be that close. Two of ‘Nova’s score will come against the scrubs.

    I agree with your assessment that the linebackers will have a tough time at the beginning of the game. One of the starters will be replaced while the game is still in doubt. Pitt will experiment with two LBs and an additional defensive back in a 4-2-5 scheme. Weah will have beginning of game yips and drop several balls before catching a pass.

    Stocker will complete more passes than he has rushing attempts in his debut as a backup.

    James Conner will get more than five yards on his first carry but will be a blocker on the first play from scrimmage for Pitt. He will play only about half of the third quarter if that. He will also be given rests for several series during the first half as Pitt’s staff ease him back as well as save him for PSU.

    Time to get this show started! Hail To Pitt!


  10. Pitt 37 – 17

    Remember, Pitt is going to stay generic on O and D, I don’t expect Orndoff to have a catch. That will be saved for next week. Lots of running and medium to short passes.

    Each back will get about the same number of carries. Lots of back up OL and D will play.

    There will be an effort to get all the inexperienced receivers some catches. Weah will have a good game.
    Henderson scores the first TD after a short pass and long run.

    Pitt dominates them.


  11. Offensively, I see James Conner breaking his first carry for 64 yards and a TD. A lot of running by Pitt this game. Ibrahim will catch a pass out of the backfield. Moss has 94 yess mostly in the second half. Two deep balls thrown by Peterman, one is caught by Weah? I hope. The rest of the passing game consists of short passes. Defensive ends tear it up and Price looks like an NFL star in the making. Don’t really see any terrible plays for our defense except for one spanked punt. If that even counts as d.


  12. Reed – I agree with your predictions. I will be in da Burgh to see it first hand and will offer some thoughts next week. I also plan to make your book talk in November so bring plenty of $$ to take care of my bar tab!


  13. I do believe our offensive line can dominate the Villanova defense. And as such I expect Pitt to dominate the game offensively. If Pitt stays away from turning the ball over I see Pitt winning by 3 touchdowns plus 3. Pitt dominates time of possession.

    Pitt 38 Villanova 14


  14. 31-17 seems way too close. I think Conner has 3 TD’s and Ollison/Hall add 2 more. Probably 1 passing TD too. 42-10, if Nova even scores 10 that is…


  15. Pitt 45, Vanillanova 17. Pitt dominates on both sides of the ball, gives up some late points with the 3rd string in. JC 110 yds on 11 carries, 2 TDs, J Weah 3 catchs 1 TD, (1 drop). Defense has 3 sacks, a fumble, and an Int.



  16. 41-17 … We score 5 TDs and two field goals… Lots of substitutions . Jester catches his first pass of his career but it won’t be a long ball… He will go on to catch four passes thrown to him but does taken intermediate reception in for a TD and Duzz works in other wideouts who are untested… No one is injured… Everybody has a belly full of ice cold beer and has enjoyed looking at the new huge midfield script logo… It’s a happy day for Pitt fans


  17. Pitt 34 – Villanova 23 Pitt will be very vanilla on both offense and defense almost as if they are trying to keep their practices secret. Pitt bolts out to 28-7 halftime lead and a few meaningless TDs by Nova and a very conservative effort by Pitt in the second half make it closer than it seems at the end. No standout stars on either side just a solid “meh” effort which is exactly what HCPN wants a certain team to see. H2P!


  18. Pitt finished 37th in the country in total defense last year. I predict Pitt’s defense with Hendrix now playing finishes in the Top 25 Nationally this year and Pitt’s defense under year two of the Nard dog plan is better than the offense. Villanova gets shut out.


  19. I say it will be 31-17. Just kidding but that will be close to the final score. PITT’s history, which I never understand why anyone would consider it years later, dictates the game will be a little close. Not this year. The offense will be slow out of the gate but the defense will be flying all over the field.

    PITT wins 38-10 with back-ups and everyone wondering if PITT held back the game plan for psu.


  20. Reed

    What library and where? Free drinks if we can find you.

    45-20. We look good from the start. They get late score when we have the reserves in.



  21. Pitt34-13 Pitt tough on defense will play hard. Second group gives up td or defensive turnovers do takes seven easy. We run a lot. Wear them down and will show little getting ready for next week Conners starts but rest a lot it’s a long punishing season we need him down the road h2p. See you all at the game


  22. 42-13 Pitt Panthers!

    The O starts slowly as we have a brand new system. Penalties will be part of the problem along with ironing out the kinks. However, we simply have too strong of an O line and too many power backs that simply wear The Vill down. Some nice passes will be sprinkled in also.
    The D ends will have 5-6 sacks. DTs will bend but not break and the corners will make some mistakes.


  23. Pitt wins 41-20.

    Pitt turns the ball over on the first drive. Villanova takes a 3-0 lead.

    It is all Pitt after that as they go ahead 31-3 by the end of the 3rd quarter. Backups ease off the gas.

    The linebackers will total more sacks than the defensive line.

    Pitt rushes for more than 350 yards and throws for 200. Villanova rushes for 61 and throws for 250.

    There will be more than 15 total penalties.

    Pitt will suffer three minor injuries that will affect next week’s starting lineups.


  24. Villanova has no answer for Quadree, who scores 2 TDs. Pitt’s defense is stingy, especially tough in the red zone. Pitt’s LBs have an excellent game.

    Pitt wins 27 to 13, but everyone attending the game is swore to secrecy and cannot disclose anything that they saw until the season is over.

    Go Pitt.


  25. Pitt 42
    Nova 6

    From what I’ve seen from Nova the last several years is they are small and terrible. Like RMU…
    And they have a couple good starters out.


  26. Didn’t realize Nova’s QB was that good. #1 in FCS eh. 35 TD’s and only 3 picks.

    Well obviously one of the keys to the game will be :
    Generating consistent pressure on the QB or this kid is good enough to pick our weak link, the DB’s apart.
    So the new DE’s are going to have to play well, so we don’t have to blitz to get pressure.

    This Nova QB won the Walter Payton Award(top player in FSC) in 2014

    The Good News for Pitt is…….that kid GRADUATED last year. You must have been looking at Nova’s old media guide from last year(2015) which is still posted on Nova’s website.

    The kid that will be playing QB for Nova (Zack Bednarcyzk) is not nearly as scary. Only 10 TD passes.
    But this kid is a dual threat QB (you know how we love them) and he was also Nova’s leading rusher of 2015 with 617 yards. Oy vey, we better be much better this year on containment. Kid avg’d about 5 ypc.

    So since it’s not the 35 TD kid, I like our chances much better, for a blowout.

    Pitt 41 Nova 21


  27. Reed, the timing of your talk is awesome. I know you will remember the Veteran’s a day early.

    I think Jester Weah gets a WR screen for his first catch. That should give him some confidence. Hopefully he catches it. I think Orndorff has a big game down the seam against slower linebackers while the safeties are out providing support to the CB’s and providing run support.

    The video above shows a slow developing offense which should help our pass rush. I see a couple of sack/fumbles which allows us to put points on the board. Prediction is 1-0 after Saturday.

    Score was taken so I rounded up to 48-17


  28. Jackagain – I think you take the prize! If the QB in the highlight Reed showed above, is their starter, and he’s nor playing, it won’t be a game. I counted only 3 passes where the ball hit the receiver in stride. And the defenders were way off in a lot of cases. Most receivers stopped, turned around, or otherwise had to wait on the ball.

    I predict we get 4 ints; 1 for a pic 6. On offense, we steam roll them. I said earlier this week that we wouldn’t punt once this game, and I’m sticking to it. We run, run ,run, and only throw enough ( and short, only) to show our countrified cousins that they better not pack the box. We have 3 100 yard backs, and win 45-3

    That’s my story, and I’m stickin’ to it!


  29. Penn State has plans to honor former coach Joe Paterno before kickoff of the Nittany Lions’ game against Temple on Sept. 17, according to the team’s promotional calendar.


    No comments being allowed on this story. Most if not all cbs sports stories always have comments.

    Disgusting Main Stream Media. This is why whatever it takes to keep the horrors of Creepy Valley alive in the public’s mind, is not off base.

    Classless is allowing a pedophile enabler to be honored, not wearing a T-shirt.


  30. It hasn’t rained down here for weeks, we are in the middle of a drought (which is typical for this area in the summer over the last 20 years) again. But wouldn’t you know the Steelers are in town for a game this evening and we’re having torrential rains.

    Maybe a mudder, which is always fun 🙂


  31. We win 7 games this year.

    Narduzzi has potential but seems more talk than performance so far.

    We win 27- 17

    Who are the 2 ACC Schools considering Big 12?

    More important matters!

    True or False?

    The endzones will
    Actually be painted and not stripes like 1945.

    Mrs. Jones fifth grade class from Carrick Will do the 50
    Yard line and you need a telescope to see Pitt Script it is so small?

    Barnes has to buy 7 extra tickets off a scalper for his concubine of wives and large inflated fat head.?

    Lots of yellow and Pederson somehow shows up and says 58k fans were there?

    I have a bad feeling we lose a very good player to injury. Hope I’m wrong.

    Im Reed’s illegitate son procreated at a a Neil Young Concert in Austin?

    The uniforms will be ugly and we will turn the channel if it is even on tv because we will think it is Notre Dame vs Utah State or Navy vs Airporce. ?


  32. Good news for the Steelers, the temps have dropped by 20 degrees with the rain so it would have been in the 90’s for the kickoff, now only low 70’s. Kickoff moved back 30 minutes due to heavy rain.


  33. Funny stuff upitt. I guess the Eagles (captains) can’t pick the uni’s until after the cool blue ones debut against (say it ain’t so) Ga. Tech.


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